Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and Health; impact and adaption issues"— Presentation transcript:
1Climate Change and Health; impact and adaption issues Professor Philippa Howden-ChapmanDr Simon HalesDr Nick WilsonHe Kainga Oranga/ Housing and Health Research ProgrammeNZ Centre for Sustainable CitiesUniversity of Otago, Wellington
2AdaptationAdaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate changes and their effectsFor social systems, adaptive capacity, resilience and vulnerability all matterProjections come from past observation, observed interventions and modellingPrecautionary action essential & equitable
3Outline Potential health effects – “2°C” scenario Local effects of heat, air pollutionAltered infectious disease distribution (IPCC)Potential health effects – 4°C scenarioIncrease in above effectsLikely major impact of global (incl. Pacific) social disruptionAdaptation measures (both scenarios)Housing, infrastructure (e.g. energy, water)Adaptation measures (high carbon scenario)“Lifeboat NZ”
5Heat-related diseases In Auckland and Christchurch, a small number of heat-related deaths occur annually in people aged over 65 and will increase (McMichael et al., 2003).Current 1600 excess winter deaths likely to declineN.B. European heat-waves in 2003 killed 70,000 people… epidemiological models did not predict this scale of mortality
6Health effects of increasing temperatures Warmer temperatures and increased rainfall variability are likely to increase the intensity and frequency of food-borne and water-borne diseases.Higher than average temperatures lead to ~30% of reported European cases of salmonellosis. In UK, monthly incidence of food poisoning most strongly associated with the temperatures occurring in the previous two to five weeks.
7Health effects of increasing temperatures Deaths in forest firesImpacts on aero-allergens and photochemical smog in cities uncertain. Increase in bushfires and smoke would increase hospital admissions for cardio-respiratory conditions.
8Infectious diseaseWarmer temperatures and increased rainfall variability are likely to increase food-borne and water-borne diseases.Infectious agents (protozoa, bacteria and viruses) and vector organisms (mosquitoes, ticks and sand-flies) no thermostatic mechanisms, so reproduction and survival rates are strongly affected by fluctuations in temperature.
9Water quality Increasing irregularity of supply Social gradient in water quality in New ZealandWater metering and charging could further increase inequalities and infectious diseasesHouseholds need right to minimum amount of water at no charge -- important for cleanliness and contagion control
10Rise of respiratory diseases Rise of tuberculosis globally and nationallyCrowding from population movement increases transmission of TBBaker M, Das D, Venugopal K, Howden-Chapman P. Tuberculosis associated with household crowding in a developed country. Journal of Epidemiology Community Health 2008;000:1–8:doi: /jech
11Rise of infectious diseases Parts of the North Island likely to become suitable for breeding of the mosquitoes that are major dengue vectorMuch of NZ becomes receptive to other less-efficient vector speciesThe risk of dengue in NZ likely to remain below the threshold for local transmission beyond 2050, under both scenarios.
13VulnerabilityPeople living in remote communities are likely to be at increased risk due to their particular living conditions and poor access to services.Relationship between drought, suicide and severe mental health impacts in rural communities
14Not all have equal opportunity Vulnerable populations haveLow income and little wealthLess educatedThe very young and oldSole parents with childrenThose with chronic illnesses and disabilitiesThose living in socio-economically disadvantaged, residentially segregated areasThose who suffer racial discrimination
15Vulnerable are risk averse Those with economic power are risk-takers Poor bear consequences(Paul Slovic)
16DrowningNumber of people at risk from flooding by coastal storm surges projected to increaseCurrently 75 million people at riskProjected 200 million in mid-range climate scenarios (40cm rise in sea level by 2080s)Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 2005;Vol 438:doi: /nature04188.
