1. PART I AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY AND ECOSYSTEMS: CURRENT AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

2. MODULE 1 AN INTRODUCTION TO CURRENT AND FUTURE CHALLENGES MODULE 1 AN INTRODUCTION TO CURRENT AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

3. Module objectives and structure Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges Objectives This module, intended as a brief introduction, summarises the multiple challenges that agriculture, and the ecosystems it depends on, are facing and will face in the next decades. Structure We give brief introductions to the multiple challenges and illustrate them through information that has been produced at global level. Illustrations are linked to files with a larger view, expanding on the topics covered, or providing access to full text documents, click on them to access the resources. Caveat The information provided in this module normally covers estimations at global levels which may be less refined than information at national level, but they are intended as a way to exemplify the general global direction and the challenges that agriculture and farmers are facing all over the world. Objectives This module, intended as a brief introduction, summarises the multiple challenges that agriculture, and the ecosystems it depends on, are facing and will face in the next decades. Structure We give brief introductions to the multiple challenges and illustrate them through information that has been produced at global level. Illustrations are linked to files with a larger view, expanding on the topics covered, or providing access to full text documents, click on them to access the resources. Caveat The information provided in this module normally covers estimations at global levels which may be less refined than information at national level, but they are intended as a way to exemplify the general global direction and the challenges that agriculture and farmers are facing all over the world.

4. An increasing population The world population may be 9.3 and 10.1 billion in 2050 and 2100, respectively In some regions population will decline and in others it will increase drastically More efficient food production will be needed to cover population demands The world population may be 9.3 and 10.1 billion in 2050 and 2100, respectively In some regions population will decline and in others it will increase drastically More efficient food production will be needed to cover population demands According to World population prospects, the 2010 revision, the worlds population will reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10.1 billion by 2100, or 35% and 47% larger than in 2010, respectively. World population prospects, the 2010 revision Changes between 2010 and 2050 will vary between sub-regions and countries. Populations in some countries are expected to increase, e.g. Western Asia (+70%), Middle Africa (+120%), Sub- Saharan Africa (+129%), Eastern Africa (+141%), and Western Africa (+144%); while in others populations are expect to decline, e.g. Eastern Europe (-13%) and Eastern Asia (-4%). The most populated sub-regions by 2050 are expected to be South Central Asia (2.5 billion), Southern Asia (2.4 billion), Sub-Saharan Africa (2 billion) and Eastern Asia (1.5 billion). More efficient food production and distribution will be required to cover the needs of larger populations in these regions. According to World population prospects, the 2010 revision, the worlds population will reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10.1 billion by 2100, or 35% and 47% larger than in 2010, respectively. World population prospects, the 2010 revision Changes between 2010 and 2050 will vary between sub-regions and countries. Populations in some countries are expected to increase, e.g. Western Asia (+70%), Middle Africa (+120%), Sub- Saharan Africa (+129%), Eastern Africa (+141%), and Western Africa (+144%); while in others populations are expect to decline, e.g. Eastern Europe (-13%) and Eastern Asia (-4%). The most populated sub-regions by 2050 are expected to be South Central Asia (2.5 billion), Southern Asia (2.4 billion), Sub-Saharan Africa (2 billion) and Eastern Asia (1.5 billion). More efficient food production and distribution will be required to cover the needs of larger populations in these regions. Estimated and projected world population (billions) according to different variants, 1950–2100. Source: World population prospects, the 2010 revision. Population Division, DESA, UN.World population prospects, the 2010 revision. Population Division, DESA, UN Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

