Presentation on theme: "Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development"— Presentation transcript:
1Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development Assessment of drought impact on rice production in Indonesia by satellite remote sensing and dissemination with web-GISRizatus Shofiyati, Wataru Takeuchi, Soni Darmawan, and Parwati SofanIndonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and DevelopmentIndonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources Research and DevelopmentPresented at Workshop on Crop Monitoring and Food Security,the 34th ACRS 2013, Bali-Indonesia, 22 October 201311
2Background Presented by Lapan (2011) National Disaster Management Berau of Indonesia (BNPB) :Floods and droughts are common disaster in IndonesiaFlood occured 1,548Drought occured 9601,5489601,624,260Agricultural area that suffered disasters :Drought : 1,624,260Flood : 1,019,123Landslides : 323,658323,6581,019,123Presented by Lapan (2011)Source:
3Drought Effects on Rice Crop Damage in Indonesia Area damage(ha)Source : data processed from the Directorate General of Food Crops Protection
4Decreasing of Crop Production Drought Year(El nino)-0.33%-5.85%45.047.550.052.5PaddyCrop production (x 106 tons)YearAverage49.5 million tons0.02.55.07.510.012.515.017.520.019931994199519961997199819992000MaizeCassava
5Special attention to monitor the condition of crops growth during the season is encouraged to reduce the damage.An early warning of climate change impact would be very useful in the planning stage of agricultural development settings.Sufficient data and information to anticipate various situations caused by climate change is critical, as it would affect agricultural development policy.
6Activities of IAARD / MoA’s with Related Agencies FrequencyInstitutionsActivities / OutputUtility2x / YearBMKGrelease prospect of season typeseason typeIAHRI (under coordination IAARD)have discussions and issue weather zone and predictionweather zone and prediction3x / YearIAARDissues recommendation / guidance of cropping calendar, supported by rainfall data of BMKG.The information would be used by :farmer to plan planting time, andlocal government to determine regional planning especially in agricultural field.Weather condition potentially influence agriculture areas that could influence national rice production and decisions on importing/ exporting rice.BPS invites BMKG, MoA, LAPANto discuss the current and future climate condition, vegetation condition, and their impacts on the agriculture production (mainly Java island) for releasing of so-called “predictive rice production numbers”.
7SAFE Prototype 2012/13 – 2013/14 Objective: to asses the use of satellite data to monitor the drought condition of rice field in a near real time;to validate the satellite based model on drought with ground observation data;to develop a system based on Web-GIS integrating satellite based system with existing crop calendar;to disseminate the drought information to decision makers, and the farmer through extension worker;
8Expected OutputNation wide drought condition data of rice field at sub district level;Satellite based model of drought validated using ground truth data in Subang and Karawang District, West Java, Klaten, Central Java, Pasuruan and Ngawi, East Java, South Sulawesi, and South Kalimantan;A Web based system to disseminate drought information to end users;
9Collaboration with Agencies Executing AgencyActivitiesExcuting AgenciesICALRD – IAARD of MoADeveloping the prediction/early warning models of the potential drought over the agriculture area in Java island.Examining the uncertainties of drought indices and their ability to detect drought events in Indonesia and selecting the best drought indices to use in monitoring.Integrating drought analysis by satellite data and cropping calendar for determining planting timeConducting field checkingConducting workshop & trainingSupporting AgenciesJAXAUniv. Of TokyoLAPANSatellite data provision (ALOS AVNIR-2 and PALSAR, ALOS-2)Training, workshop, and seminar are matters to be considered during the activityTechnical supporter, Model developmentAssist the automatic data processing needed for the continuous monitoring.End Usersextension officers,local government unitfarmersConducting field surveys for validation of modelConducting workshop & seminar
10Overview of the Activities LAPANICALRD - IAARD2010/112011/122012/132013/14Implementating model for operational useOperationalDisseminationDeveloping Web-GISWorkshopApplying ModelProductTechnology / PrototypeModel ValidationDeveloping Drought Model (Research Activities)R & D
11Integration of Cropping Patterns, Seasonal Rainfall and Satellite Image Analysis POTENTIALCROPPING CALENDAR(IAARD)SEASONAL RAINFALLPREDICTION(BMKG)DROUGHTIMAGE ANALYSIS(ICALRD)WET: PS1, PS2, PS3NDVIFORECAST OFMONTHLY RAINFALL(mm/month)NORMAL: PS1, PS2, PS3VCIPROSPECT OFBEGINNING OFSEASONDRY: PS1, PS2, PS3Data Used:MODIS,MTSATAMSER-EALOS AVNIR-2 & PALSAR(acq before May 2011)KBDIVHIData Used:Rainfall DataPROSPECT OFSEASON TYPE(WET, NORMAL, DRY)
