Presentation on theme: "The information behind GBO-3:"— Presentation transcript:
1 The information behind GBO-3: 110 National ReportsBiodiversity Indicators PartnershipBiodiversity Futures Study500 scientific papersOpen review processThe third edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook, produced for the Convention on Biological Diversity or CBD, has been four years in the making. Two major scientific studies were carried out specifically for GBO-3. One brought together a range of different organizations under the banner of the Biodiversity Indicators Partnership. Co-ordinated by the UN Environment Programme’s World Conservation Monitoring Centre in Cambridge (UNEP-WCMC), this partnership assembled all the available evidence helping to give a global picture of the state and trends of biodiversity in The second major study, led by the Diversitas network and UNEP-WCMC, united a large group of scientists from a wide range of disciplines to analyze the plausible futures for biodiversity in the course of the 21st century – focussing especially on the impact of different scenarios on human well-being and the potential for so-called “tipping points” to be crossed. In addition to these studies, more than 110 reports from national governments to the CBD have provided essential information on the current state of biodiversity. Finally, around 500 scientific papers and assessments from various organisations have been analysed in the drafting of the Outlook. The whole drafting process has been very open and rigorous: two separate drafts were placed on the internet for open peer review during the course of 2009, and comments from some 200 organizations and individuals were taken into account. The second draft was reviewed by a panel of scientists, and the whole production process was overseen by an Advisory Board.
2 GBO-3 is an output of the processes under the Convention. Parties to the Convention, other Governments, and observer organizations have shaped the OutlookGBO-3 has been prepared by the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, in close collaboration UNEP-WCMC.The production of GBO-3 was enabled by financial contributions from Canada, the European Union, Germany, Japan, Spain and the United Kingdom, as well as UNEP.GBO-3, like its previous two editions, is an output of the processes under the Convention. Parties to the Convention, other Governments, and observer organizations have helped to shape the Outlook through their contributions during various meetings as well as through their comments and inputs to earlier drafts of GBO-3.GBO-3 has been prepared by the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, in close collaboration with the World Conservation Monitoring Centre of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP-WCMC). However numerous partner organizations and individuals from Governments, non-governmental organizations and scientific networks have generously contributed their time, energy and expertise to the preparation of GBO-3, which really is a product of the collective efforts of this community.The production of GBO-3 was enabled by financial contributions from Canada, the European Union, Germany, Japan, Spain and the United Kingdom, as well as UNEP.
3 Biodiversity Futures for the 21st Century StructureBiodiversity in 2010Biodiversity Futures for the 21st CenturyTowards a Strategy for Reducing Biodiversity LossGBO 3 is divided into three main sections. The first, called Biodiversity in 2010, presents a comprehensive picture of the state of biodiversity itself – as far as we can assess it from the evidence; the principal pressures on biodiversity, and the various responses being taken around the world to conserve it and use it sustainably. The second section, called Biodiversity Futures for the 21st Century, reports the outcome of the study of models and scenarios undertaken for the outlook, and describes in particular the tipping points we may be approaching. The final part of the document, Towards a Strategy for Reducing Biodiversity Loss, suggests some possible ways forward: it was not the remit of the Outlook to prescribe particular policies, but it analyses the changes required to move the world onto a better path – and avoid some of the dangerous consequences for humanity that current trends suggest, as we shall see.3
4 2010 Biodiversity Target“to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth”In April 2002, the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, or CBD, agreed the following target: “to achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth.” This pledge was subsequently endorsed by the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg later in 2002, and by the UN general assembly. It was also incorporated as a new target within the Millennium Development Goals, as part of the goal to ensure environmental sustainability. So even though the CBD has near-universal participation, it is important to note that the 2010 Biodiversity Target was signed up to by all member countries of the UN, not just the Parties to that Convention.
