1. Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development
Assessment of drought impact on rice production in Indonesia by satellite remote sensing and dissemination with web-GIS
Rizatus Shofiyati, Wataru Takeuchi, Soni Darmawan, and Parwati Sofan
Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development
Indonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources Research and Development
Presented at Workshop on Crop Monitoring and Food Security,
the 34th ACRS 2013, Bali-Indonesia, 22 October 2013 1 1

2. Background Presented by Lapan (2011) National Disaster Management
Berau of Indonesia (BNPB) :
Floods and droughts are common disaster in Indonesia
Flood occured 1,548
Drought occured 960
1,548
960
1,624,260
Agricultural area that suffered disasters :
Drought : 1,624,260
Flood : 1,019,123
Landslides : 323,658
323,658
1,019,123
Presented by Lapan (2011)
Source:

3. Drought Effects on Rice Crop Damage in Indonesia
Area damage
(ha)
Source : data processed from the Directorate General of Food Crops Protection

4. Decreasing of Crop Production
Drought Year
(El nino)
-0.33%
-5.85%
45.0
47.5
50.0
52.5
Paddy
Crop production (x 106 tons)
Year
Average
49.5 million tons
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Maize
Cassava

5. Special attention to monitor the condition of crops growth during the season is encouraged to reduce the damage.
An early warning of climate change impact would be very useful in the planning stage of agricultural development settings.
Sufficient data and information to anticipate various situations caused by climate change is critical, as it would affect agricultural development policy.

6. Activities of IAARD / MoA’s with Related Agencies
Frequency
Institutions
Activities / Output
Utility
2x / Year
BMKG
release prospect of season type
season type
IAHRI (under coordination IAARD)
have discussions and issue weather zone and prediction
weather zone and prediction
3x / Year
IAARD
issues recommendation / guidance of cropping calendar, supported by rainfall data of BMKG.
The information would be used by :
farmer to plan planting time, and
local government to determine regional planning especially in agricultural field.
Weather condition potentially influence agriculture areas that could influence national rice production and decisions on importing/ exporting rice.
BPS invites BMKG, MoA, LAPAN
to discuss the current and future climate condition, vegetation condition, and their impacts on the agriculture production (mainly Java island) for releasing of so-called “predictive rice production numbers”.

7. SAFE Prototype 2012/13 – 2013/14 Objective:
to asses the use of satellite data to monitor the drought condition of rice field in a near real time;
to validate the satellite based model on drought with ground observation data;
to develop a system based on Web-GIS integrating satellite based system with existing crop calendar;
to disseminate the drought information to decision makers, and the farmer through extension worker;

8. Expected Output
Nation wide drought condition data of rice field at sub district level;
Satellite based model of drought validated using ground truth data in Subang and Karawang District, West Java, Klaten, Central Java, Pasuruan and Ngawi, East Java, South Sulawesi, and South Kalimantan;
A Web based system to disseminate drought information to end users;

9. Collaboration with Agencies
Executing Agency
Activities
Excuting Agencies
ICALRD – IAARD of MoA
Developing the prediction/early warning models of the potential drought over the agriculture area in Java island.
Examining the uncertainties of drought indices and their ability to detect drought events in Indonesia and selecting the best drought indices to use in monitoring.
Integrating drought analysis by satellite data and cropping calendar for determining planting time
Conducting field checking
Conducting workshop & training
Supporting Agencies
JAXA
Univ. Of Tokyo
LAPAN
Satellite data provision (ALOS AVNIR-2 and PALSAR, ALOS-2)
Training, workshop, and seminar are matters to be considered during the activity
Technical supporter, Model development
Assist the automatic data processing needed for the continuous monitoring.
End Users
extension officers,
local government unit
farmers
Conducting field surveys for validation of model
Conducting workshop & seminar

10. Overview of the Activities
LAPAN
ICALRD - IAARD
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
Implementating model for operational use
Operational
Dissemination
Developing Web-GIS
Workshop
Applying Model
Product
Technology / Prototype
Model Validation
Developing Drought Model (Research Activities)
R & D

11. Integration of Cropping Patterns, Seasonal Rainfall and Satellite Image Analysis
POTENTIAL
CROPPING CALENDAR
(IAARD)
SEASONAL RAINFALL
PREDICTION
(BMKG)
DROUGHT
IMAGE ANALYSIS
(ICALRD)
WET: PS1, PS2, PS3
NDVI
FORECAST OF
MONTHLY RAINFALL
(mm/month)
NORMAL: PS1, PS2, PS3
VCI
PROSPECT OF
BEGINNING OF
SEASON
DRY: PS1, PS2, PS3
Data Used:
MODIS,
MTSAT
AMSER-E
ALOS AVNIR-2 & PALSAR
(acq before May 2011)
KBDI
VHI
Data Used:
Rainfall Data
PROSPECT OF
SEASON TYPE
(WET, NORMAL, DRY)

12. Drought Information System
Rainfall Data
Satellite
Data
Drought
Information
Cropping Calendar by IAARD
Season Prediction by BMG
updating integrated cropping calendar
Drought
Information System
Local
Government
RECOMMENDATIONS :
Information of drought vulnerability
Planting time
Extension
Officer
Farmer

