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Chapter 6 The Human Population and Urbanization Key Concepts Factors affecting population size Factors affecting population size Human population problems.

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Presentation on theme: "Chapter 6 The Human Population and Urbanization Key Concepts Factors affecting population size Factors affecting population size Human population problems."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Chapter 6 The Human Population and Urbanization

3 Key Concepts Factors affecting population size Factors affecting population size Human population problems Human population problems Managing population problems Managing population problems Urban growth Urban growth Resource and environmental problems in urban areas Resource and environmental problems in urban areas Transportation in urban areas Transportation in urban areas Achieving sustainable cities Achieving sustainable cities

4 Is the World Overpopulated? billion people by billion people by 2050 Limited resources Limited resources Environmental impacts (I=PAT) Environmental impacts (I=PAT) Some say no- Longer lifespans Some say no- Longer lifespans Economic growth- stimulated by pop. increase Economic growth- stimulated by pop. increase Religion and population growth Religion and population growth Freedom and population growth Freedom and population growth Poverty - 20% people without basic necessities Poverty - 20% people without basic necessities Ecological footprint Ecological footprint Fig. 6-1, p. 94

5 Is the World Overpopulated? Fig. 6-1, p. 94 Click for Current US and World Population

6 Factors Affecting Human Population Size Population change equation Population change equation Population change = (Births +Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration) Crude birth rate = # live births per 1,000 people per year Crude birth rate = # live births per 1,000 people per year Crude death rate = # deaths per 1,000 people per year Crude death rate = # deaths per 1,000 people per year Global population growth = 1.2% = 214,000 people per day (97% in developing countries) Global population growth = 1.2% = 214,000 people per day (97% in developing countries) Rule of 70: 70/ percentage growth rate = doubling time in years Rule of 70: 70/ percentage growth rate = doubling time in years Doubling time: 70/1.2 = 58 years Doubling time: 70/1.2 = 58 years

7 Average crude birth rateAverage crude death rate World All developed countries All developing countries Developing countries (w/o China) Average Crude Birth and Death Rates Worlds birth rate = 2.1% Worlds death rate = 0.9% Worlds pop. Growth rate = 1.2% Crude Growth Rate ÷ 10 = % Growth Rate

8 Average crude birth rateAverage crude death rate Africa Latin America Asia Oceania United States North America Europe Average Crude Birth and Death Rates

9 Animation Current and projected population sizes by region.

10 How Did the Human Population Increase So Rapidly? 1. Human intelligence and adaptation - enabled expansion to diverse habitats & new climate zones 2. Agriculture - feeds more people per unit area 3. Medical technologies and sanitation - controls infectious disease

11 Describing Population Changes Replacement-level fertility = # children a couple must bear to replace themselves (approx ) Replacement-level fertility = # children a couple must bear to replace themselves (approx ) Total fertility rate (TFR) = average # children woman has in her reproductive years (2005 TFR = 2.7) (TFR in MDCs = 1.6 : LDCs = 3.0) Total fertility rate (TFR) = average # children woman has in her reproductive years (2005 TFR = 2.7) (TFR in MDCs = 1.6 : LDCs = 3.0) Projecting global populations : 2050 projected pop. = billion Most growth (97%) expected in developing countries Projecting global populations : 2050 projected pop. = billion Most growth (97%) expected in developing countries US fertility rates - see figure 6-4, p. 98 US fertility rates - see figure 6-4, p. 98

12 World Population Projections Fig. 6-2, p. 96

13 Fig. 6-4, p. 98 US Fertility Rates ( )

14 47 years 77 years 8% 81% 15% 83% 10% 98% 2% 99% 10% 52% $15 $ Life expectancy Married women working outside the home High school graduates Homes with flush toilets Homes with electricity Living in suburbs Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) Homocides per 100,000 people Fig. 6-5, p. 99 Major Changes in US Society ( )