17Extreme climate events: Hurricane Katrina Structural factors affected poor black people mostLevees poorly maintainedResidentially segregated to low lying areasLittle public transportCorruption, no functional emergency planPoor policy implementation
23Adaption at different societal levels Structural changes - shifting whole townsFood productionPopulation movements - refugeesUrban designHousingRegulation of markets in energy & water-equity as well as efficiency
24Adaptive capacity differs Capability and functioning both importantWealth, income, social and cultural capital increase ability to adaptAdaptive responses should not increasehealth inequalitiesSocial gradients in health vs tipping point
25Structural changesLocation of settlements (in relation to availability of secure water supplies, sea level rise and extreme events)Infrastructure (water, electricity, transport, communications) and ability to withstand climate extremesSuch as floods…
26Experts called in to help solve Kaeo's flooding dilemma 5:00AM Tuesday Jul 17, 2007 By Tony GeeEngineers and technical experts will be called to flood-hit Kaeo in about two weeks to identify long-term options aimed at reducing the constant risk of flooding in the small Far North town.Kaeo copped 273mm of rain in 12 hours last Tuesday, adding fresh recovery woes to those almost overcome since the deluge that swept through the area on March 29.The future of the flood-prone town and others like it was raised last week by Prime Minister Helen Clark, who suggested it might be time to consider whether such centres should be relocated.More rain yesterday flooded some bridges in the North, stranding Kerikeri pilot Gary Hansen at Wellsford. Photo / Greg BowkerThe big storm - North Island 2007July month of weather extremes and contrastsTower says July weather claims $2.7m over budget
27Urban Form 85% of New Zealander live in cities Urban sprawl increases carbon emissionsHeat islands increase surrounding temperatures ~ 2°C, 5-11°C warmer than surrounding rural areasPeople in suburbs and exurbs have longer commutes & less exercise, more obesity
28Urban form adaptations Need intensification of inner-city housingUnless work, housing and amenities are close together people will use their carsPublic transport should be dominant mode of transportGovernment 2009 Policy Statement on Land Transport $10.7 billion over next 10 years for State highways - $0.6 billion for public transport
29Adaptation to heat-waves Reduction of urban heat island effectsPassive cooling of buildingsClose monitoring through social networks important to prevent deaths in extreme weatherLack of trust can keep people locked in over-heated rooms
30Other examples of adaptation policy in housing: a strong case for greater provision of extended family housing for families in chain migrationincreases in social and health servicehigher proportion of social housing in all regions (presently only 5%)ethnically integrated suburbs -strength of weak tiesHousehold right to minimum amount of water important for cleanliness and contagion controlGreater use of grey water and rain water in cities (with appropriate safeguards against mosquito breeding)
31Likely (NZ) health impacts in a high carbon world?
32Health impacts would intensify However, not appropriate to simply extrapolate existing quantitative models of health impactEffects of global social dislocation likely to predominate (major indirect effect on NZ via migration)
33Vince (2009) in New Scientist: a high carbon world
34Adaptation to a high carbon world: National adaptation measures likely to be increasingly ineffective (especially in poor countries)Challenge to optimise global land use (Schellnhuber, 2009)(Mitigation+ Adaptation+ Development)
35Mind Game - Optimizing Allocation of Agricultural Sites 1995 share of agriculture(Müller et al. 2006)
36Mind Game - Optimizing Allocation of Agricultural Sites Globally optimized production scheme (pop. of 12 billion, diet of 1995)(Müller et al. 2006)
37Global solutionsIn exchange for protection of critical biodiversity in the poor “South”… the rich “North” provides food security, and a guarantee of migration rights…
39Co-benefits of NZ shifting to a low-carbon society WIN/WIN policiesMore energy efficient housing benefiting health & education & reducing energy costsBetter support for active transport (cycling, walking) will improve health (heart health, lower cancer risks etc)Cleaner non-carbon energy sources will reduce air pollutionImproved urban design will have benefits for social capital, mental healthLower carbon diets (less meat) will reduce risks of heart disease and cancer
40ConclusionsHealth effects of climate change should be an important driver of adaptation policyPredominant health effects through extreme weather events & infectious diseasesAdaptation possible in urban form and housingBuilding ‘linking social capital’ importantCo-benefits of moving to low-carbon economyPossibility of positive contribution to GDP
41ConclusionsHigh carbon scenario likely to involve major global social disruption.Can’t extrapolate health impacts in a simple linear fashion…Need global optimisation of land use, exchange of migration rights and food security in return for protection of “terrestrial commons”?
42ReferencesHales S, Black W, Skelly C, Salmond C, Weinstein P. Social deprivation and the public health risks of community drinking water supplies in New Zealand. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 2003;57:Hales S, Woodward A. Potential health impacts and policy responses. In: Chapman R, Boston J, Schwass M, editors. Confronting Climate Change: Critical issues for New Zealand. Wellington: Victoria University Press, 2006:Hales S, Howden-Chapman P, Baker M, Menne B, Woodruff R, Woodward A. Implications of global climate change for housing, human settlements and public health. Review of Environmental Health 2007;22(4):Hennessy, K., B. Fitzharris, B.C. Bates, N. Harvey, S.M. Howden, L. Hughes, J. Salinger and R. Warrick, 2007: Australia and New Zealand. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,Schellnhuber (Copenhagen talk)