5 The 2010 Biodiversity Target has not been met No sub-target completely achievedMost indicators negativeNo government claims successDirect pressures constant or increasingIn the first section of GBO3, Biodiversity in 2010, one of the principal conclusions is that the 2010 Biodiversity Target has not been met. Although there is no single measurement available to track biodiversity – the variability among living things - there are multiple lines of evidence that support this conclusion. [animate] The first is that of 21 subsidiary targets accompanying the main targets, none can be said definitively to have been met at the global level – although some have been partially or locally achieved. There is a full list of those sub-targets in Table 1 of the document, and it is also available in the press pack. [animate] Also, ten of fifteen headline indicators developed by the CBD to measure progress towards the 2010 target are showing trends unfavourable for biodiversity. Those are listed in Table 2. [animate] Another factor to consider is that of more than one hundred national reports to the CBD, not a single government claims to have completely met the biodiversity target at national level – and about one-fifth state explicitly that the target has not been met. [animate] Finally, and crucially, GBO3 has found that the five main pressures directly driving biodiversity loss are either constant or increasing in intensity – they are habitat change, climate change, overexploitation, pollution especially from nutrients, and invasive alien species.
6 The Tropical LPI has declined by almost 60%. The global Living Planet Index (LPI), has declined by more than 30% since 1970,The Tropical LPI has declined by almost 60%.The Temperate LPI showed an increase of 15%, reflecting the recovery of some species populations in temperate regionsFor a fuller view of the current state of biodiversity, take a look at the first section of GBO3, and for more technical detail the website of the Biodiversity Indicators Partnership, The next few slides pick out some highlights.The Living Planet Index (LPI) suggests that globally, the abundance of vertebrate species has fallen by nearly one-third on average between 1970 and 2006, and continues to fall. Notice that the decline is much sharper for tropical species. In fact the indicator suggests that species populations have risen in temperate regions since This does not necessarily suggest that temperate biodiversity is in a better state – it may indicate some recovery following much steeper declines in the more distant past. Nevertheless, the current rates of decline in global species abundance represent a severe and ongoing loss of biodiversity in tropical ecosystems.The LPI monitors more than 7,100 populations of over 2,300 species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish from around the globe. The change in the size of these populations, relative to 1970 (1970 =1.0) is plotted over time. A stable Living Planet value would indicate that there is no overall change in average species abundance, a necessary but not sufficient condition to indicate a halt in biodiversity lossSource: WWF/ZSLSource: WWF/ZSL
7 The Red List Index (RLI) for all these species groups is decreasing. Coral species are moving most rapidly towards greater extinction riskAmphibians are, on average, the group most threatened.The Red List Index tracks the percentage of fully-assessed species groups expected to survive into the future: in other words, whether the risk of extinction is increasing or decreasing over time. In all four of the groups assessed: warm-water corals, birds, mammals and amphibians, the downward slope of the line indicates that the risk of extinction is increasing. The status of coral species has declined most sharply, and amphibians are the group facing the highest extinction risk.A Red List Index value of 1.0 indicates that all species in a group would be considered as being of Least Concern, that is not expected to become extinct in the near future. At the other extreme, a value of 0 indicates that all species in a group have gone extinct. Note that a flat line on this graph would indicate that the risk of extinction was constant – if the rate of biodiversity loss were reducing, the lines should be moving upwards, indicating a reduced risk of extinction.Source: IUCN
8 Livestock breeds at risk The red bars show the percentage of livestock breeds at risk of extinction, and the black bars breeds that are already extinct. More than sixty breeds of livestock are reported to have become extinct just since More than one-fifth of some 7000 livestock breeds amongst 35 domesticated species are judged to be at risk, and the true figure may be much higher as the status of more than one-third is not known. Loss of genetic diversity among both livestock and crops is of concern because it may reduce the ability of agricultural communities and indeed wider society to adapt to future climate conditions.Source: FAO
9 Protected areas increasing … Source: UNEP-WCMCOne of the indicators showing positive trends for biodiversity is the proportion of land and oceans designated as protected areas. This graph shows that protected areas have continued to grow steadily over the years, with more than 120,000 terrestrial protected areas (shown in orange) occupying nearly one-eighth (12.2%) of the total land surface of the Earth. Marine protected areas, although covering a much smaller area, have grown significantly in recent years, concentrated almost entirely in coastal waters.Source: UNEP-WCMC