5. Changes in consumer habits Rapid income growth, urbanization and population growth have increased the demand for animal products It is likely that demand will continue to increase Rapid income growth, urbanization and population growth have increased the demand for animal products It is likely that demand will continue to increase Rapid income growth, urbanization and population growth have increased the demand for meat and other animal products in many developing countries. Despite the complex factors that control demand, projections suggest a continued growth: A 2008 study from IFPRI projected increases in global per capita demand for meat by 2050 (see table). The OECD and FAO project that between 2009 and 2018 dairy demand will continue to grow. In developing countries per capita demand is expected to increase at an annual rate of 1.2%. Overall production growth is projected at 1.7% per year in the same period, particularly in developing countries. See also The state of food and agriculture 2009, livestock in the balance. The state of food and agriculture 2009, livestock in the balance Rapid income growth, urbanization and population growth have increased the demand for meat and other animal products in many developing countries. Despite the complex factors that control demand, projections suggest a continued growth: A 2008 study from IFPRI projected increases in global per capita demand for meat by 2050 (see table). The OECD and FAO project that between 2009 and 2018 dairy demand will continue to grow. In developing countries per capita demand is expected to increase at an annual rate of 1.2%. Overall production growth is projected at 1.7% per year in the same period, particularly in developing countries. See also The state of food and agriculture 2009, livestock in the balance. The state of food and agriculture 2009, livestock in the balance Meat consumption in 2000 and projection for 2050 (kg/person/ year). Source: Adapted from Rosegrant and Thornton, 2008.Rosegrant and Thornton, 2008 20002050 Central and West Asia and North Africa2033 East and South Asia and the Pacific2851 Latin America and the Caribbean5877 North America and Europe8389 Sub-Saharan Africa1122 Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

6. Changes in cultivated land Global cultivated land per person has gradually declined from 0.44 ha to less than 0.25 ha over the last 50 years The demand for agriculture production by 2050 is expected to be 70% more than in 2009. Increases should come from intensification on existing land Global cultivated land per person has gradually declined from 0.44 ha to less than 0.25 ha over the last 50 years The demand for agriculture production by 2050 is expected to be 70% more than in 2009. Increases should come from intensification on existing land According to FAOs State of Land and Water (SOLAW) report, in the last 50 years: the worlds agricultural production has grown between 2.5 and 3 times; more than 40% of the increase in food production came from the doubling of irrigated areas; global cultivated land per person has gradually declined from 0.44 ha to less than 0.25 ha. The decline is due to many factors, such as population increase, abandonment of agriculture, urbanization, land degradation, etc. By 2050 the population is likely to demand 70% more food compared to 2009. The increased production should come primarily from intensification on existing cultivated land. According to FAOs State of Land and Water (SOLAW) report, in the last 50 years: the worlds agricultural production has grown between 2.5 and 3 times; more than 40% of the increase in food production came from the doubling of irrigated areas; global cultivated land per person has gradually declined from 0.44 ha to less than 0.25 ha. The decline is due to many factors, such as population increase, abandonment of agriculture, urbanization, land degradation, etc. By 2050 the population is likely to demand 70% more food compared to 2009. The increased production should come primarily from intensification on existing cultivated land. Evolution of land under irrigated and rainfed cropping (1961–2008). Source: State of Land and Water (SOLAW), FAO.State of Land and Water Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

7. Increased water use Agriculture uses about 70% of global fresh water withdrawals Water withdrawals for agriculture have tripled over the last 50 years In some basins abstraction has approached the renewability threshold Agriculture uses about 70% of global fresh water withdrawals Water withdrawals for agriculture have tripled over the last 50 years In some basins abstraction has approached the renewability threshold According to The world water development report 3, in the year 2000 total global annual freshwater use was about 4,000 km 3 with agriculture withdrawing about 70% (some countries up to 90%). The world water development report 3 Annual water withdrawals per person ranged from 20 m 3 in Uganda to more than 5,000 m 3 in Turkmenistan, with a world average of 600 m 3. Water withdrawals were highest in arid and semi-arid areas, where irrigation is most needed for agricultural production. Water withdrawals for agriculture have tripled over the last 50 years due to the rapid increase in irrigation. Abstraction of water has approached or exceeded the threshold of renewability of water resources in many river basins. Groundwater withdrawals rose fivefold during the 20 th century, leading to a rapid drawdown of aquifers in some areas. According to The world water development report 3, in the year 2000 total global annual freshwater use was about 4,000 km 3 with agriculture withdrawing about 70% (some countries up to 90%). The world water development report 3 Annual water withdrawals per person ranged from 20 m 3 in Uganda to more than 5,000 m 3 in Turkmenistan, with a world average of 600 m 3. Water withdrawals were highest in arid and semi-arid areas, where irrigation is most needed for agricultural production. Water withdrawals for agriculture have tripled over the last 50 years due to the rapid increase in irrigation. Abstraction of water has approached or exceeded the threshold of renewability of water resources in many river basins. Groundwater withdrawals rose fivefold during the 20 th century, leading to a rapid drawdown of aquifers in some areas. Water resources and withdrawals in 2000. Source: WWDR-3.WWDR-3 Water withdrawals per person per country in 2000. Source WWDR-3.WWDR-3 Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

