1. University of Colorado and NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center
Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Issue Paper (DRAFT) Climate Change in the Caribbean: Water, Agriculture, Forestry
Dr. Roger S. Pulwarty
University of Colorado and
NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center
Boulder CO 80305

2. Timescales of Climate Variation And Climate Change in the Caribbean
Background
Water Resources in the Caribbean: an overview
Agriculture, Food Security and Forestry in the Caribbean
Timescales of Climate Variation And Climate Change in the Caribbean
Impacts on Water Resources
Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security
Approaches to Adaptation: Integrating climate and
natural resources assessments under a decision-oriented framework

3. Appendices
APPENDIX B. Climate and APPENDIX A: Water and Climate Dialogue Summary Statements
Food Security: Implications for Research and Policy
APPENDIX C. IWCAM Summary statements
APPENDIX D. Climate and agricultural applications in the Caribbean: A case study of climate information use in sugar production in Trinidad (summary)

4. Three questions under the MACC framework:
Are planning strategies for water, agricultural and forest resources in the Caribbean supported by the climate record?
What additional pressures will be placed on these resources as a result of projected climatic variability and change?
(3) What practical strategies may be engaged to reduce vulnerability and enhance social, economic and ecological resilience?

5. Characteristics of small island environments
Ecological/environmental
Geographical
Socio-economic
Historical and political

6. Climate change projections for the Caribbean region
Trends
Avg. annual air temp 1 F
Sea level rise 10 cm (3.9 ins) per 100 yrs
Generally drier conditions
Scenarios for Future Climate
2-3 C
Drier mid-year, wetter end of year
Ocean surface warming
Salt water intrusion into freshwater
Some models suggest more persistent ENSO-like conditions and less but more intense more intense tropical storms (5-10% windspeed)

8. Changes in the total amount of precipitation and in its frequency and
intensity directly affect the magnitude and timing of runoff and the
intensity of floods and droughts; however, at present, specific
regional effects are uncertain
The impacts of climate change will depend on the baseline conditions
of the water supply system and the ability of water resource
managers to respond not only to climate change but also to
population growth and changes in demands, technology, and
economic, social and legislative conditions
Note: the latter are also “baseline” conditions

9. Where does climate variability
come from?
NAO TA
ENSO

13. Sugar-industry operations chain
Cane cultivation
Planting schedule
Pesticide and
herbicide applications
IPM application
Irrigation timing
Runoff/erosion control
Fire management
Harvest operations
and transport
Milling and
Sugar production
Initiation of harvest
Completion of harvest
Selective harvesting
Road repair
Soil compaction and
field conditions
Fire management
Marketing and
Shipping
Milling initiation
Cane and
sugar storage
Likelihood of
meeting quota
Shipping timing
(delays etc)
storage
requirement
Secondary economies impact, minimizing environmental impacts, land-use/settlements

19. Non-ENSO or Atlantic multi-decadal mode of global sea surface temperature(SST) (A) spatial correlations between first EOF and Atlantic SSTs; (B) temporal reconstruction of variability averaged over the rectangle in A (Goldenberg et all 2001)

20. Caribbean hurricane tracks and strength during (A) warm and
(B) cold Atlantic multidecadal modes

21. The question remains “ Can we produce reliable baselines for planning give the large amount of year to year and decade to decade variations in the Caribbean?”
Need for careful monitoring and inventory of critical variables and indicators (available and gaps)
Need for “upscaling” local climate/met./hydro data and experience as well as “downscaling” models (precision vs. accuracy)

22. …viewed from Sectors and more… The Decision Mineral & Fossil Fuel
Assessment
Information and Decision Support Systems
Knowledge-based Products
Climate Simulations
Observations and Monitoring
The Decision
Interdisciplinary Research
Mineral &
Fossil Fuel
Extraction
Agriculture
& silviculture
Urban
Development
Water &
Sustainability
Ecosystem &
Land Use
Management
Conservation
& Biodiversity
Health &
Disease
and more…
Recreation

23. Integrated Water Resource Assessments
Assessment of biophysical impacts on:
hydrologic resources,
water quality, and
aquatic ecosystem integrity.
Assessment of socio-economic impacts on:
demand from market water use sectors, and
water resources management systems

24. Water resources adaptations
Supply adaptation:
modification of existing physical infrastructure;
construction of new infrastructure; and
alternative management of the existing water supply systems
Demand adaptation:
conservation and improved efficiency;
technological change; and
market/price-driven transfers to other activities.

27. Trends and conditioning factors
Unit(s) of analysis: Upstream-downstream,
watershed, urban
Relevant hydro-climatic variables: data,qc, uncertainties
Demands : Scale, trends and criticality
Reliability of supply and distribution
Separation of regulatory and operational responsibilities
Integration of water quantity and quality
Security of rights
Incorporation of climate issues in existing networks priorities and policies
Post-audits of past events and technical interventions
- if we did or are doing everything possible why did it work or not work?

28. Established frameworks for water allocation: national level
Legal basis- water rights, legal/regulatory framework
Institutional base-Govt. and Non-govt. Mandates,responsibilities and practices
Technical base-monitoring, assessment, decision support modeling
Financial and economic aspects-costs/benefits,pricing trading
Participation
Structural and development base-water supply and operations, users

29. If so…………
………So what

30. Optimizing the net social benefit
Difficulty in dealing with all related social aims of water/natural resource uses
Difficulty in forging agreed-upon criteria for program evaluation
Lack of progress in comprehensive integrated management and in coordinating watersheds plans
Lack of comprehensive assessments of projects and initiatives

31. “Sufficient, reliable data are not available or shared at present to undertake a thorough analysis of the multiple threats to water resources, forestry, or food security”
e.g. water consumption rates (availability per capita) and access to network water and sanitation facilities: changing levels of domestic water use, deterioration? Of piped water, tourism, costs of obtaining water

32. IWCAM…
Institutional mechanisms must be put in place at the national and regional level, to undertake the regular dissemination of user-friendly information on such technologies as well as to assist with the training of nationals in the use of such technology
Introduction of incentives to encourage the use of appropriate
What does “capacity building” mean in this context?

