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Forecasting process: Severe Weather. Early warning Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk 1. Receives the information 2. Understands.

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Presentation on theme: "Forecasting process: Severe Weather. Early warning Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk 1. Receives the information 2. Understands."— Presentation transcript:

1 Forecasting process: Severe Weather

2 Early warning Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk 1. Receives the information 2. Understands the information 3. BELIEVES the information 4. Personalizes the risk 5. Make correct decisions 6. Respond in a timely manner

3 Early warning Effective early warning should be: Short, concise, understandable and actionable What, where, when, why, how to respond Should be presented in several different formats – text-graphics-color coded categories-audio; should include specific actions for people to take in response to the event.

4 Process Identifying Severe Weather

5 UKMO Model 5-7 Day Lead time

6 NOAA Model 5-7 Day Lead time

7 Unified Model 24 Hour fine scale lead time

8 Web-based sources: QuickScat 5-7 Days: Issue an Advisory

9 Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office >100mm in 24hour 24 Hour pictorial view of upcoming Severe weather

10 Process: Current Issuing and disseminating Warning

11 DesktopWarning Distribution list Issuing of Warning

12 Posted on the Internet

13 Television Radio: KFM, Cape Talk, Tygerberg, CCFM, Voice of the Cape and many others Newspaper: Burger, Cape Times, Son, Argus, Local newspapers Telephone: Recorded message- Vodacom Service Telephone: Direct to Forecaster

14 Process: Current Monitoring and Amending warnings

15 Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office Extra Tropical Cyclone - Gamede Old Tropical Cyclone - Favio Cold Front Very Cold Air Mass Satellite images

16 Thunderstorm

17 Fog-Aviation Danger

18 Thunderstorm Fog-Aviation Danger

19 High Resolution

20 Super impose RADAR and Lightning Detection Lightning Detection strikes Cape Town Weather RADAR De Aar Weather RADAR Radar Lightning detection

21 Severe Bottom storm High likelihood of large hail

22 Analysis of Routine observations Surface Upper air Feedback from Disaster Managers and affected people Warning Updates issued regularly until threat has passed

23 Other Tools Webcams Independent Weather stations

24 Process: Current After Event

25 Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office

26 Any follow-up weather Rescue mission conditions Post-impact assessment: Meteorological Aspects

27

28 New Severe Weather Alert System

29

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31 Way Forward: 1.Re-define warning criteria in conjunction with Disaster Management structures. 2.Educate People-Risks, Adequate Preparedness, 3.Keep abreast with Modern Technology- Dissemination of warnings 4.Keep abreast with advancements in Meteorology-, Climatology research

32 South African Flash Flood Guidance System Delineation of River Basins Will Be Discussed Next

33 Thank You For Your Time

34 ains_winter.jpg res/thunderstorm.jpg


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