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PERENCANAAN DAN PERAMALAN KEUANGAN Pertemuan 25 Matakuliah: > Tahun: >

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Presentation on theme: "PERENCANAAN DAN PERAMALAN KEUANGAN Pertemuan 25 Matakuliah: > Tahun: >"— Presentation transcript:

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2 PERENCANAAN DAN PERAMALAN KEUANGAN Pertemuan 25 Matakuliah: > Tahun: >

3 Bina Nusantara University 3 Learning Outcomes Pada akhir pertemuan ini diharapkan : Mahasiswa dapat menunjukkan hubungan pembiayaan internal dan eksternal ketika membuat ramalan dan perencanaan keuangan.

4 Outline Materi Forecasting sales Projecting the assets and internally generated funds Projecting outside funds needed Deciding how to raise funds Bina Nusantara University 4

5 Preliminary financial forecast: Balance sheets (Assets) E Cash and equivalents$ 20$ 25 Accounts receivable Inventories Total current assets$ 500$ 625 Net fixed assets Total assets$1,000$1,250 Bina Nusantara University 5

6 Preliminary financial forecast: Balance sheets (Liabilities and equity) E Accts payable & accrued liab.$ 100$ 125 Notes payable Total current liabilities Long-term debt Common stock500 Retained earnings Total liabilities & equity$1,000$1,250 Bina Nusantara University 6

7 Preliminary financial forecast: Income statements E Sales$2,000.0$2,500.0 Less: Variable costs1,200.01,500.0 Fixed costs EBIT$100.0$125.0 Interest16.0 EBT$84.0$109.0 Taxes (40%) Net income$50.4$65.40 Dividends (30% of NI)$15.12$19.62 Addition to retained earnings$35.28$45.78 Bina Nusantara University 7

8 Key financial ratios EInd AvgComment Basic earning power10.00% 20.00%Poor Profit margin2.52%2.62%4.00%Poor Return on equity7.20%8.77%15.60%Poor Days sales outstanding43.8 days 32.0 daysPoor Inventory turnover8.33x 11.00xPoor Fixed assets turnover4.00x 5.00xPoor Total assets turnover2.00x 2.50xPoor Debt/assets30.00%40.34%36.00%OK Times interest earned6.25x7.81x9.40xPoor Current ratio2.50x1.99x3.00xPoor Payout ratio30.00% OK Bina Nusantara University 8

9 Key assumptions in preliminary financial forecast for NWC Operating at full capacity in Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales. Payables and accruals grow proportionally with sales profit margin (2.52%) and payout (30%) will be maintained. Sales are expected to increase by $500 million. (%  S = 25%) Bina Nusantara University 9

10 Determining additional funds needed, using the AFN equation AFN= (A*/S 0 )ΔS – (L*/S 0 ) ΔS – M(S 1 )(RR) = ($1,000/$2,000)($500) – ($100/$2,000)($500) – ($2,500)(0.7) = $180.9 million. Bina Nusantara University 10

11 Management’s review of the financial forecast Consultation with some key managers has yielded the following revisions: –Firm expects customers to pay quicker next year, thus reducing DSO to 34 days without affecting sales. –A new facility will boost the firm’s net fixed assets to $700 million. –New inventory system to increase the firm’s inventory turnover to 10x, without affecting sales. These changes will lead to adjustments in the firm’s assets and will have no effect on the firm’s liabilities on equity section of the balance sheet or its income statement. Bina Nusantara University 11

12 Revised (final) financial forecast: Balance sheets (Assets) E Cash and equivalents$ 20$ 67 Accounts receivable Inventories Total current assets$ 500$ 550 Net fixed assets Total assets$1,000$1,250 Bina Nusantara University 12

13 Key financial ratios – final forecast FInd AvgComment Basic earning power10.00% 20.00%Poor Profit margin2.52%2.62%4.00%Poor Return on equity7.20%8.77%15.60%Poor Days sales outstanding43.8 days34.0 days32.0 daysOK Inventory turnover8.33x10.00x11.00xOK Fixed assets turnover4.00x3.57x5.00xPoor Total assets turnover2.00x 2.50xPoor Debt/assets30.00%40.34%36.00%OK Times interest earned6.25x7.81x9.40xPoor Current ratio2.50x1.75x3.00xPoor Payout ratio30.00% OK Bina Nusantara University 13

14 What was the net investment in operating capital? OC 2006 = NOWC + Net FA = $625 - $125 + $625 = $1,125 OC 2005 = $900 Net investment in OC = $1,125 - $900 = $225 Bina Nusantara University 14

15 How much free cash flow is expected to be generated in 2006? FCF= NOPAT– Net inv. in OC = EBIT (1 – T) – Net inv. in OC = $125 (0.6) – $225 = $75 – $225 = -$150. Bina Nusantara University 15

16 Suppose fixed assets had only been operating at 85% of capacity in 2005 The maximum amount of sales that can be supported by the 2005 level of assets is: –Capacity sales = Actual sales / % of capacity = $2,000 / 0.85 = $2, forecast sales exceed the capacity sales, so new fixed assets are required to support 2006 sales. Bina Nusantara University 16

17 How can excess capacity affect the forecasted ratios? Sales wouldn’t change but assets would be lower, so turnovers would improve. Less new debt, hence lower interest and higher profits –EPS, ROE, debt ratio, and TIE would improve. Bina Nusantara University 17

18 How would the following items affect the AFN? Higher dividend payout ratio? –Increase AFN: Less retained earnings. Higher profit margin? –Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained earnings. Higher capital intensity ratio? –Increase AFN: Need more assets for given sales. Pay suppliers in 60 days, rather than 30 days? –Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital (i.e., L*/S 0 increases). Bina Nusantara University 18

19 Closing Peramalan laporan keuangan adalah bagian penting dari proses perencanaan keuangan. Baik investor maupun perusahaan secara teratur menggunakan teknik peramalan untuk membantu penentuan nilai saham perusahaan. Bina Nusantara University 19


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