15 Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates *** Child labor- very important in developing countries Child labor- very important in developing countries Cost of raising and educating children - more expensive in developed countries Cost of raising and educating children - more expensive in developed countries Availability of pension systems - pensions reduce need for children to support in old age Availability of pension systems - pensions reduce need for children to support in old age Urbanization- better access to family planning services in cities Urbanization- better access to family planning services in cities Education and employment of women - TFR drops with increasing education & employment opportunities Education and employment of women - TFR drops with increasing education & employment opportunities Infant mortality rate - Directly proportional to TFR Infant mortality rate - Directly proportional to TFR Average age of marriage- Fewer children when marriage age 25 years Average age of marriage- Fewer children when marriage age 25 years Abortion - 46 million abortions yearly (20 million illegal) Abortion - 46 million abortions yearly (20 million illegal) Availability of birth control Availability of birth control Culture, religious values, and traditions Culture, religious values, and traditions

16 Extremely Effective Highly Effective Total abstinence Sterilization Vaginal ring IUD with slow-release hormones IUD plus spermicide Vaginal pouch (female condom) IUD Condom (good brand) plus spermicide Oral contraceptive 100% 99.6% 98-99% 98% 97% 95% 93% Very Effective Birth Control Methods

17 Effective Cervical cap Condom (good brand) Diaphragm plus spermicide Rhythm method (Billings, Sympto-Thermal) Vaginal sponge impreg- nated with spermicide Spermicide (foam) 89% 86% 84% 83% 82% Mostly Effective Birth Control Methods

18 Moderately Effective Unreliable Spermicide (creams, jellies, suppositories) Withdrawal Rhythm method (daily temperature readings) Condom (cheap brand) Douche Chance (no method) 75% 74% 70% 40% 10% Least Effective Birth Control Methods

19 Factors Affecting Death Rates Life expectancy : global average years = 69 Life expectancy : global average years = 69 Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of every 1,000 who die before 1st birthday ** Best single measure of a societys quality of life (reflects nutrition, health care) 46 countries have lower infant mortality rates than USA Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of every 1,000 who die before 1st birthday ** Best single measure of a societys quality of life (reflects nutrition, health care) 46 countries have lower infant mortality rates than USA Improvements: Food, medicine, nutrition, medicine, sanitation, hygiene, water supply Improvements: Food, medicine, nutrition, medicine, sanitation, hygiene, water supply

20 Immigration into the US 41% of annual population growth 41% of annual population growth Source of immigrants into the US Pre 1960: Mostly Europe Post 1960: Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%) Source of immigrants into the US Pre 1960: Mostly Europe Post 1960: Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%) Arguments to reduce immigration : 58% support Allow population to stabilize Reduce environmental impact Arguments to reduce immigration : 58% support Allow population to stabilize Reduce environmental impact Arguments for immigration Give me your hungry, your tired your poor… Tax revenues $$$ immigrants occupy menial, low-paying jobs After 2020 workers will be needed as Boomers retire Arguments for immigration Give me your hungry, your tired your poor… Tax revenues $$$ immigrants occupy menial, low-paying jobs After 2020 workers will be needed as Boomers retire

21 Fig. 6-6, p. 102 Expanding Rapidly Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia MaleFemale Prereproductive ages 0-14Reproductive ages 15-44Postreproductive ages Population Age Structures MaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemale Expanding Slowly United States Australia Canada Stable Spain Austria Greece Declining Germany Bulgaria Italy In 2005, 29% of people on planet were younger than 15 years old % % % Negative growth

22 Animation Examples of age structure interaction

23 Fig. 6-8, p. 103 Tracking the US Baby Boom Generation

24 Animation U.S. age structure interaction.

25 Effects of Population Decline 40 nations have stable or declining populations 40 nations have stable or declining populations UN predicts that pop of most develop countries will stabilize by 2050 (not USA) UN predicts that pop of most develop countries will stabilize by 2050 (not USA) Rapid declines can create severe social and economic problems Rapid declines can create severe social and economic problems Labor and social security problems Labor and social security problems Social and economic impacts of AIDS Social and economic impacts of AIDS

26 Solutions: Influencing Population Size ***Demographic transition ***Demographic transition Family planning Family planning Improve health care Improve health care Empowering women- worldwide, women account for 66% of hours worked, but receive 10% of worlds income. See stats of p.138 Empowering women- worldwide, women account for 66% of hours worked, but receive 10% of worlds income. See stats of p.138 Developing national population policies Developing national population policies Improve education, especially for women Improve education, especially for women Increase involvement of men in parenting Increase involvement of men in parenting Reduce poverty Reduce poverty Reduce unsustainable consumption Reduce unsustainable consumption

