Presentation on theme: "Economic/Market Update – March 2013 Daryl Montgomery March19, 2013 Copyright 2013, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not intended."— Presentation transcript:
Economic/Market Update – March 2013 Daryl Montgomery March19, 2013 Copyright 2013, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Major Events Bank crisis in Cyprus reawakens trouble in EU. Serious bank lending problems in EU and U.S. U.S. Fiscal Problems - Sequestration started March 1 st. - Debt Ceiling limit of $16.4 trillion must be raised by May 19 th. Detroit in receivership. Significant selloff in municipal bond CEFs. Retail Sales (up 4.6% yr/yr) and employment supposedly improving.
Trouble in EU EU decides to tax bank deposits in Cyprus as part of bailout. Bank run follows. - Bank deposits 5 times GDP. - possible bail-in for bond holders. Now there is a danger of bank runs in all bailed out countries (past and future). Bank deposits experienced significant decline throughout EU in January. Economy continues to fail. Unemployment in EU 11.9%, Spain 26%, Greece 26.4%. Credit crunch in Italy.
Corporate Bank Debt in US and EU
Loans vs Deposits in Major Banks
U.S. Banks not Lending
U.S. Bank Lending Long Term
U.S. Monetary Base
US Fiscal State National Debt - $16.7 trillion. Debt to GDP 107% State and Local Debt - $3.0 trillion Unfunded Liabilities - $123 trillion Debt does not include Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA obligations or Fed Balance Sheet. Trade Deficit 2012 was $540 billion. Projected budget deficit for FY 2013 is now $845 billion.
U.S. Economy Fed printing approximately $40 billion a month in QE3. Interest rates have been 0 since 2008, Fed has promised to keep that rate until Employment supposedly improving, but seasonal adjustments largely responsible for better numbers. Retail sales improving because of inflation, but this is not admitted.
Central Bank Money Printing
US Inflation: Reported vs. Actual
US GDP Adjusted for Correct Inflation Figures
Detroit Abandoned Buildings #1
Detroit Abandoned Buildings #2
Detroit Abandoned Buildings #3
Detroit Abandoned Buildings #4
Detroit Abandoned Buildings #5
Background Material for Charts Moving Averages – 50-day, 200-day, 325-day or 10-week, 40-week, 65 week RSI – relative strength index, 80-overbought, 20 oversold, 50 divides bearish and bullish MACD – moving average convergence divergence, zero divide bullish bearish, peak and bottom numbers variable DMI – Directional Movement Index, +DI (blue), -DI (red) and trend line (black).