8. Land and water quality degradation Achievements in agricultural production in some cases have been accompanied by poor land and water management Poor land and water management results in degradation of their quality, impacts on ecosystems and economic losses Achievements in agricultural production in some cases have been accompanied by poor land and water management Poor land and water management results in degradation of their quality, impacts on ecosystems and economic losses Global achievements in agricultural production have been accompanied in some cases by poor management of cultivated land and water resources, leading to the deterioration of the ecosystems of which they are part. Poor land and water management has contributed to loss of soil structure, soil nutrients, organic matter and therefore soil fertility; reduced water storage and supply; increased surface and groundwater pollution (from excessive use of pesticides and nutrients); the modification of ecosystems and their services; and salinization of soils in irrigated drylands. Rehabilitating degraded ecosystems is costly and sometimes impossible. In a scenario where higher production is required, there is a need to monitor practices and avoid losses of land, water and ecosystem services. Global achievements in agricultural production have been accompanied in some cases by poor management of cultivated land and water resources, leading to the deterioration of the ecosystems of which they are part. Poor land and water management has contributed to loss of soil structure, soil nutrients, organic matter and therefore soil fertility; reduced water storage and supply; increased surface and groundwater pollution (from excessive use of pesticides and nutrients); the modification of ecosystems and their services; and salinization of soils in irrigated drylands. Rehabilitating degraded ecosystems is costly and sometimes impossible. In a scenario where higher production is required, there is a need to monitor practices and avoid losses of land, water and ecosystem services. Saline soils in agricultural fields. Photo: T. Friedrich. Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

9. Agricultural pollution and GHG emissions Agricultural pollution, a form of land degradation, is increasing as the result of inappropriate agriculture intensification practices in many countries. The overuse of fertilizers and pesticides, the erosion of soils, and the production of large amounts of animal waste that is not recycled or reused is increasing the pollution of soils, water and agricultural produce. This results in serious concerns for ecosystems and human health. In addition, agriculture emits significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHG), e.g. CO 2 from burning residues, N 2 O from fertilizers and CH 4 from rice and livestock production. Module 4 will expand on problems associated with land degradation and agricultural pollution in particular. Agricultural pollution, a form of land degradation, is increasing as the result of inappropriate agriculture intensification practices in many countries. The overuse of fertilizers and pesticides, the erosion of soils, and the production of large amounts of animal waste that is not recycled or reused is increasing the pollution of soils, water and agricultural produce. This results in serious concerns for ecosystems and human health. In addition, agriculture emits significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHG), e.g. CO 2 from burning residues, N 2 O from fertilizers and CH 4 from rice and livestock production. Module 4 will expand on problems associated with land degradation and agricultural pollution in particular. Discarded pesticide drums in Yeliman, Mali. Photo: FAO/Ivo Balderi. About 3.9 billion may be living under severe water stress by 2030 Inappropriate agriculture intensification has led to pollution of natural resources in many countries Agriculture also makes a large contribution to emissions of greenhouse gases Inappropriate agriculture intensification has led to pollution of natural resources in many countries Agriculture also makes a large contribution to emissions of greenhouse gases Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

