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RELIABILITY OF HYDRAULIC STRUCTURES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE Kamran Emami KuritKara Engineers Tehran, Iran.

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Presentation on theme: "RELIABILITY OF HYDRAULIC STRUCTURES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE Kamran Emami KuritKara Engineers Tehran, Iran."— Presentation transcript:

1 RELIABILITY OF HYDRAULIC STRUCTURES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE Kamran Emami KuritKara Engineers Tehran, Iran

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3 Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers A summary of UNICEF report on THE STATE OF THE WORLDS CHILDREN 2005 Number of children in the world: 2.2 billion Number of children living in poverty: 1 billion Number of children in developing countries who live without adequate shelter 640 million Number of children who have no access to safe water: one in five 400 million Number of children who have no access to health services 270 million Number of children who are out of school 121 million Total number of children younger than five living in France, Germany, Greece and Italy: Total number of children worldwide who died in 2003 before they were five 10.6 million 10.6 million Daily toll of children in the world who die before their fifth birthday: 29,158 The number of children who die each day because they lack access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation: 3,900 Many technical jumps are desperately needed …………

4 Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers World population from 1000 BC to 2300 BC

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6 Key findings of the Climate change report F million people across Africa could face water shortages by 2020; F More heavy rain events are very likely and more areas are likely to be hit by drought; F Crop yields could decrease by up to 30% in Central and South Asia; F Agriculture fed by rainfall could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020;

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11 Adaptation Strategies Predict the Climate Change trends Non-Structural Approaches Structural ductility Public participation and Demand Management Holistic, integrated and Creative Approaches

12 Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures ( Emami, 1997 ) Ensure a flexible and adaptive design in view of hydrosystems changes and the inherent uncertainties of water engineering.

13 Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures ( Emami, 1997 ) Establish the interdependence and synergy of structural and non-structural approaches in design.

14 Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures ( Emami, 1997 ) Adapt to the stochastic nature of river flow by integration of seasonal characteristics and river forecasting.

15 Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures ( Emami, 1997 ) Design hydraulic structures to adapt to extreme events far larger than design parameters and remain inherently safe (structural ductility)

16 Holistic Approach to adaptive design of hydraulic structures ( Emami, 1997 ) Enhance safety by 'designing' emergency and crisis management preceding the events and in real time for the structure and downstream population centers

17 FAST diagram of Holistic Design

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19 Evolution of Non-Structural Approaches

20 LIVING WITH FLOODING Flood risk cannot be eliminated Residual risk can be managed

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23 p rotection levels are generally far below the economic optimum s erious risk of loss of a large number of lives when an extreme event would occur c osts of only physical solutions are generally unaffordable CHARACTERISTICS RESULTS OF THE DEVELOPMENTS

24 Protection levels are generally far below the economic optimum

25 WHY CONSIDER RESIDUAL RISK ? New Orleans Floods September 2005

26 WHY CONSIDER RESIDUAL RISK ? New Orleans Floods September 2005

27 Challenges of flood Engineers Substantial Increase of Flood Risk Uncertainty in all aspects

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29 Adaptive management Principles (2004) Adaptability (Change Threat to Opportunity) Flexible Decision Making (uncertainties) Monitoring and vigilance Learning while doing Application of New knowledge and technologies

30 Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers Adaptive management Principles (2004) Avoiding costly irreversible mistakes Updating the Objectives

31 Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers Adaptive management Principles (2004) Resilience Harmony with Environment (step by step) Passive and Active AM Stakeholders Participation Enhanced Real time reactions

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33 كارايي سامانه هاي پيش بيني و هشدار 1970: نفر 1991: نفر 2007: 3500 نفر Bangladesh Cyclones

34 Climate Forecasting by El Nino and La nina Normal (Dec. 93) El Nino (Dec. 97) La Nina (Dec. 98)

35 Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers Risk Analysis

36 Flood management in Sistan, Iran

37 Successes of AM in Early Impoundment of Large dams in Iran

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39 مهندسان مشاوركريت كارآ VE of Ajichay Spillway