10 …but large areas still under-represented This map shows, that the protected area is still very far from being fully representative of the world’s biodiversity. The areas in pink are those with less than ten percent protection of a particular ecological region – that is, areas containing a large proportion of shared species and habitats. The 2010 target stipulated that at least ten per cent of each eco-region should be in a protected area, but only 56% of terrestrial eco-regions and just 18% of marine eco-regions have reached that threshold – so an indication that even where the trends are positive, the 2010 target has been missed. Two other aspects to bear in mind for protected areas: more than half of sites judged to be of special importance for biodiversity (for example, holding the last remaining populations of endangered species or significant bird colonies) remain completely unprotected, although level of protection is improving over time; and in a survey of the management effectiveness of 3,080 protected areas only 22% were judged “sound”, 13% “clearly inadequate”, and 65% “basic"Source: UNEP-WCMC
11 Trends in habitats are varied but show declines over all: Wetlands, salt marshes, coral reefs, seagrass beds and sea ice continue to declineExtensive fragmentation of forests and riversMangrove decline slowing (except in Asia)The condition of many terrestrial habitats is deteriorating (degrading)An important indicator of biodiversity is what is happening to the extent of habitats around the world. GBO3 notes that many are in serious decline: notably freshwater wetlands, coastal ecosystems such as salt marshes, coral reefs and seagrass beds; and Arctic sea ice, an important habitat for a wide range of species, has been reducing in extent (as shown in the graph) and thickness in recent years.Ecosystems around the world, especially forests and rivers, are becoming increasingly fragmented, threatening the viability of many species. Although global figures are hard to find, an example is that in the South American Atlantic Forest more than half of the total remaining ecosystem is within 100 metres of the forest edge.The decline of mangrove forests, richly-varied ecosystems of great value to fisheries and for protection of coastal communities, continues. The positive news is that the rate of mangrove loss has slowed globally since the 1990s, but this is not true for Asia, which holds the largest proportion of the world’s mangroves and the most varied – here the rate of loss has accelerated slightly.Source: NSIDC11
12 Amazon loss slowing in Brazil There are also some encouraging recent trends for the world’s larges tropical forest region, the Amazon. This graph shows that the annual rate of loss of the Brazilian Amazon, more than half the total biome, has fallen from a peak of more than 27,000 square kilometres in to just over 7,000 square kilometres in , a decrease of more than 74%. However, the blue line across the top shows that cumulative deforestation is edging towards twenty per cent of the original Amazon Forest, even assuming ambitious targets from the Brazilian government to cut deforestation rates by 80% by As discussed in a later slide, this could take the Amazon into the danger zone of conditions leading to a possible widespread dieback and shift towards savanna-like vegetation.Source: INPE
13 State Pressure Response This slide helps to show some of the patterns revealed by the various indicators of biodiversity. Those in the left-hand column that measure the state of biodiversity, such as species populations and extinction threats, are generally showing negative trends over time. Those in the middle column, tracking the principal direct pressures or threats driving biodiversity loss, are all moving upwards – in other words, also negative. Yet the third column, showing indicators of the responses to biodiversity loss, are all increasing, and therefore showing positive trends – they include the extent of protected areas, adoption of policies to control alien species, and the extent of forests being managed sustainably. The overall message is that despite the many efforts being made around the world to conserve biodiversity and use it sustainably, responses have not yet been adequate to address the scale of biodiversity loss or reduce the pressures being imposed upon biodiversity and the ecosystems it underpins.Source: Butchart etal 2010
14 Trends shown by agreed indicators of progress towards the 2010 biodiversity target: For certain headline indicators used to gauge progress towards the 2010 Biodiversity target the amount and coverage of data is not sufficient to make statements with confidence. However of 15 indicators, Nine show trends unfavourable for biodiversity, 3 show no clear global trend with both and negative changes occurring and only 2 show positive trends. It is interesting to note that the two headline indicators showing positive trends are not directly related to biodiversity but to our responses to its loss.