10. Ecosystem services decline People benefit from resources and processes supplied by ecosystems, collectively called ecosystem services Pressure on natural resources affect ecosystems and their services People benefit from resources and processes supplied by ecosystems, collectively called ecosystem services Pressure on natural resources affect ecosystems and their services People benefit from fundamental resources and processes supplied by ecosystems. These are known as ecosystem services (ES), which for ease of study, have been classified into provisioning services; regulating services; supporting services; and cultural services. See more…See more… Humans are part of many ecosystems, but our activities are damaging them at a faster rate that they can recover. If ecosystems are disrupted, functions start to decline and the production of many fundamental services for life are impaired. Scientists and economists are trying to assign values to ES, in order to understand how much does this decline can cost, but beyond their monetary value, they are fundamental for life. An example of a national ecosystem assessment can be found here.here People benefit from fundamental resources and processes supplied by ecosystems. These are known as ecosystem services (ES), which for ease of study, have been classified into provisioning services; regulating services; supporting services; and cultural services. See more…See more… Humans are part of many ecosystems, but our activities are damaging them at a faster rate that they can recover. If ecosystems are disrupted, functions start to decline and the production of many fundamental services for life are impaired. Scientists and economists are trying to assign values to ES, in order to understand how much does this decline can cost, but beyond their monetary value, they are fundamental for life. An example of a national ecosystem assessment can be found here.here Bee with red pollen on its legs. Pollination is an essential ecosystem service. Photo: Kathy K. Garvey. Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

11. Competition for water resources About 3.9 billion people (over one billion more than in 2008) may be living under severe water stress by 2030, according to the OECD. Competition for water exists at all levels and is expected to increase with higher water stress and demand for water in almost all countries. Competition can include allocation between: Agriculture and cities, in particular with increasing urbanization; Electricity generation, crop production and fisheries; Livestock, food crops, non-food crops and fisheries; Storage of water for drought emergencies, which will reduce flows for all other sectors; Different countries depending on water from the same river basin. About 3.9 billion people (over one billion more than in 2008) may be living under severe water stress by 2030, according to the OECD. Competition for water exists at all levels and is expected to increase with higher water stress and demand for water in almost all countries. Competition can include allocation between: Agriculture and cities, in particular with increasing urbanization; Electricity generation, crop production and fisheries; Livestock, food crops, non-food crops and fisheries; Storage of water for drought emergencies, which will reduce flows for all other sectors; Different countries depending on water from the same river basin. Water stress, 2030. Source: Environmental Outlook to 2030, OECD.Environmental Outlook to 2030, OECD About 3.9 billion may be living under severe water stress by 2030 About 3.9 billion people may experience severe water stress by 2030 Competition for water exists at all levels Competition between agriculture and non agriculture sectors will increase About 3.9 billion people may experience severe water stress by 2030 Competition for water exists at all levels Competition between agriculture and non agriculture sectors will increase Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

12. Competition for land: Food or energy? The risks that climate change pose on food security are particularly pressing at a time of high oil prices. High fuel prices make agricultural production more expensive by raising the cost of fertilizers, irrigation and transportation. In some countries, the need for efficient energy supplies has resulted in governments biofuel subsidies and agriculture-based energy production has surged. In some areas farmers have switched to producing crops for biodiesel. As new linkages and trade-offs are created between the energy and agriculture sector, energy and food prices are becoming increasingly intertwined. Authorities will face the challenge of guiding communities production according to their needs. They will need to plan carefully, assessing the long term risks or benefits of choosing between food and energy production. The risks that climate change pose on food security are particularly pressing at a time of high oil prices. High fuel prices make agricultural production more expensive by raising the cost of fertilizers, irrigation and transportation. In some countries, the need for efficient energy supplies has resulted in governments biofuel subsidies and agriculture-based energy production has surged. In some areas farmers have switched to producing crops for biodiesel. As new linkages and trade-offs are created between the energy and agriculture sector, energy and food prices are becoming increasingly intertwined. Authorities will face the challenge of guiding communities production according to their needs. They will need to plan carefully, assessing the long term risks or benefits of choosing between food and energy production. Fruit of Jatropha curcas, a biofuel source. Photo: A. Lubari. Farmers in some countries are increasingly using their land for biofuel production Authorities will face the challenge of assessing trade-offs between choosing food or bioenergy production Farmers in some countries are increasingly using their land for biofuel production Authorities will face the challenge of assessing trade-offs between choosing food or bioenergy production Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

13. Climate variability and change It is apparent that the world is warming up at a much faster rate than natural systems, agro-ecosystems and humans can naturally adapt to. An increasingly warmer world and a higher incidence of weather events will have a large impact on agriculture and food security. While some regions are likely to benefit from changes, the large majority of farmers around the world will suffer the impacts of climate change: the yields of current cropping systems in many places are likely to fall and they will need to look for ways to adapt their production to new conditions. Modules 2 and 3 expand on climate variability and change and their impacts for agricultural production. It is apparent that the world is warming up at a much faster rate than natural systems, agro-ecosystems and humans can naturally adapt to. An increasingly warmer world and a higher incidence of weather events will have a large impact on agriculture and food security. While some regions are likely to benefit from changes, the large majority of farmers around the world will suffer the impacts of climate change: the yields of current cropping systems in many places are likely to fall and they will need to look for ways to adapt their production to new conditions. Modules 2 and 3 expand on climate variability and change and their impacts for agricultural production. Changes in agricultural yields. Source: World Development Report 2010,The World Bank.World Development Report 2010The World Bank. About 3.9 billion may be living under severe water stress by 2030 The world is warming at a much faster rate than agro-ecosystems and humans can naturally adapt to The large majority of farmers will be forced to change their production methods The world is warming at a much faster rate than agro-ecosystems and humans can naturally adapt to The large majority of farmers will be forced to change their production methods Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges Projections of global surface warming. Source: Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Report (Syr-3), IPPC.Syr-3IPPC

14. Resources References used in this module and further reading This list contains the references used in this module. You can access the full text of some of these references through this information package or through their respective websites, by clicking on references, hyperlinks or images. In the case of material for which we cannot include the full text due to special copyrights, we provide a link to its abstract in the Internet.list Institutions dealing with the issues covered in the module In this list you will find resources to identify national and international institutions that might hold information on the topics covered through out this information package.list Glossary, acronyms and abbreviations In this glossary you can find the most common terms as used in the context of climate change. In addition the FAOTERM portal contains agricultural terms in different languages. Acronyms of institutions and abbreviations used throughout the package are included here.glossaryFAOTERM portalhere References used in this module and further reading This list contains the references used in this module. You can access the full text of some of these references through this information package or through their respective websites, by clicking on references, hyperlinks or images. In the case of material for which we cannot include the full text due to special copyrights, we provide a link to its abstract in the Internet.list Institutions dealing with the issues covered in the module In this list you will find resources to identify national and international institutions that might hold information on the topics covered through out this information package.list Glossary, acronyms and abbreviations In this glossary you can find the most common terms as used in the context of climate change. In addition the FAOTERM portal contains agricultural terms in different languages. Acronyms of institutions and abbreviations used throughout the package are included here.glossaryFAOTERM portalhere Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

16. Please select one of the following to continue: Part I - Agriculture, food security and ecosystems: current and future challenges Module 1. An introduction to current and future challenges Module 2. Climate variability and climate change Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production Module 4. Agriculture, environment and health Part II - Addressing challenges Module 5. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: technical considerations and examples of production systems Module 6. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: supporting tools and policies About the information package How to use Credits Contact us How to cite the information package C. Licona Manzur and Rhodri P. Thomas (2011). Climate resilient and environmentally sound agriculture or climate-smart agriculture: An information package for government authorities. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Please select one of the following to continue: Part I - Agriculture, food security and ecosystems: current and future challenges Module 1. An introduction to current and future challenges Module 2. Climate variability and climate change Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production Module 4. Agriculture, environment and health Part II - Addressing challenges Module 5. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: technical considerations and examples of production systems Module 6. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: supporting tools and policies About the information package How to use Credits Contact us How to cite the information package C. Licona Manzur and Rhodri P. Thomas (2011). Climate resilient and environmentally sound agriculture or climate-smart agriculture: An information package for government authorities. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.