Presentation on theme: "Economic/Market Update – December 2012 Daryl Montgomery December11, 2012 Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not."— Presentation transcript:
Economic/Market Update – December 2012 Daryl Montgomery December11, 2012 Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
This is the 5 Year Anniversary of the Beginning of the Recession in 2007
News in June 2010 from the UK
News in Dec 2012 from the UK UK on triple-dip recession alert after industrial slowdown
The View from the U.S.
Hows the Recovery Going? ECRI says U.S. recession began in July. EU officially entered recession in Nov. BOE says UK could be facing triple-dip recession. Japan sinks into yet another recession (announced yesterday). GDP down 3.5% in Q3. All these countries have 0% or close to 0% interest rates and have been printing money. China GDP at 7.4% (slows for 7 th Quarter). India GDP growth lowest in 10 years.
U.S. Employment in the 2000s The U.S. needed to create almost 9 million extra jobs since recession began, not even back to number at starting point. We are 12.5 million short.
Falling Labor Force Participation Rate Right of green line is after recession began.
Food Stamp Use Hits Another Record
Central Bank Policies U.S. and Japan at 0% interest rates. Fed has said it would keep rates at 0% until UK at 0.50% and EU at 0.75%. All 4 engaging in some for of QE (Quantitative Easing), a form of money printing. U.S. QE3 has no time limit, no $ limit, no security type limit. Operation Twist may be ending. No more bullets in case of crisis.
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Wheres the QE3?
U.S. Monetary Base – Measure of Future Inflation
M2 Money Supply
European Debt Crisis Greece gets another bailout. We have settled the Greece question- Holland France is downgraded by Moodys Monti resigns in Italy, Juncker resigns again. Spanish banks loaded up on govt debt. Spain has still not asked for bailout. Credit Suisse announces negative interest rates on interbank deposits. EU awarded Nobel Peace Prize!
How to Know if Theres a Depression
Background Material for Charts Moving Averages – 50-day, 200-day, 325-day or 10-week, 40-week, 65 week RSI – relative strength index, 80-overbought, 20 oversold, 50 divides bearish and bullish MACD – moving average convergence divergence, zero divide bullish bearish, peak and bottom numbers variable DMI – Directional Movement Index, +DI (blue), -DI (red) and trend line (black).
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Major US Indices:
Dow Jones Industrials 3-Years Weekly 10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Dow Jones 5-Years Weekly Volume
Dow Jones Transports 3-Years Weekly 10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD