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1 1 Slide Chapter 9 Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM Projects are usually complex, unique, expensive to implement and may have several thousand activities.

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Presentation on theme: "1 1 Slide Chapter 9 Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM Projects are usually complex, unique, expensive to implement and may have several thousand activities."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 1 Slide Chapter 9 Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM Projects are usually complex, unique, expensive to implement and may have several thousand activities. Moreover, some activities depend on the completion of other activities before they can be started. Examples of projects include: R&D of new products and processes R&D of new products and processes Construction of buildings and highways Construction of buildings and highways Maintenance of large and complex equipment Maintenance of large and complex equipment Design and installation of new systems Design and installation of new systems PERT/CPM is used to plan the scheduling of individual activities that make up a project.

2 2 2 Slide PERT/CPM PERT P rogram E valuation and R eview T echnique P rogram E valuation and R eview T echnique Developed by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile project Developed by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile project Developed to handle uncertain activity times Developed to handle uncertain activity timesCPM C ritical P ath M ethod C ritical P ath M ethod Developed by DuPont & Remington Rand Developed by DuPont & Remington Rand Developed for industrial projects for which activity times are fixed Developed for industrial projects for which activity times are fixed Todays project management software packages have combined the best features of both approaches.

3 3 3 Slide PERT/CPM Project managers rely on PERT/CPM to help them answer questions such as: What is the total time to complete the project? What is the total time to complete the project? What are the scheduled start and finish dates for each specific activity? What are the scheduled start and finish dates for each specific activity? Which activities are critical and must be completed exactly as scheduled to keep the project on schedule? Which activities are critical and must be completed exactly as scheduled to keep the project on schedule? How long can non-critical activities be delayed before they cause an increase in the project completion time? How long can non-critical activities be delayed before they cause an increase in the project completion time?

4 4 4 Slide Project Network A project network can be constructed to model the precedence of the activities. The nodes of the network represent the activities. The arcs of the network reflect the precedence relationships of the activities. A critical path for the network is a path consisting of activities with zero slack. It is also the path that takes the longest time to complete.

5 5 5 Slide Example: Franks Fine Floats Franks Fine Floats is in the business of building Franks Fine Floats is in the business of building elaborate parade floats. Frank s crew has a new float to build and want to use PERT/CPM to help them manage the project. The table on the next slide shows the activities that The table on the next slide shows the activities that comprise the project as well as each activitys estimated completion time (in days) and immediate predecessors. Frank wants to know the total time to complete the Frank wants to know the total time to complete the project, which activities are critical, and the earliest and latest start and finish dates for each activity.

6 6 6 Slide Example: Franks Fine Floats Immediate Completion Immediate Completion Activity Description Predecessors Time (days) Activity Description Predecessors Time (days) A Initial Paperwork A Initial Paperwork B Build Body A 3 B Build Body A 3 C Build Frame A 2 C Build Frame A 2 D Finish Body B 3 D Finish Body B 3 E Finish Frame C 7 E Finish Frame C 7 F Final Paperwork B,C 3 F Final Paperwork B,C 3 G Mount Body to Frame D,E 6 G Mount Body to Frame D,E 6 H Install Skirt on Frame C 2 H Install Skirt on Frame C 2

7 7 7 Slide Example: Franks Fine Floats Project Network Start Finish ES EF LS LF B 3 D 3 ES EF LS LF A 3 C 2 G 6 F 3 H 2 E 7 S ES EF LS LF

8 8 8 Slide Earliest Start and Finish Times Step 1: Make a forward pass through the network as follows: For each activity i beginning at the Start node, compute: Earliest Start Time, ES i = the maximum of the earliest finish times of all activities immediately preceding activity i. (This is 0 for an activity with no predecessors.) Earliest Start Time, ES i = the maximum of the earliest finish times of all activities immediately preceding activity i. (This is 0 for an activity with no predecessors.) Earliest Finish Time, EF i = (Earliest Start Time) + (Time to complete activity i ). Earliest Finish Time, EF i = (Earliest Start Time) + (Time to complete activity i ). The project completion time is the maximum of the Earliest Finish Times all the activities that end at the Finish node.

9 9 9 Slide Example: Franks Fine Floats Earliest Start and Finish Times Start Finish B 3 D 3 A 3 C 2 G 6 F 3 H 2 E H 2 ES EF LS LF

10 10 Slide Latest Start and Finish Times Step 2: Make a backwards pass through the network as follows: Move sequentially backwards from the Finish node to the Start node. For each activity, i, compute: Latest Finish Time, LF i = the minimum of the latest start times of all the successor activity/ies of node i. (For node last node/s, this is the project completion time or the largest earliest finish times of the nodes that end at the Finish node.) Latest Finish Time, LF i = the minimum of the latest start times of all the successor activity/ies of node i. (For node last node/s, this is the project completion time or the largest earliest finish times of the nodes that end at the Finish node.) Latest Start Time, LS i = (Latest Finish Time) - (Time to complete activity i ). Latest Start Time, LS i = (Latest Finish Time) - (Time to complete activity i ).

