2Resources Plenary lectures at IMA 2002 NSERC reallocation report Breaking New GroundMMCDynamics of Complex Systems
3Terms and ConceptsGeology: Study of the Earth, processes, history, materials, life.Complexity: quantitative term, amount of information needed to describe a system, measured in the level of detail needed to describe the systemEmergence: parts interact in the context of the whole; system properties cannot be studied by physically taking components apart.
4Earth Lithosphere, biosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere, Different length and time scales.Feedback between component parts as energy and mass are exchanged, transferred and redistributedGeological context the feedback might occur on a global scale: sedimentation in basins affects ocean chemistry. On a smaller scale we see micron-scale zones in minerals record changes in lake chemistry.
5Geological context includes time Time, minutesTime, thousands of years……Time, years
7Human Perspective I Population 1999: six billion The last billion took 12 yearsRate of growth declining 2.2% in 1963 to ~1% today9 billion by 20501.1billion entering the age range of reproduction
8Human Perspective II Fire on demand 1.5 m to 500,000 years Mineral striker 40-50,000 yearsAu and Cu use 15,000 yearsCu + Sn to make bronzeBy the 16th century Agricola: “when ores are washed, the water which has been used poison’s the brooks and streams and either destroys the fish or drives them away”
9HumansHumans have become a major force in the Earth system: intervention in many of the exchanges.Global warmingAnother measure ~ 42.5 G tonnes of material moved by humans, ~ 42.5 G tonnes of material moved by streams, rivers mass wasting etc.Science now referring to our times as the Anthropozoic era or Anthropocene.G is an extensive variable
11Solid and Environmental Earth Sciences Earth System ScienceInterdisciplinary ScienceComplex Earth SystemEarth System ProcessesComplex Dynamical System
12A Complex or Emergent system has interdependent parts Dictionary definition of complex uses “interconnected” or “interwoven” which have quite different meanings“Interdependent” variables help define dynamic systems : coupled differential equationsStrong interactions do not imply interdependence.
13Complex system: calcite Normalized H+concentration at theface of a growing crystal
14Complex Earth System: Entropy and Information Entropy of a physical system is largest when it is in equilibriumMost complex system is one at equilibriumEquilibrium systems have no spatial structure and do not change with timeComplex systems have substantial internal structure and such structures change with time.Sensitivity to initial conditions “butterfly effect”
15Complex Earth System: Entropy and Information Manitoba:LithologyGeochemistryHydrologySoilGeophysicsPopulationAgricultureWeather……………Limnology and varves
16Complex Earth System: Entropy and Information Local feedback atmineral surface thatcaptures differentialdiffusion rates andthermal diffusionComposition changes with distanceand time
18Extraction and processing of minerals Example of how we interact with the Earth over timeFeedback between the lithosphere and our environmentFeedback to our economies and social structuresInterconnected or Interdependent?We seek equilibrium or sustainable conditions where the use of minerals is in balance with human needs.Complex System
19All complex systems record Feedback : Social Structure Public policyGovernmentNGOsEnvironmentResourcesEconomicsEnergy
20Mines Ministers Conference I Links between exploration and production cycles (6 – 30 years) and resources and reservesIn Canada some resources depleted by the the end of this decadeDemographics ~80% of geologists within 15 – 20 years of retirement300 of 2.5 Million US high school grads interested in mining
21Mines Ministers Conference II More mapsIntegrated databasesHQPDisconnect between University curricula and what is needed by IndustryHow can disconnected elements be involved in feedback?
23ResearchOut of ~320 academics surveyed for the last reallocation exercise ~6% indicated they would be doing research on mineral deposits.Large portion of NSERC funds now targetedDiscovery grantsNSERC-CRDStrategic grants
24Research Atom coordination on mineral surfaces As3+ v. As5+ mediated byseasonally controlled bacteriaPd coordinationby EXAFSAsbestos and ferrihydritefrom lung tissue
25ResearchAtomic Force MicroscopyLAM-ICP-MSSynchrotron Radiation
26NSERC reallocation“Recognition of the strong interactions that are now occurring between humankind and the Earth System currently constitutes both an urgent research challenge as well as an important research opportunity for Earth Sciences”“Recognition of the strong interdependence between humankind and the Earth System currently constitutes both an urgent research challenge as well as an important research opportunity for Earth Sciences”
27NSERC strategy for Future Development of the Discipline Three areas deemed to be intellectually, socially, economically and culturally significant: Proposals 1, 2 & 3Global Environmental Change and the Challenge of Greenhouse WarmingEarth Resources: Environmental Stewardship and Sustainable Development (Petroleum, Freshwater, Energy and Mineral Resources)Earth System Evolution and Dynamics (seismic arrays and analytical instrumentation)
28Results: Steering Committee* Budget 2002-03 Reallocations Contribution Proposals Funded Through ReallocationsTotal Reallocated 1234567Chemistry30,419,700(3,041,970)1,505,0001,000,0002,005,0004,510,000Condensed Matter Physics8,412,794(841,279)825,000365,000275,0001,465,000General Physics4,580,501(458,050)125,000280,000405,000Solid and Environmental Earth Sciences20,711,732(2,071,173)700,000600,0001,300,000Space, Astronomy and Relativity6,289,088(628,909)515,000Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics826,286(82,629)190,000Subatomic Physics13,845,550(1,384,555)175,000130,000920,000255,0001,845,000
30Geology curricula Requirements for Grass Roots Exploration: Acceptable business political and related risks: permitting, environmental, taxes, ownership, social issues, business strategy, price and marketingRelevance of curriculaCourses added to curricula such as environmental geology, geomorphic process, Earth system scienceMineral deposits represents only one of the areas we are called on to support
32Sustaining Geology: Interdependence Research:number of themes, practical, theoretical and socially relevantTeaching programs:Professional Registration requirementsFlexibility to include social relevanceenvironmental stewardshipmineral and energy resourcessustainable development
33Sustaining Earth“Sustaining Earth means keeping the planet’s life support systems functional without going in to a long term decline so that human habitation can be indefinite”Life support system includes soils, water atmosphere and biosphere.If any part fails………….Doesn’t speak to purpose or quality of life
34Sustaining Geology : Survival geology is the “service” science to the Earth and the Environmentquantitative data on the physical and chemical behaviour and characteristics of Earth materialsmany environmental and industrial process used to be considered relatively benign, advances in technology and theory mean we have gained a much better understanding of what is really going on.model the behaviour of minerals in natural and industrial systems.the theoretical and instrumental expertise needed to tackle many mineral extraction, mineral processing and environmental problems is resident in geology departments and geology surveys.a truly unique aspect to geological work is that it is the geologist (the one who maps the rocks) who samples the minerals in the appropriate spatial and temporal context.
35Geology : Emergence Interdependence “Geology” as we currently know it is rapidly becoming the professionally registerable practice of Earth ScienceEarth Science suggests an increasing awareness of the whole system, more degree options, more courses. Larger integrated faculty with more facilities.Geology and our resource requirements need to be framed in a social contextInterdependence