40 Vanyar Dam Spillway Value Engineering Workshop

41 VE Proposals and Results Enhanced Reservoir Operation Based on new rule curve, Seasonal forecasting and flood Warning Reduced Cost (spillway length form 110 to 40m) Enhanced Dam Safety Drastic Attenuation of floods in the reservoir

42 Routing of Floods in Aji Chay Reservoir

43 Aij Chay Flood Forecsting and Warning system

44 Tabriz Weather Radar

45 Conclusions -Based on experiences of application of AM in several larges projects it can be concluded that: -Adaptive flood risk Management is an effective, efficient and versatile tool. -AM emphasize of Non-structural approaches enhance adaptability, flexibility and sustainability.

46 Basic Requirements: -Efficient and reliable Water Managers and experts -Comprehensive and reliable Monitoring System -Preparedness and Plans for Emergencies -Regulations to ensure flexibility and adaptability -Resources and Training

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48 با توجه به عدم قطعيتها بايستي بجاي راهبرد اجتنابي از راهبرد تطبيقي و مقاوم سازي استفاده نمود. در اين راستا مقاوم سازي سدهاي خاكي در مقابل سيلاب و استفاده از سدها و فرازبندي بتني ميتواند بيشترين ايمني را با حداقل هزينه تامين نمايد.

49 Free-standing blocks, so called Fusegates, are installed side by side across the spillway sill Adaptability and Flexibility Description of a Fusegate

50 In such a way that they form a watertight barrier. Description of a Fusegate

51 Working Concept – Normal Operation Toe abutment Drain hole Ballast Inlet well Base chamber Common Floods are discharged between the Fusegates crest and the inlet levels Inlet wells are set at different elevations At this stage the chamber is empty

52 Working Concept – Exceptional Floods For exceptional floods only, the reservoir level increases until the water begins spilling over the inlet lips. Drain holes can not discharge all the flow. Uplift pressure builds up in the chamber.

53 Working Concept – Exceptional Floods Uplift pressure causes the Fusegate to overturn.

54 Environmental Impacts Progressive release of the flood water Outflow not exceeding the inflow Tip off probability = very low (usually 1 in 100 years and above) Maximum Water Level in the reservoir not raised General principles Tipping stages Flood Routing through a Fusegated Spillway PMF Blue curve: inflow / Red curve: outflow

55 Increase Storage Capacity 3. No increase in Maximum Water Level 2. Fusegates are used to increase the Full Supply Level 1. The sill is modified slightly New Full Supply Level

56 Main characteristics Purpose:Flood attenuation Discharge capacity:8500 m 3 /s Spillway length:93 m Fusegate height:6,50 m Number of units:6 Former storage capacity:173 Mm 3 New storage capacity:226 Mm 3 Storage increase:30% Terminus Dam, CA – USA

57 3. The storage capacity of the dam is recovered by installing Fusegates. 2. The spillway sill is lowered in order to pass the design flood. 1. The spillway is not able to pass the design flood below the MWL. Increase Discharge Capacity 4. The storage capacity could even be increased by installing higher Fusegates. Full Supply Level

58 Main characteristics Purpose:Recreation Storage capacity:6,6 Mm 3 Spillway length:125,0 m Fusegate height:6,5 m Number of units:10 Former discharge capacity:1245 m 3 /s New discharge capacity:5000 m 3 /s Discharge capacity increase:300% Shongweni Dam – South Africa 1995 Most outstanding Civil Engineering Achievement in Technical Excellence Award

59 Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers Dam Safety Strategy in Switzerland

60 Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers بولتن ICOLD در مورد كاهش ريسـك سدهـا بوسيله روشهـاي غيـر سازه اي

61 Kurit Kara Consulting Engineers Levees only!

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63 Evolution of Flood Management Strategies


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