33. ….viewed from Information chain
Dialog, not two monologues
Assessment
Information and Decision Support Systems
Knowledge-based Products
Climate Simulations
Observations and Monitoring
The Decision
Interdisciplinary Research
Improved
Decision
Process
Information and Decision Support Systems
Knowledge-based Products
Climate Simulations
The Decision
Interdisciplinary Research
Observations and Monitoring
Distributed dissemination
New technologies
Interactive
User friendly
Flexible
Knowledge-based Products
The Decision
Interdisciplinary Research
Observations and Monitoring
Climate Simulations
Place-based and sector-based
User oriented
Scenarios and probabilistic outcomes
Synthesis
Climate Simulations
The Decision
Interdisciplinary Research
Observations and Monitoring
Types of models
Scale
Temporal
Spatial
Performance metrics
Observations and Monitoring
The Decision
Interdisciplinary Research
Network design
Platforms
Appropriate mix of observations
Quality assurance and control
The Decision
Interdisciplinary Research
Framing the question
Synthesis tools
Data assimilation & visualization
Complexity models
Scenario development and testing
Understanding methodologies
Place-based
The Decision
Climate simulations & scenarios
Social trends
Demographics
Energy use
Land use
Institutions
Policies
Laws
Values
Politics

34. Create a matrix of functional responsibilities of water-related Ministries and organizations to identify pathways for decision-making
1. Establishing and consolidate a viable scientific basis for water resources management sector and for (inter)national (water) policies
Initiating a multi-stakeholder process that builds the knowledge to cope with climate variability and change.
Building and share knowledge and information by bridging climate variability/change and water communities
4. Raising awareness of the issues relating climate and water, and broaden scientific, political and water managers participation in the discussion

36. Understand Current Vulnerability and Assess Trends
Effects Related to Altered Resources
Characterize the Risk of Climatic Variations and Review Past and Potential Responses
National Food Balance
Institutional Development
Household Food Poverty
Income Components
Cultural Preferences
Demography
Individual Food Deprivation
Nutritional Status
Health Status
Social Status: Three pillars of food security: food production, economic access to available food, and nutritional security
Which group(s) really maintain these pillars?

37. Developing effective decision environments (a role for C5)
Establish Regional Climate and Natural Resources Roundtables (which also provide for data sharing)
Serve as a clearinghouse mechanism for promoting, initiating and facilitating climate change programs and policies;
Review national strategies for enhancing the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and advising government on the way forward
Such Roundtables should:
Evaluate options, information, and technology and to examine the sectors that will most benefit from these inputs among existing institutions
Explore the feasibility of establishing a regional plan of action to identify and adapt, where appropriate, successful examples of water conservation and watershed programs;
Identify entry points for information at different levels of governance
(not just information provision)

38. Indeterminate
Climate and cross-scale watershed issues: Linear vs. Adaptive management
Long-term
Decade
Year
Seasonal
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
Household-municipal-
National
Global
Parish/County
Regional

39. Developing prototypes or pilot studies for climate impacts assessments
Select the exposure unit (usually at the watershed)
Define the study area and critical issue
Determine general data availability and adequacy
Select a time horizon
Identify trends and influences on trend for critical issues
Identify a preliminary range of adaptations
Determine the need for integration across sectors
Problem-orientation
Do we really know how we adjust to drought condtions?

40. How do we effectively integrate these two?……

42. Approaches to risk communication and associated assumptions
___________________________________________________________________________
Approach Assumptions and actions
Development and From the risk expert to the public--finite and
delivery of a risk message uni-directional
Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert views
Assumes expert view has more validity for decision- making
Dialogue about risk Interactive exchange of risk information--continuous
Aimed at balancing the content of risk message
Assumes both views contribute to decision-making
Social processes Engage in a process that addresses concerns about risk
of risk communication Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders (DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as important as the product
_____________________________________________________________________________
i.e. more than a one-way or even two-way street

43. Not simply communicating after project is over
Link pilots to strong institutional mechanisms: Realizing implementation
Past recommendations and interventions: How effective were they? What criteria are used for evaluation?
Not simply communicating after project is over
Involving local organizations in planning and
implementation
Partnerships (not just stakeholder assessments)
How is the common interest pursued and secured? Where and why have particular local organizations been successful and sustained?

44. Mainstreaming……..
What partnerships need to be engaged? What activities already exist?
Goals of participants: What is being valued?
(by “experts and role of experts”, state agencies, NGOs, local communities) Whose agenda are we agreeing on?
Trends: Robustness: choice, inventory and baselines
Conditioning factors: reconstructing influences on events, past interventions
Projections (scenarios and uncertainties)
Alternatives: acting under uncertain information
Pathways to decision-making: ,data, methods,Entry points: salience, legitimacy, acceptability, context

45. How does innovation occur
How does innovation occur? Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation in water resources agencies Y= f(Xi)
Xi = (compatibility of innovation with needs and values
.capacity and characteristics
.1/complexity of innovation
.communicability within agency
.communication networks outside
(incl. other resources and other
national water agencies)
.% of initial innovators
.investment in innovation

46. Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation Y= f(Xi)
.observability in practice:who is else is involved?
.evaluation of support tools:DSS,pricing (transfer of tested and untested approaches)
.respect conferred)