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DUSHYANT MAHADIK MONEY, BANKING, CORPORATE FINANCE AND GOVERNANCE AREA CENTRE FOR ECONOMICS AND FINANCE ASCI, TUESDAY, 28 TH FEBRUARY 2012 Financial Aspects of Regulation

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BUSINESS DECISION MAKING NET PRESENT VALUE COST OF CAPITAL Agenda

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FOUNDATIONS OF MANAGEMENT NON-FINANCIAL CRITERIA FINANCIAL CRITERIA Business Decision Making

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Foundations of Management Division of labour Centralization and Decentralization Business Policy Values and Culture

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Criteria for Making Business Decisions Profitability Strategic Fit Long term sustainability Best use of available resources Employee First, Customer Second Triple Bottom Line Administrative Reasons Logistic Convenience

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Financial Criteria Break Even Analysis Cost-Benefit Analysis Net Present Value Economic Value Added Adjusted Present Value Payback period Rates of return Return on Investments Accounting Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return

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Option 1 : 3 x 10 MW Option 2 : 1 x 60 MW Site available to your company on lease is perfectly suited Entire land mass will get used in the plant and accessories Your company does not have any cash reserve Site available to your company on lease is perfectly suited Entire land mass will get used in the plant and accessories Your company does not have any cash reserve Exercise: Limited Power Project

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Option 1 : 3 x 10 MW Option 2 : 1 x 60 MW Each 10 MW plant costs $3 MN Accessories and other costs are $1 MN Over next 10 years, the plants are expected to generate revenue of $35 MN and incur cost worth $15 MN The plant costs $13 MN Accessories and other costs are $2 MN Over next 10 years, the plants are expected to generate revenue of $48 MN and incur cost worth $20 MN Exercise: Limited Power Project

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Net Present Value

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Discounting the future cash flows Money today is worth more than having money tomorrow C i Present Value of C i = ----------------- (1 + r ) i where, r is the discount rate C i is the net cash flow coming in during the i th year More distant cash flows are more risky, hence they are discounted more

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Option 1 : 3 x 10 MW Option 2 : 1 x 60 MW Year01..10 Plant-9.0 Accessories-1.0 Revenue3.5..3.5 Operating Cost -1.5..-1.5 Discounted Value @ 4% -10.01.9..1.4 Exercise: Limited Power Project all figures in million $ Year01..10 Plant-13.0 Accessories-2.0 Revenue4.8..4.8 Operating Cost -2.0..-2.0 Discounted Value @ 4% -15.02.7..1.9 NPV = $6.22 M > 0NPV = $7.71 M > 0

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What is measured ? Future cash flows – ignore sunk cost Operating cash flows Incremental cash flows over status quo Non-cash expenses like depreciation, overheads, etc. Changes in capital (working capital) Include opportunity cost Expectations about inflation Effects of tax

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Net Present Value Appreciates time value of money Only cash profits are important Additive method Provides a direct link between management decision and shareholder value Mutually exclusive projects are handled better Able to absorb term structure of interest rates

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Exercise : Illustrating Timing Differences ProjectYear 1Year 2Year 3PV @ 10% A100 100.0248.69 B15010039.5248.69 C50100160.5248.69 Stakeholders may view the projects differently Differences in time horizon Different perception of risk Different tolerance for risk

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INTRODUCTION WACC CAPM Cost of Capital

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Returns to an operator attract investors Opportunity Cost of Capital Investors may not be attracted for many reasons Too much debt or too little debt Management efficiency of the operator Country/region of the operator Other risks taken by the operator Lack of transparency or clarity about future course of action Discount rate for NPV and Hurdle rate for IRR

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Weighted Average Cost of Capital Returns for the operator should be greater than the operators post-tax WACC WACC = where, D – value of debt E – value of equity shares t – corporate tax rate (marginal) r D – average rate of interest on debt r E – returns required by the shareholders

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Cost of Debt for Tata Power Limited Refer to hand out given (excerpts of annual report 2010-11) Schedule C: Secured Loans (Rs 47539 MN) Schedule D: Unsecured Loans (Rs 22354 MN) Schedule 3: Interest Charges (Rs 4489.5 MN) Cost of debt (weighted average) = 6.42%

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Cost of Equity Dividend discount models Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Also known as market capitalization rate or required rate of return by equity investors

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Dividend Discount Models Walter Model H Model Multi-stage Growth Model Gordon Growth Model DIV1 Market Capitalization Rate = -------- + Growth Rate P0 where, DIV1 = dividend to be paid in next year P0 = Current share price 20

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Growth Rate for Dividend Discount Models Security Analysts Industry Experts Fundamentals of the company Revenue from year n+1 will be more than revenues from year n To the extent to which operating assets are higher Growth Rate of Profits = Plough Back Ratio x Return on Equity What is the reinvestment policy of the company ? Plough back = 50% and Return on equity = 12% Growth = 50% x 12% = 6% 21

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Capital Asset Pricing Model Equity Market Risk Premium Extra Returns (risk premium) from an investment are dependant on the underlying risks Security Market Line r - r f = (r m - r f ) (beta) is the measure of sensitivity of the investment to market movements

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Capital Asset Pricing Model Assumptions Markets are efficient There is no information asymmetry Transaction costs are negligible, i.e. Borrowing and lending rates are same There are no taxes Risk/Return Contribution to a Portfolio Because unique risk is already diversified in a portfolio

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WACC for Tata Power Limited WACC = 11% Equity = 16%, 56% of FV Dividend Discount, 10.0% 12.5 / 1330 + 9% CAPM 18.9% with = 0.8 8% + 0.8 * (21%-8%) Debt = 4.5%, 44% of FV 6.42% x (1-t)

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Roadblocks to finding WACC Unlisted company or part of a conglomerate Nominal vs Real WACC Marginal WACC and Average WACC Measurement of risk Inefficient capital structure

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Back-up Slides

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Economic Value Added Introduced and popularized by Stern Stewart & Company EVA in year n = cash inflow (or outflow) minus the cost of capital (cost of financing) Also, any additional investment done in the year n is to be subtracted Total EVA by taking the project is the sum of discounted EVA for each year

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Adjusted Present Value NPV is calculated by treating the project as an unlevered firm That is the value of the project on its own When the project is financed with debt, it helps the firm save taxes because interest is a tax-deductible expense The present value of all future tax savings are the financing side effects of the project Adjusted present value = NPV as unlevered firm + PV of Tax Shields

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Dividend Discount Model Perpetuity formula – Value of perpetuity = periodic payment / discount rate If perpetuity is growing – Value of perpetuity = first periodic payment / (discount rate – growth rate) So, dividend to be paid in next year Share Price = ---------------------------------------- (required rate) – (growth rate)

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Calculation of Beta Covariance with the market Variance of the market

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References Data about Tata Power Limited taken from http://www.tatapower.com/investor-relations/pdf/92Annual- report-2010-11.pdf Beta of major Indian companies http://www.bseindia.com/about/abindices/betavalues.asp Further reading on the topic is given in the references section of Chapter III: Management and Analysis of Financial and Other Data http://www.regulationbodyofknowledge.org/documents/bok/ chapter3.pdf

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