27 Fig. 6-10, p. 105 Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial LowIncreasingVery highDecreasingLowZeroNegative Birth rate Total population Death rate Growth rate over time Demographic Transition Low High Relative population size Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year)

28 Animation- Animation- Demographic transition model

29 Case Study: Hindrances to Family Planning Programs in India Poor planning of family planning programs Poor planning of family planning programs Bureaucratic inefficiency Bureaucratic inefficiency Low status of women Low status of women Extreme poverty Extreme poverty Lack of administrative and financial support Lack of administrative and financial support

30 Case Study: Family Planning in China Economic incentives - extra food, larger pensions, better housing, $$ Economic incentives - extra food, larger pensions, better housing, $$ Free medical care for participants Free medical care for participants Preferential treatment for participants - free school tuition Preferential treatment for participants - free school tuition Very coercive and intrusive - free sterilization, contraception, Very coercive and intrusive - free sterilization, contraception, Human rights violations- gender imbalance, abortions, infanticide Human rights violations- gender imbalance, abortions, infanticide Chinas Pop could peak in 2040, then decline Chinas Pop could peak in 2040, then decline

31 Percentage of world population Population Population (2025) (estimated) Illiteracy (%of adults) Population under age 15(%) Population growth rate (%) Total fertility rate Infant mortality rate Life expectancy GDP PPP per capita 17% 20% 1.1 billion 1.3 billion 1.4 billion 1.63 billion 47% 17% 36% 22% 1.6% 0.6% 3.0 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) years 71 years $2,880 $4,980 Demographic Data on India and China Percent living below $2 per day

32 Urbanization and Urban Growth Urban and rural populations Urban and rural populations Rural migration to urban areas Rural migration to urban areas Megacities and megalopolises Megacities and megalopolises Poverty and shantytowns Poverty and shantytowns Patterns of urbanization Patterns of urbanization

33 Fig. 6-11, p. 108 Los Angeles 13.3 million 14.5 million Mexico City 18.3 million 20.4 million Sao Paulo 18.3 million 21.2 million Buenos Aires 12.1 million 13.2 million New York 16.8 million 17.9 million Cairo 10.5 million 11.5 million Lagos 12.2 million 24.4 million Mumbai (Bombay) 16.5 million 22.6 million Karachi 10.4 million 16.2 million Dhaka 13.2 million 22.8 million Calcutta 13.3 million 16.7 million Jakarta 11.4 million 17.3 million Beijing 10.8 million 11.7 million Tokyo 26.5 million 27.2 million Shanghai 12.8 million 13.6 million Osaka 11.0 million Manila 10.1 million 11.5 million Major Urban Areas of the World Delhi 13.0 million 20.9 million

34 Megalopolises of Bowash and Chipitts

35 US Urbanization Initial migration to large central cities Initial migration to large central cities Later migration from large cities to suburbs Later migration from large cities to suburbs Migration from north and east to south and west Migration from north and east to south and west Recent migration back to rural areas Recent migration back to rural areas Advantages and disadvantages of US urban areas Advantages and disadvantages of US urban areas

36 Major Urban Areas of the US Fig. 6-12, p. 109

37 See Fig. 6-14, p. 110 Some Undesirable Effects of Urban Sprawl

38 Human Health and Aesthetics Contaminated drinking water and air Noise pollution Sky illumination at night Traffic congestion Weight gain Some Undesirable Effects of Urban Sprawl

39 Water Increased runoff Increased surface water and groundwater pollution Increased use of surface water and groundwater Decreased storage of surface water and groundwater Increased flooding Decreased natural sewage treatment Some Undesirable Effects of Urban Sprawl

40 SF Bay region growth animation Animation

41 Advantages of Urbanization (especially in Developed Countries) Jobs Jobs Education Education Better access to health care Better access to health care Some environmental advantages Some environmental advantages Biodiversity may be preserved in some rural areas Biodiversity may be preserved in some rural areas

42 Disadvantages of Urbanization Resource use and waste Resource use and waste Reduction in vegetation Reduction in vegetation Water supply problems and flooding Water supply problems and flooding Dont grow food Dont grow food Air, noise and water pollution Air, noise and water pollution Disease, poverty, crime and accidents Disease, poverty, crime and accidents Microclimates: Urban heat islands Microclimates: Urban heat islands