11 11 Slide Example: Franks Fine Floats Latest Start and Finish Times Start Finish B 3 D 3 A 3 C 2 G 6 F 3 H 2 E H 2 ES EF LS LF

12 12 Slide Determining the Critical Path Step 3: Calculate the slack time for each activity by: Slack = (Latest Start) - (Earliest Start), or Slack = (Latest Start) - (Earliest Start), or = (Latest Finish) - (Earliest Finish). = (Latest Finish) - (Earliest Finish). Start Finish B 3 D 3 A 3 C 2 G 6 F 3 H 2 E

13 13 Slide Example: Franks Fine Floats Activity Schedule including the Slack Time Activity Schedule including the Slack Time Activity ES EF LS LF Slack Activity ES EF LS LF Slack A (critical) A (critical) B B C (critical) C (critical) D D E (critical) E (critical) F F G (critical) G (critical) H H

14 14 Slide Example: Franks Fine Floats A critical path is a path of activities, from the Start node to the Finish node, with 0 slack times. Start Finish B 3 D 3 A 3 C 2 G 6 F 3 H 2 E Critical Path: A – C – E – G Project Completion Time: 18 days

15 15 Slide PERT/CPM Critical Path Procedure Step 1. Develop a list of the activities of the project. Step 2. Determine the immediate predecessor(s) for each activity in the project. Step 3. Estimate the completion time for each activity. Step 4. Draw a project network depicting the activities and immediate predecessors listed in steps 1 and 2. Step 5. Determine the earliest start and the earliest finish time for each activity by making a forward pass through the network. Step 6. Use backward pass through the network to identify the latest start and latest finish time for each activity.

16 16 Slide PERT/CPM Critical Path Procedure Step 7. Use the difference between the latest start time and the earliest start time for each activity to determine the slack for each activity. Step 8. Find the activities with zero slack; these are the critical activities. Step 9. Use the information from steps 5 and 6 to develop the activity schedule for the project.

17 17 Slide Classroom Exercise: ABC Associates Consider the following project: Activity Immed. Predec. Activity time (hours) Activity Immed. Predec. Activity time (hours) A -- 6 A -- 6 B -- 4 B -- 4 C A 3 C A 3 D A 5 D A 5 E A 1 E A 1 F B,C 4 F B,C 4 G B,C 2 G B,C 2 H E,F 6 H E,F 6 I E,F 5 I E,F 5 J D,H 3 J D,H 3 K G,I 5 K G,I 5 i) Draw the project network diagram for ABC Associates. ii) Calculate the ES, EF, LS, LS and S for each activity. iii) Determine the critical path. iv) What is the project completion time?

18 18 Slide Classroom Exercise: ABC Associates Solution

19 19 Slide Calculation of activitys mean completion time and completion time variance. An activitys mean completion time is: t = ( a + 4 m + b )/6 t = ( a + 4 m + b )/6 a = the optimistic completion time estimate a = the optimistic completion time estimate b = the pessimistic completion time estimate b = the pessimistic completion time estimate m = the most likely completion time estimate m = the most likely completion time estimate An activitys completion time variance is: 2 = (( b - a )/6) 2 2 = (( b - a )/6) 2 Uncertain Activity Times for PERT

20 20 Slide Example: ABC Associates Consider the following project: Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) A A B B C A C A D A D A E A E A F B,C F B,C G B,C G B,C H E,F H E,F I E,F I E,F J D,H J D,H K G,I K G,I 3 5 7

21 21 Slide Example: ABC Associates Activity Expected Times and Variances Activity Expected Times and Variances t = ( a + 4 m + b )/6 2 = (( b - a )/6) 2 t = ( a + 4 m + b )/6 2 = (( b - a )/6) 2 Activity Expected Time Variance A 6 4/9 A 6 4/9 B 4 4/9 B 4 4/9 C 3 0 C 3 0 D 5 1/9 D 5 1/9 E 1 1/36 E 1 1/36 F 4 1/9 F 4 1/9 G 2 4/9 G 2 4/9 H 6 1/9 H 6 1/9 I 5 1 I 5 1 J 3 1/9 J 3 1/9 K 5 4/9 K 5 4/9

22 22 Slide Example: ABC Associates Critical Path (A-C-F-I-K); Project Completion time: 23 hours Important Note: The variance of the project completion time is the sum of the variances of the activities on the critical path.

23 23 Slide Example: ABC Associates Probability the project will be completed within 24 hrs: Step 1: Calculate the variance of the project completion time 2 = 2 A + 2 C + 2 F + 2 I + 2 K = 4/ / /9 = 2 = Step 2: Calculate the standard normal, z = (X – )/ where = expected project completion time. z = ( )/ (24-23)/1.414 =.71 Step 3: Calculate the probability from the standard normal distribution table (See Appendix A in the textbook): P( z <.71) = =

24 24 Slide i)What is the probability that the project will be completed with 25 hours? ii)What is the probability that the project will be completed between 20 and 25 hours? Example: ABC Associates


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