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Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

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Presentation on theme: "Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis."— Presentation transcript:

1 Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

2 Contents The final CAFE scenario –Environmental objectives –Results –Benefits –Macro-economic impacts Further steps towards the NEC revision –Bilateral consultations –Model improvements –Time table

3 Environmental objectives of the CAFE scenario

4 Environmental targets of the EU Thematic Strategy Environmental effect Targeted improvement compared to baseline Costs PM health impacts30.8 million life years gained 6.0 mill. /yr EutrophicationAdditional km 2 ecosystems protected 3.9 mill. /yr AcidificationAdditional km 2 ecosystems protected 3.8 mill /yr Ozone1300 premature deaths per year avoided 2.9 mill /yr Environmental effect Targeted improvement compared to baseline Costs PM health impacts30.8 million life years gained 5.9 bill. /yr EutrophicationAdditional km 2 ecosystems protected 3.9 bill. /yr AcidificationAdditional km 2 ecosystems protected 3.8 bill /yr Ozone1300 premature deaths per year avoided 2.9 bill /yr Joint optimizationAll targets7.1 bill /yr

5 Per-capita costs of the Thematic Strategy scenario

6 Gain in statistical life expectancy for the CAFE scenario (months)

7 Benefits of the CAFE scenarios Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al., 2005

8 Macro-economic impacts of the CAFE scenarios compared to the baseline 2020 Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al., 2005

9 Environmental improvements of the CAFE scenario Impact indicator in 2000 = 100%

10 Next steps Bilateral consultations –with 21 EU Member States, Norway: completed –+ Switzerland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine –All available and approved EGTEI results incorporated NEC baseline scenario: Spring 2006 Model improvements: Spring 2006 –Updated energy baseline projections (national and PRIMES) –City-Delta 3 for urban increments (improved population data, 2 more cities, improved validation) –Updated critical loads data –Multi-year meteorology –GAINS optimization: synergies with greenhouse gas mitigation Policy scenarios: Rest of 2006


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