1. The impact of social media on the Arab uprisings Pippa Norris Harvard University and the University of Sydney www.pippanorris.com

2. Structure I.Theoretical framework II.Data sources and evidence III.Analysis and results IV.Conclusions and implications

3. I. Theoretical framework Social Media – Platforms eg Facebook, Twitter – Channels eg blogs, websites, text messages Personal Media Mass Media Complex mélange of interactive sources

4. Potential impact of social media? Informational – News about uprisings Networking – Reduce transaction costs of collective action Cultural – Reinforce democratic aspirations Behavioral – Encourage propensity to engage in protest action Or null hypothesis?

5. II: Data sources Zogby Research Services Surveys 12-29 September 2011 N.4,205. 7 nations The Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project survey spring 2010. N.3,915. 4 nations World Values Survey 2005-7 Aggregate data on ICTs

6. III RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

7. Internet access and economic development in the Middle East and North Africa, 2007 Note: Internet users per 100 inhabitants, International Telecommunications Union Source: ITU; Penn World Tables.

8. Internet access and Facebook penetration, worldwide

9. General use of news sources TunisiaEgyptLebanonJordan Saudi Arabia UAEIran MASS MEDIA Satellite television networks6576434232280 National or local television networks 20418562585653 Newspapers13141327334857 SOCIAL MEDIA Internet news sites928193824929 Social media sites such as Facebook, Twitter 62239310153 PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS Talking to friends and family27182528425359 Note: Q What are the two most important ways that you follow news and information about events in your country? Choose two. Source: Zogby Research Services Surveys 12-29 September 2011 N.4,205.

10. News sources used to follow the Arab uprisings TunisiaEgyptLebanonJordan Saudi Arabia UAEIran MASS MEDIA Satellite television networks8277549173568 National or local television networks 0397223181551 Newspapers16 1410203150 ONLINE MEDIA Internet news sites13241952423327 Social media sites such as Facebook, Twitter 5626126132021 PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS Talking to friends and family33182519334544 Note: Q: What are the two most important ways that you followed the news and information of the recent uprisings in the Arab world? Choose two. Source: Zogby Research Services Surveys 12-29 September 2011 N.4,205.

11. Most popular uses of social media, Tunisia and Egypt Facebook usersTwitter users TunisiaEgyptTunisiaEgypt Communicating with family and friends 59 1815 Meeting new people33351517 Expressing my views45533031 Getting news or information62574432 Becoming involved in politics20332218 Professional networking21262522 Note: Among users of Facebook and Twitter. Q:Now that you are a member of Facebook/Twitter, how helpful to you, personally, has Facebook been for:… % respondingVery helpful Source: Zogby Research Services Online Surveys, 13-15 September 2010, N. 1133.

12. Dissatisfaction with the future direction of the country EgyptJordanLebanonTurkeyAll Social media users 5156856664 Not users7568895973 Difference-24-12-4+7-9 Note: Do you ever use online social networking sites like Facebook? Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country today? % dissatisfied. Source: The Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project survey spring 2010. N.3,915.

13. The impact of media use on protest activism Protest activism scale INDIVIDUAL LEVEL Demographic characteristicsbseP. (sig) Age (in years).053.004*** Sex(male=1).019.004*** Socioeconomic resources Household income 10-pt scale.009.004* Education 9-pt scale.131.005*** Knowledge of democracy.078.004*** Democratic attitudes Democratic aspirations.005.004*** Democratic satisfaction-.026.004*** Media use Newspaper use.043.004 *** Television and radio news use.017.004 *** Internet use.075.004*** NATIONAL-LEVEL Historic experience of democracy.222.032*** Constant (intercept).567.031 Schwartz BIC107,750 N. respondents46,700 N. nations42 Source: World Values Survey 2005-7

14. Conclusions 1.People used social media for information and networking, supplementing mass media and personal communications 2.Satellite networks (eg Al Jazeera and Al Arabyia) were more popular than social media platforms 3. Social media users were not particularly radical in their political orientations 4.General use of the news media - and especially the internet - significantly associated with engagement in protest activism

15. Qualifications The unique role claimed for social media may have been exaggerated Contributed to uprisings but not unique Unfolding events in Arab uprisings (Syria, Libya and Egypt…) so work in progress Further evidence becoming available from 6 th wave WVS (2010-2012)