43 © 2006 Brooks/Cole - Thomson Fig. 6-15, p. 111 InputsOutputs Energy Food Water Raw materials Manufactured goods Money Information Solid wastes Waste heat Air pollutants Water pollutants Greenhouse gases Manufactured goods Noise Wealth Ideas Urban Areas as Open Systems

44 © 2006 Brooks/Cole - Thomson Fig. 6-16, p. 112 Noise Levels (in dbA) Permanent damage begins after 8-hour exposure Normal breathing Whisper Quiet rural area Quiet room Rainfall Normal conversation Vacuum cleaner Average factory Lawn mower Chain saw Rock music Thunderclap (nearby) Earphones at loud level Air raid siren Boom cars Military rifle Urban Areas as Open Systems

45 Extreme Poverty in Urban Areas Fig. 6-17, p. 113

46 Transportation and Urban Development Compact and dispersed cities Compact and dispersed cities Personal automobiles Personal automobiles Motor vehicles in the US Motor vehicles in the US Advantages and disadvantages of motor vehicles Advantages and disadvantages of motor vehicles Reduction of motor vehicle use Reduction of motor vehicle use Alternatives to motor vehicles Alternatives to motor vehicles

47 See Fig. 6-18, p. 115 AdvantagesDisadvantages Affordable Produce no pollution Quiet Require little parking space Easy to maneuver in traffic Take few resources to make Very energy efficient Provide exercise Little protection in an accident Do not protect riders from bad weather Not practical for trips longer than 8 kilometers (5 miles) Can be tiring (except for electric bicycles) Lack of secure bike parking Bicycles Trade-Offs Tradeoffs of Bicycles

48 Fig. 6-19, p. 116 Advantages Disadvantages More energy efficient than cars Produce less air pollution than cars Require less land than roads and parking areas for cars Cause fewer injuries and deaths than cars Reduce car congestion in cities Expensive to build and maintain Cost effective only along a densely populated narrow corridor Commit riders to Transportation schedules Can cause noise and vibration for nearby residents Mass Transit Rail Trade-Offs Tradeoffs of Mass Transit Rail

49 Fig. 6-20, p. 116 AdvantagesDisadvantages More flexible than rail system Can be rerouted as needed Cost less to develop and maintain than heavy-rail system Can greatly reduce car use and pollution Can lose money because they need low fares to attract riders Often get caught in traffic unless operating in express lanes Commit riders to transportation schedules Noisy Buses Trade-Offs Tradeoffs of Buses

50 Fig. 6-21, p. 116 Advantages Disadvantages Can reduce travel by car or plane Ideal for trips of 200–1,000 kilometers (120–620 miles) Much more energy efficient per rider over the same distance than a car or plane Expensive to run and maintain Must operate along heavily used routes to be profitable Cause noise and vibration for nearby residents Rapid Rail Trade-Offs Tradeoffs of Rapid Rail

51 Making Urban Areas More Livable and Sustainable Land-use planning (Smart Growth) Land-use planning (Smart Growth) Walkability Walkability Environmental sustainability Environmental sustainability Smart transportation Smart transportation Ecocities Ecocities Reduce pollution and waste Reduce pollution and waste Protect biodiversity Protect biodiversity Curitiba, Brazil Curitiba, Brazil

52 Limits and Regulations Limit building permits Urban growth boundaries Green belts around cities Public review of new dvlmt Zoning Encourage mixed use Concentrate development along mass transportation routes Promote high-density cluster housing developments Planning Ecological land-use planning Environmental impact analysis Integrated regional planning State and national planning Protection Preserve existing open space Buy new open space Buy development rights that prohibit certain types of development on land parcels Taxes Tax land, not buildings Tax land on value of actual use (such as forest and agriculture) instead of highest value as developed land Tax Breaks For owners agreeing legally to not allow certain types of development (conservation easements) For cleaning up and developing abandoned urban sites (brownfields) Revitalization and New Growth Revitalize existing towns and cities Build well-planned new towns and villages within cities Smart Growth Tools Solutions Fig. 6-17, p. 117 Smart Growth

53 Fig. 6-23, p. 118 WorkersInterdistrictDirectFeederExpress City center Bus System of Curitiba, Brazil City center


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