15 Key Findings:Projections show continuing and accelerating extinctions, habitat loss, changes in distribution and abundance of biodiversityHigh risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and degradation of services from tipping pointsLoss preventable and even reversible with strong, urgent actionThe second section of GBO3, entitled Biodiversity Futures for the 21st Century, is mainly concerned with the results of an analysis of available models that help to project the likely outcome of current trends for biodiversity in the coming decades, and its implications for human societies. Three of its main conclusions are these: Projections of the impact of global change on biodiversity show continuing and often accelerating species extinctions, loss of natural habitat, and changes in the distribution and abundance of species, species groups and biomes over the 21st century; Second, there is a high risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and accompanying broad range of ecosystem services if the Earth’s systems are pushed beyond certain tipping points. Some examples are given in later slides. Finally, the study concludes that biodiversity loss and ecosystem changes could be prevented, significantly reduced or even reversed, if strong action is applied urgently, comprehensively and appropriately, at international, national and local levels.
16 Long lasting/hard to reverse What is a tipping point?ThresholdTime lagSelf-perpetuatingLong lasting/hard to reverseWhat is a tipping point? The diagram helps to explain the concept. Pressures on biodiversity, depicted here as a rolling stone, can push ecosystems beyond what might be termed their safe operating space. Once they enter the danger zone – the red vertical bar in this diagram – they are in danger of crossing a threshold which tips them into an alternative state. The blue arrow shows that actions to increase the resilience of ecosystems, including the conservation of biodiversity, are critical to prevent the tipping point being reached. The study carried out for GBO-3 set out some strict definitions for the tipping points included in the analysis: in each case an ecosystem shifts to a new state; it would cause significant changes to biodiversity and the services to people it underpins, at regional or global scale. The examples also have at least one of the following characteristics: the change becomes self-perpetuating through what is known as a positive feedback – for example, deforestation leads may reduce regional rainfall, leading to greater fire risk, further drying and further dieback of forest; there is a threshold beyond which an abrupt shift of ecological state occurs – although the threshold point can rarely be predicted with precision; the changes are long-lasting and hard to reverse; and a final characteristic of some tipping points is that there is a significant time lag between the pressures driving the change and the appearance of impacts, creating great difficulties in ecological management.A full list of the tipping points considered for the GBO3 is published in one of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s technical series available from:
17 Tipping Point – Amazon dieback Alternative Path Current Path Widespread shift from forest to savanna resulting from the Interaction of deforestation, climate change and firesBecomes more likely at 20%-30% deforestationSelf-perpetuatingRegional rainfall and global climate impacts, massive biodiversity lossKeep deforestation below 20%-30% of original forest areaMinimize use of fire for clearingKeep global climate warming below 2-3 degreesThe possibility of a significant dieback of the Amazon forest still contains large uncertainties. Under the tipping point scenario, there is a widespread shift from moist tropical forest to savanna and seasonal forest, especially in the East and South of the biome. The mechanism causing the shift would be an interaction of deforestation, climate change and the use of fires for clearing forest areas for pasture. While the thresholds are difficult to define precisely, it is known that dieback becomes more likely if between twenty and thirty per cent of the original forest is cleared. A recent modeling study co-ordinated by the World Bank concluded that with 20% deforestation, significant dieback would be triggered by 2025, when coupled with climate change and forest fires. Another feature of the Amazon tipping point is that it is self-perpetuating: a vicious cycle is created, in which fire and dieback become widespread as rainfall levels are reduced. The impacts would be very significantly at both a regional and global level: reduced rainfall could affect agriculture across large parts of the South American continent; the loss of carbon from vegetation and soils could be large enough to significantly influence carbon dioxide concentrations and global climate; and because of the huge variety of species in the Amazon, many with very restricted ranges, widespread dieback would lead to massive biodiversity loss, with much higher reductions in species abundance and extinctions of plants and animals than foreseen in previous global assessments. The measures likely to reduce the risk of Amazon dieback include keeping deforestation below per cent of the original forest area. As we saw in an earlier slide, deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon is already very close to that threshold. Another step would be to minimize the widespread practice of using fire to clear land for pasture and other purposes. The analysis suggests that a precautionary approach to prevent Amazon dieback would include keeping global climate warming below two to three degrees Centigrade.