12Drought Information System Rainfall DataSatelliteDataDroughtInformationCropping Calendar by IAARDSeason Prediction by BMGupdating integrated cropping calendarDroughtInformation SystemLocalGovernmentRECOMMENDATIONS :Information of drought vulnerabilityPlanting timeExtensionOfficerFarmer
13Method & Data UsedVegetation Condition Index (VCI) associates with moisture condition of vegetation:Thermal Condition Index (TCI) associates with thermal condition of vegetation:Vegetation Health Index (VHI) represents overall vegetation health:Kogan, 1990Kogan, 1990Kogan, 1990
17VCI & LSWC to Identify Crop Pattern and Intensity Source: Takeuchi et al, 2012
18KBDI & LSWC to Identify Drought in Indramayu Source: Takeuchi et al., 2012
19Crop Pattern and Intensity in Java Island by MODIS
20Existing Crop Calendar The growing seasons detailed below are existing crop calendar in Karawang and Subang. They are based on the cultivar planted in the area which has 90 to 110 days growing period (i.e. Ciherang, IR42, Cidenok, Mekongga, etc.)#Sowing MonthHarvest MonthNotes1OctoberFebruaryNorthern coast of West Java (Karawang, Subang, Indramayu)2MarchJune3JulyOctober*)*) Secondary crops (maize, soybean, longbean), the harvest time is around August
21Guidance of Crop Calender 2012-2013 (IAARD 2012)
27Ground survey for drought based on ground surveyKBDI value 500 – 600 early indication of drought for paddy filedDrought systems have high accuracyIn the some area that have good irrigation and have water resource, although indicated drought but paddy field still growth.
283. Ground survey for drought Kerawang & Bandung West Java
293. Ground survey for drought Yogyakarta, Central Java
303. Ground survey for drought Makasar, South Sulawesi
31Harvested area since 1993 - 2012 Ten provinces of central areas of paddy production in Indonesia:West JavaCentral JavaEast JavaSouth SulawesiNanggroe Aceh DarussalamNorth SumatraWest SumatraSouth SumatraLampungBali & West Nusa TenggaraSource: BPS, 2013
38Feed Back From User Some Workshops held in 2012: Pariticpants : LAPAN, BPPT, BMKG, BPS, IPB, BB Padi, BIG, etcSome area need to be verified, It does nor meet with area condition, such as East Nusa Tenggara, South KalimantanMore Interactive and integrated :Searching menuCan show the result analysis by using coordinate / cursorIn Indonesian version → the user is local people.
39End user meeting in 2013 From BB. Padi : a. is it possible for variety of paddy field mapping using remote sensing ? And how ?b. how to predict the drought ?c. How about accuration and validation the drought system ?From coordinator of farmer :a. They expect given computer facilities and internet accessb. How to access the systems ? And they hope implemented training/workshop for them
40On Going & Next Activities in 2013/14 Continue processing and analysing all indices (SPI, VCI, TCI, VHI), LSWC, and KBDI Using MODIS, MTSAT, and AMSER-E for 2013.Developing a system based on Web-GIS integrating satellite based system.Correlated KBDI with Crop CalendarDisseminating the drought information through workshop for end user (decision makers, and the farmer through extension worker).Implementing the model for operational use.
41Framework of operational use after this prototyping Satellite data processing :digital analysis of satellite imagery,identifying drought affected areaAnalysing drought impact to paddy production by identifying planted harvested areaData Provider:LAPANJAXASatellite data preparation :Inventory and selection of basic analytical methodsICALRD – IAARD – MoALAPANUniv. of TokyoPreparation of information (spatial & tabular):Agriculture affected area by drought, drought impact to paddy planted area, harvested area, and paddy production.Data & Information UpdatingIAARD, LAPAN, BPS, PUSDATIN of MoAWeb-GIS based Information :Area affected of droughtRecommendation : planting time, crop, etcfeedbackUser:Farmer via extension officer, Agric. Local Office for Food Crop
42Closing Remarks Model development: NDVI, VHI, LSWC, KBDI (value 500 – 600) can represent precipitation anomaly and well capture a drought onset day.VCI of MODIS, LSWC of AMSER-E, KBDI of MTSAT can be used to identify crop pattern → the Indices can be used to estimate yield.Validation have been done in West Java (Indramayu District), DI Yogyakarta, South Kalimantan, and South Sulawesi shown same condition with result derived from satellite data.Web based system to disseminate drought information is still developing:More Interactive and integratedIn Indonesian version → the user is local peopleConducting Training/WorkshopProvide Computer and Internet facility
43THANK YOUICALRD Jalan Tentara Pelajar No. 12, Cimanggu, Bogor, INDONESIA Tel Fax