1. Model Simulations Of Ozone Formation Over Israel, The West Bank, And Jordan E. Weinroth, M. Luria, A. Ben-Nun, C. Emery, J. Kaplan, M. Peleg and Y. Mahrer Seagram Center for Soil and Water Sciences Faculty of Agriculture The Hebrew University Rehovot 76100 Israel R. Bornstein, Dept. of Meteorology, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA S. Kasakseh, Applied Research Institute Jerusalem Bethlehem, West bank 27 th NATO/CCMS/ITM Banff Center, Banff, Alberta, Canada 24-29 Oct 2004 Model Simulations Of Ozone Formation Over Israel, The West Bank, And Jordan E. Weinroth, M. Luria, A. Ben-Nun, C. Emery, J. Kaplan, M. Peleg and Y. Mahrer Seagram Center for Soil and Water Sciences Faculty of Agriculture The Hebrew University Rehovot 76100 Israel R. Bornstein, Dept. of Meteorology, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA S. Kasakseh, Applied Research Institute Jerusalem Bethlehem, West bank 27 th NATO/CCMS/ITM Banff Center, Banff, Alberta, Canada 24-29 Oct 2004

2. FUNDING: USAID/MERC PROGRAM

3. OUTLINE PROJECT OBJECTIVES METEOROLOGICAL PATTERNS RAMS AND MM5 RESULTS EMISSION PATTERNS CAMx RESULTS CONCLUSIONS

4. Specific objectives: (1) Install environmental monitoring sites (2) Prepare environmental databases (3) Prepare regional climatology (4) Conduct field campaigns during periods conducive to poor regional AQ (5) Apply RAMS & MM5 and CAMx to increase understanding of current & future air quality problems

5. Results show spatial & temporal variations in met factors & air quality concentrations temporal & spatial emission patterns that reflect land use patterns RAMS winds reproduce observed transport patterns CAMx ozone fields reproduce transboundary transport patterns observed by aircraft

6. Topo map of study area

7. Land-use map

11. Emission Inventory: 1997- 8 Large Stationary (point) sources (58% fuel consumption) 400 Medium Stationary (point) sources (6.6%) Small Stationary (area) sources (12.2%) Solvents (area) sources Biogenic Stationary (area) sources (isoprene and monoterpene) Mobile (area) sources, both ground based and aerial

14. Weather Conditions: Preview Pre-episode: subtropical H slow speeds, low mixing depth Episode: shallow Persian thermal trough penetrates H withdraws increased surface HPG augmented westerly sea breeze front inland elevated ozone concentration

18. EPA uMM5 at SJSU As close as possible to RAMS set-up 3 nested grids on 96 CPU cluster Initialized & updated every 6 hr with ECMWF fields Topography from GTOPO30 project, horizontal grid spacing of 30 sec (approx 1 km 2 ) Land-use & DTM (25 x 25 m 2 ) for 2nd & 3rd grids MM5 Met fields will also be used as input to CAMx Meso wind convention: flag is 5 m/s & full barb is 1 m/s

29. CAMx: version 3.10 Map projection: Polar Stereographic Grid area: 270 x 370 km 2. Cells 5 X 5 km 2 Transport algorithm: area preserving flux-form advection solver (Bott 1989). CBM-IV: Carbon Bond Mechanism + CMC fast solver. Plume-in-grid: sub model used for main stationary sources. Maturity parameters 2500 m or 12hr.

30. CAMx model Jerusalem Flight Path 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 מקרא O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 Camx Results vs Airborne Measurements

31. CAMx model Jerusalem 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 מקרא O 3 ppb 7.8.97 14:00 Jerusalem Flight Path Camx Results vs Airborne Measurements

32. Camx Results vs Measurements

33. 8 Emission Input Scenarios 1.All emission sources 2.All Industry sources 3.Main (large) Industry sources 4.Medium and small (low) industry 5.Without Industry = Vehicles, Solvents & Vegetation 6.Vehicles only 7.Without vehicles = All Industry, Solvents & Vegetation 8.Without emissions (initial and boundary conditions)

34. All emission sources 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00

35. 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 All industry sources

36. 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 Large industry sources

37. 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 Low industry sources

38. 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 Without emission sources

39. 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 Without industry sources

40. 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 Vehicle sources

41. 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 Without vehicle sources

42. 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 All industry sources

43. 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 Legend O 3 ppb 1.8.97 15:00 Without emission sources

44. Ozone Peaks for all Scenarios: 1 Aug 97 Source O 3 Peak (ppb) Comparison to All Sources Peak in % (discounting initial 45 ppb) All sources 116100% Without emissions 5615% Industry low 5818% All industry 9875% Industry large 9773% Without Industry 8251% Without vehicles 10381% Vehicles 8049%

45. Future Plans: GIS/RS from TAU, ARIJ, an EPRI to determine gridded fields of sfc characteristics (e.g., z 0, ε, α, LU/LC) for uMM5 and CAMx Urbanized EPA MM5 meso-model (uMM5xx) will simulate additional flow cases on the 106 CPU SJSU cluster CAMx will be run with current precursor emissions using output from the RAMS and uMM5xx simulations ARIJ, EPRI, & HUJI planners will identify future emission scenarios from 2010 & 2020 population conditions (when regional populations will be 2 x present values) to test in CAMx Jordanian scientists will become part of project

46. FIRST CALL: ASAAQ2005 THE 2005 ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND AIR QUALITY CONF WILL BE HELD ON 27-29 APRIL 2005 IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA, USBA. ABSTRACT SUBMISSION INFO CAN BE FOUND AT THE AMERICAN METEOR- OLOGICAL SOCIETY WEB PAGE: AMETSOC.ORG OR FROM BOB BORNSTEIN AT PBLMODEL@HOTMAIL.COM PBLMODEL@HOTMAIL.COM OR FROM GREG CARMICHAEL AT GCARMICH@ENGINEERING.UIOWA.EDU