18 Tipping Points – Freshwater eutrophication Current PathAlternative PathThe buildup of nutrients from fertilizers and sewage shifts freshwater bodies into a eutrophic state causing:Low oxygen levels and widespread kills of plants, fish, invertebratesLoss of nutrition from fisheries, toxic blooms make water unfit for drinking or recreationReduce nutrient inputs from sewage, detergents and agricultureReforestation of watershedsRestoration of wetlandsEconomic incentives to close nutrient cycle on farmsOne of the tipping points facing inland water ecosystems, principally lakes, is that of freshwater eutrophication. Under this scenario, the water body shifts to a euthrophic state, which means that the conditions favour the growth of algae to the detriment of other aquatic life. It is caused by the buildup of nutrients, principally phosphates and nitrates, that run into the water from fertlisers on agricultural land, sewage and detergents. As the algae die and decompose, low oxygen levels lead to widespread kills of aquatic plants, fish and invertebrates. Due to a recycling mechanism, the water body can get locked into a eutrophic state even when the inputs of nutrients are substantially decreased. The impacts will include loss of nutrition as fish species on which people depend are starved of oxygen. Toxic algal blooms can also make the water unfit for drinking, and unsuitable for recreational activities, leading to the loss of tourism income. The principal management option to prevent this tipping point being reached – and to improve the chances of returning to the earlier state once it is passed – is to reduce the inputs of nutrients from sewage, detergents and agriculture. Other options include the reforestation of watersheds to reduce erosion and nutrient run-off from soils; and the restoration of wetlands to help capture and fix nutrients. The development of technology and economic incentives to close the nutrient cycle on farms – in other words preventing runoff of nutrients into water bodies – may also reduce the risk of this tipping point being reached.
19 Tipping Points – Coral reef collapse Current PathAlternative PathBleaching severe with temperature rise great than ca. 2oCOcean acidification prevents corals forming skeletonsReefs become degraded and algae-dominatedLivelihood threat to hundreds of millions through loss of fisheries and tourismReduce local stressors including:Destructive fishing practicesCoastal pollutionOver-exploitation of herbivores such as sea urchins and fishStrict climate mitigation to keep CO2 levels below 450 ppm and 2oC.The coral reef tipping point has potentially devastating implications for biodiversity and human livelihoods. Under this scenario, shallow warm-water reefs become increasingly vulnerable to collapse in coming decades. Two important thresholds may be crossed: severe bleaching of reefs occurs when temperatures rise more than about two degrees above current levels; and ocean acidification linked to higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atomosphere reduces the ability of corals to form their carbonate-based skeletons. The reefs become degraded and dominated by algae. As a result, the tipping point threatens the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people directly dependent on coral reefs, for example through loss of fisheries and tourism. Among the measure that can help prevent this tipping point from being reached are steps that reduce other stresses on coral reefs, and therefore make them more resilient to bleaching and acidification. They include destructive fishing practices such as dynamiting, coastal pollution from sewage and other sources that also promote the growth of algae; and the over-exploitation of creatures such as sea urchins and herbivorous fish that help keep the algae and coral organisms in balance. The prospect of passing this tipping point could provide another argument for strict measures to mitigate climate change, to keep CO2 levels below 450 parts per million, and warming below two degrees Centigrade.
20 Broadening action on biodiversity The final section of GBO-3 looks at the kind of changes that will be needed, if the current failure to slow biodiversity loss is to be rectified; and consequences such as biodiversity tipping points averted. This diagram helps to summarise the principle behind the suggested changes. On the left, the orange arrows indicate that up until now, action in support of biodiversity has focussed on addressing the direct pressures causing its loss and intervening directly to improve the state of biodiversity, for example in programmes to protect particular endangered species. There has been limited action to address the underlying causes of indirect drivers of biodiversity loss, such as demographic change, consumption patterns or the impacts of increased trade. Equally, action has tended not to be focussed specifically on protecting the benefits provided by ecosystems. The blue arrows on the right show that responses from now on must target these two neglected aspects of biodiversity loss, while continuing and strengthening action to reduce direct pressures and intervene to protect threatened species and ecosystems.