13. Method & Data Used
Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) associates with moisture condition of vegetation:
Thermal Condition Index (TCI) associates with thermal condition of vegetation:
Vegetation Health Index (VHI) represents overall vegetation health:
Kogan, 1990
Kogan, 1990
Kogan, 1990

14. Classes of Agricultural drought-based VHI

15. Vulnerability Level of Drought Year 2012 (Source: IAARD, 2012)

16. Model Development & Application In 2012

17. VCI & LSWC to Identify Crop Pattern and Intensity
Source: Takeuchi et al, 2012

18. KBDI & LSWC to Identify Drought in Indramayu
Source: Takeuchi et al., 2012

19. Crop Pattern and Intensity in Java Island by MODIS

20. Existing Crop Calendar
The growing seasons detailed below are existing crop calendar in Karawang and Subang. They are based on the cultivar planted in the area which has 90 to 110 days growing period (i.e. Ciherang, IR42, Cidenok, Mekongga, etc.) #
Sowing Month
Harvest Month
Notes 1
October
February
Northern coast of West Java (Karawang, Subang, Indramayu) 2
March
June 3
July
October*)
*) Secondary crops (maize, soybean, longbean), the harvest time is around August

21. Guidance of Crop Calender 2012-2013 (IAARD 2012)

24. Rainfall, KBDI, NDVI, LSWC (2009 - 2012) – West Java

25. VCI, TCI, & VHI of MODIS for Drought of Java

26. Field Visit for Model Validation

27. Ground survey for drought
based on ground survey
KBDI value 500 – 600  early indication of drought for paddy filed
Drought systems have high accuracy
In the some area that have good irrigation and have water resource, although indicated drought but paddy field still growth.

28. 3. Ground survey for drought
Kerawang & Bandung West Java

29. 3. Ground survey for drought
Yogyakarta, Central Java

30. 3. Ground survey for drought
Makasar, South Sulawesi

31. Harvested area since 1993 - 2012 Ten provinces of central areas of
paddy production in Indonesia:
West Java
Central Java
East Java
South Sulawesi
Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam
North Sumatra
West Sumatra
South Sumatra
Lampung
Bali & West Nusa Tenggara
Source: BPS, 2013

32. Indonesia Rice Productivity (1993 – 2012)
Source: BPS, 2013

33. Web-GIS Development (on going)

34. Transfer Data Connection Fasility
Cloud Computing
IAARD
VPN
UNIV. OF TOKYO
ICALRD
VPN
LAPAN

35. Website Crop Monitoring

36. Web-GIS for Search Available Information

38. Feed Back From User Some Workshops held in 2012: Pariticpants :
LAPAN, BPPT, BMKG, BPS, IPB, BB Padi, BIG, etc
Some area need to be verified, It does nor meet with area condition, such as East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan
More Interactive and integrated :
Searching menu
Can show the result analysis by using coordinate / cursor
In Indonesian version → the user is local people.

39. End user meeting in 2013 From BB. Padi :
a. is it possible for variety of paddy field mapping using remote sensing ? And how ?
b. how to predict the drought ?
c. How about accuration and validation the drought system ?
From coordinator of farmer :
a. They expect given computer facilities and internet access
b. How to access the systems ? And they hope implemented training/workshop for them

40. On Going & Next Activities in 2013/14
Continue processing and analysing all indices (SPI, VCI, TCI, VHI), LSWC, and KBDI Using MODIS, MTSAT, and AMSER-E for 2013.
Developing a system based on Web-GIS integrating satellite based system.
Correlated KBDI with Crop Calendar
Disseminating the drought information through workshop for end user (decision makers, and the farmer through extension worker).
Implementing the model for operational use.

41. Framework of operational use after this prototyping
Satellite data processing :
digital analysis of satellite imagery,
identifying drought affected area
Analysing drought impact to paddy production by identifying planted harvested area
Data Provider:
LAPAN
JAXA
Satellite data preparation :
Inventory and selection of basic analytical methods
ICALRD – IAARD – MoA
LAPAN
Univ. of Tokyo
Preparation of information (spatial & tabular):
Agriculture affected area by drought, drought impact to paddy planted area, harvested area, and paddy production.
Data & Information Updating
IAARD, LAPAN, BPS, PUSDATIN of MoA
Web-GIS based Information :
Area affected of drought
Recommendation : planting time, crop, etc
feedback
User:
Farmer via extension officer, Agric. Local Office for Food Crop

42. Closing Remarks Model development:
NDVI, VHI, LSWC, KBDI (value 500 – 600) can represent precipitation anomaly and well capture a drought onset day.
VCI of MODIS, LSWC of AMSER-E, KBDI of MTSAT can be used to identify crop pattern → the Indices can be used to estimate yield.
Validation have been done in West Java (Indramayu District), DI Yogyakarta, South Kalimantan, and South Sulawesi shown same condition with result derived from satellite data.
Web based system to disseminate drought information is still developing:
More Interactive and integrated
In Indonesian version → the user is local people
Conducting Training/Workshop
Provide Computer and Internet facility

43. THANK YOU
ICALRD Jalan Tentara Pelajar No. 12, Cimanggu, Bogor, INDONESIA Tel Fax