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U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013 Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Transportation,

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Presentation on theme: "U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013 Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Transportation,"— Presentation transcript:

1 U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013 Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Transportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants Association January 24, 2013

2 Source: National Weather Service U.S. Drought Monitor As of Tuesday, January 15

3 Source: United States Geological Survey U.S. Streamflow Monday, January 21, 2013

4 Source: United States Geological Survey Upper-Mississippi Streamflow Monday, January 21, 2013

5 Source: United States Geological Survey Missouri Streamflow Monday, January 21, 2013

6 Source: National Weather Service A tale of two grain belts – one very dry, one wet Precipitation Percent of Normal, 180-Day Period Ending Monday

7 U.S. Winter Wheat Production Average

8 Precipitation (Percent of Normal) Weighted By U.S. Crop Production 180-Day Period Ending Monday 68% of HRW wheat in drought, compared to only 10% of SRW wheat

9 Neutral Conditions Exist (Neither El Niño nor La Niña)

10 Neutral Conditions To Continue Through Summer Data source: Climate Prediction Center

11 U.S. Temperature Probability March-April-May

12 U.S. Precipitation Probability March-April-May

13 10 Driest May-December Periods In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Data source: National Climatic Data Center

14 March-April Precipitation After The 10 Driest May-December Periods In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Data source: National Climatic Data Center

15 U.S. Winter Wheat Yield Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

16 U.S. Winter Wheat Yield After The 10 Driest May-December Periods In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

17 U.S. Corn Production Average

18 U.S. Soybean Production Average

19 Ideal Weather For Highest U.S. Corn Yield

20 Ideal Weather For Highest U.S. Soybean Yield

21 U.S. Corn Yield Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

22 U.S. Corn Yield (Departure From Trend) Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

23 U.S. Corn Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation* * Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

24 U.S. Soybean Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation* * Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

25 Summary A large-scale and intense drought is in progress May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013 Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields

26 U.S. Earthquakes Do you live in the Midwest or Mississippi Delta? Have you ever felt an earthquake?

27 San Francisco Earthquake Magnitude 7.9 on April 18, 1906

28 U.S. Earthquake Risk The risk of a major earthquake in the central U.S. “is as high as for places in California” – United States Geological Survey, 2007 Source: United States Geological Survey

29 Two Seismic Zones In The Corn Belt and Delta

30 Halloween Earthquake Near Cairo, Illinois Magnitude 6.8 on October 31, 1895 Source: United States Geological Survey

31 New Madrid Earthquake Sequence December 1811 – February earthquakes of Magnitude 7.8 – earthquakes of at least Magnitude 7.0 (not aftershocks) “…weeks to months…” of disruption would affect agriculture and its transportation infrastructure if a sequence recurred today – USGS 2009

32 South America Grains and Oilseeds

33 Argentina Precipitation Last 90 Days (Ending Monday )

34 Argentina Precipitation Last 30 Days (Ending Monday )

35 Argentina’s Recent Weather Pattern

36 Summary Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

37 Summary A large-scale and intense drought is in progress May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013 Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

38 Thank You! Questions? Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Website: Phone: (312) Toll Free Phone: (866) North Michigan Avenue Suite 1400 Chicago, IL 60611


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