21 There is a greater range of options than previously recognized The graph shows projections of global forest cover to 2050, according to various scenarios from four assessments which assume different approaches to environmental concerns, regional co-operation, economic growth and other factors. These include three earlier assessments (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Global Biodiversity Outlook 2 and Global Environmental Outlook 4) and one model (MiniCam, developed for the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). When the different scenarios are considered together, the gap between better and worse outcomes for biodiversity is wider than has been suggested in any one of the earlier assessments. In addition, the MiniCam scenarios shows a greater range still. They mainly represent the contrasting outcomes for forests depending on whether or not carbon emissions from land use change are taken into account in climate change mitigation strategiesSource: Leadley and Pereira etal 2010
22 Scenarios for land use Business as usual Carbon tax including land use This slide shows the potential for different policy options, not specifically linked to biodiversity and conservation, to create radically different outcomes for global land use, and therefore the extent of habitats and the level of biodiversity in future decades. The top chart, representing business as usual, suggests a steady decline in forest cover and increase in cropland to meet food demand. The middle chart shows the projected impact of a scenario in which something equivalent to a global carbon tax provided incentives to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations, including through changes in land use. Under this scenario, there is some expansion of forests, and no significant increase in cropland as land will tend to be used more efficiently. The bottom chart shows the consequences of a carbon tax, or equivalent, which only rewarded reduction of emissions from fossil fuels and industry, taking no account of land use. Under this scenario, there would be massive loss of forest and other natural ecosystems as the pressure to expand biofuel production would go unchecked, using up more and more land and with grave consequences for biodiversity.Carbon tax on fossil fuels and industry onlySource: Wise etal 2009
23 Address climate change and biodiversity loss in close co-ordination, and with equal priority, if the most severe impacts of each are to be avoided.One of the core messages of GBO3 is that climate change and biodiversity loss must be addressed in close co-ordination, and with equal priority, if the most severe impacts of each are to be avoided. There are several reasons why this should be the case: first, the further loss of ecosystems that store large quantities of carbon (for example tropical forests, salt marshes and seagrass beds) will increase further the buildup of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere; biodiversity measures can help to improve the capability of ecosystems and human communities to adapt to climate change, for example through biodiversity corridors helping species to migrate to more suitable conditions, and plant diversity increasing resilience to drought and other climatic changes; and the easing of other pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems, such as pollution, over-exploitation and habitat loss, making them less likely to reach tipping points driven primarily by climate change.
24 Key strategy elements: Greater efficiency in use of land, energy and fresh water to meet growing demandUse of market incentives and avoidance of perverse subsidiesStrategic planningRestoration of ecosystemsEquitable sharing of benefits from use of and access to genetic resources and associated traditional knowledgeSupport and facilitate local actionCommunication, education and awareness-raisingThe key elements of a strategy that could help to reverse the current trends on biodiversity loss include: much greater efficiency in the use of land, energy, fresh water and other resources to meet the demands of a growing and more prosperous population; the use of market incentives and the avoidance of perverse subsidies, to more truly reflect the huge economic value of biodiversity and ecosystems; strategic planning, including the use of strategic environmental assessment, to reconcile the needs of development with the conservation of critical biodiversity and ecosystems services; the restoration of ecosystems, recognising that it can be a cost-effective way of replacing lost services due to previous degradation – while accepting that the most cost-effective option is to avoid the degradation in the first place; the equitable sharing of benefits from us of and access to genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge, for example in the development of drugs, cosmetics and novel foods – potentially creating important new sources of financial support for conservation; the use of national legislation and programmes to support and facilitate local action to conserve and sustainably use biodiversity, recognising that locally-supported action is generally the most effective; and a major programme to improve communication, education and awareness raising with the aim of making everyone aware of the true value of biodiversity and the consequences of its continued loss to each of us.
25 The action taken over the next decade or two will determine whether the relatively stable environmental conditions on which human civilization has depended for the past 10,000 years will continue beyond this century.If we fail to use this opportunity, many ecosystems on the planet will move into new, unprecedented states in which the capacity to provide for the needs of present and future generations is highly uncertain.GBO3 concludes with the following words: The action taken over the next decade or two will determine whether the relatively stable environmental conditions on which human civilization has depended for the past 10,000 years will continue beyond this century.If we fail to use this opportunity, many ecosystems on the planet will move into new, unprecedented states in which the capacity to provide for the needs of present and future generations is highly uncertain.
26 For further information on Global Biodiversity Outlook and related prodcuts please see: