1. The Human Population and Urbanization
Chapter 6

2. Key Concepts Factors affecting population size
Human population problems
Managing population problems
Urban growth
Resource and environmental problems in urban areas
Transportation in urban areas
Achieving sustainable cities

3. Is the World Overpopulated?
billion people by 2050
Limited resources
Environmental impacts (I=PAT)
Some say no- Longer lifespans
Economic growth- stimulated by pop. increase
Religion and population growth
Freedom and population growth
Poverty- 20% people without basic necessities
Ecological footprint
Fig. 6-1, p. 94

4. Is the World Overpopulated?
Click for Current US and World Population
Fig. 6-1, p. 94

5. Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Population change equation
Population change = (Births +Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
Crude birth rate = # live births per 1,000 people per year
Crude death rate = # deaths per 1,000 people per year
Global population growth = 1.2% = 214,000 people per day (97% in developing countries)
Rule of 70: 70/ percentage growth rate = doubling time in years
Doubling time: 70/1.2 = 58 years

6. Average Crude Birth and Death Rates
Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
World 21
World’s birth rate = 2.1% 9
World’s death rate = 0.9%
World’s pop. Growth rate = 1.2%
All developed
countries 11 10
All developing
countries 24 8
Developing
countries
(w/o China) 27 9
Crude Growth Rate ÷ 10 = % Growth Rate

7. Average Crude Birth and Death Rates
Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
Africa 38 14
Latin
America 22 6
Asia 20 7 18
Oceania 7
United
States 14 8
North
America 14 8 10
Europe 12

8. Current and projected population sizes by region.
Animation
Current and projected population sizes by region.

9. How Did the Human Population Increase So Rapidly?
Human intelligence and adaptation- enabled expansion to diverse habitats & new climate zones
Agriculture - feeds more people per unit area
Medical technologies and sanitation- controls infectious disease

10. Describing Population Changes
Replacement-level fertility= # children a couple must bear to replace themselves (approx )
Total fertility rate (TFR)= average # children woman has in her reproductive years (2005 TFR = 2.7) (TFR in MDCs = 1.6 : LDCs = 3.0)
Projecting global populations: projected pop. = billion Most growth (97%) expected in developing countries
US fertility rates- see figure 6-4, p. 98

11. World Population Projections
Fig. 6-2, p. 96

12. US Fertility Rates ( )
Fig. 6-4, p. 98

13. Major Changes in US Society (1900-2000)
47 years
Life expectancy
77 years 8%
Married women working
outside the home
81%
15%
High school graduates
83%
10%
Homes with flush toilets
98% 2%
Homes with electricity
99%
10%
Living in suburbs
52%
1900 $3
Hourly manufacturing job
wage (adjusted for inflation)
2000
$15
1.2
Homocides per
100,000 people
5.8
Fig. 6-5, p. 99

14. Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates ***
Child labor- very important in developing countries
Cost of raising and educating children - more expensive in developed countries
Availability of pension systems - pensions reduce need for children to support in old age
Urbanization- better access to family planning services in cities
Education and employment of women - TFR drops with increasing education & employment opportunities
Infant mortality rate - Directly proportional to TFR
Average age of marriage- Fewer children when marriage age ≥ 25 years
Abortion- 46 million abortions yearly (20 million illegal)
Availability of birth control
Culture, religious values, and traditions

15. Very Effective Birth Control Methods
Extremely Effective
Total abstinence
100%
Sterilization
99.6%
Vaginal ring
98-99%
Highly Effective
IUD with slow-release
hormones
98%
IUD plus spermicide
98%
Vaginal pouch
(“female condom”)
97%
IUD
95%
Condom (good brand)
plus spermicide
95%
Oral contraceptive
93%

16. Mostly Effective Birth Control Methods
Cervical cap
89%
Condom (good brand)
86%
Diaphragm plus
spermicide
84%
Rhythm method (Billings,
Sympto-Thermal)
84%
Vaginal sponge impreg-
nated with spermicide
83%
Spermicide (foam)
82%

17. Least Effective Birth Control Methods
Moderately Effective
Spermicide (creams,
jellies, suppositories)
75%
Withdrawal
74%
Rhythm method (daily
temperature readings)
74%
Condom (cheap brand)
70%
Unreliable
Douche
40%
Chance (no method)
10%

18. Factors Affecting Death Rates
Life expectancy: global average years = 69
Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of every 1,000 who die before 1st birthday ** Best single measure of a society’s quality of life (reflects nutrition, health care) 46 countries have lower infant mortality rates than USA
Improvements: Food, medicine, nutrition, medicine, sanitation, hygiene, water supply

19. Immigration into the US
41% of annual population growth
Source of immigrants into the US Pre 1960: Mostly Europe Post 1960: Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%)
Arguments to reduce immigration: 58% support • Allow population to stabilize • Reduce environmental impact
Arguments for immigration • “Give me your hungry, your tired your poor…’ • Tax revenues $$$ • immigrants occupy menial, low-paying jobs • After 2020 workers will be needed as Boomers retire

20. Population Age Structures% % %
Negative growth
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Expanding Rapidly
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Expanding Slowly
United States
Australia
Canada
Stable
Spain
Austria
Greece
Declining
Germany
Bulgaria
Italy
Prereproductive ages 0-14
Reproductive ages 15-44
Postreproductive ages
In 2005, 29% of people on planet were younger than 15 years old
Fig. 6-6, p. 102

21. Examples of age structure interaction
Animation
Examples of age structure interaction

22. Tracking the US Baby Boom Generation
Fig. 6-8, p. 103

23. U.S. age structure interaction.
Animation
U.S. age structure interaction.

24. Effects of Population Decline
40 nations have stable or declining populations
UN predicts that pop of most develop countries will stabilize by 2050 (not USA)
Rapid declines can create severe social and economic problems
Labor and social security problems
Social and economic impacts of AIDS

25. Solutions: Influencing Population Size
***Demographic transition
Family planning
Improve health care
Empowering women- worldwide, women account for 66% of hours worked, but receive 10% of world’s income. See stats of p.138
Developing national population policies
Improve education, especially for women
Increase involvement of men in parenting
Reduce poverty
Reduce unsustainable consumption

26. Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Preindustrial
Stage 2
Transitional
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
High 80 70 60
Birth rate 50
Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year)
Relative population size 40 30
Death rate 20 10
Total population
Low
Low
Increasing
Very high
Decreasing
Low
Zero
Negative
Growth rate over time
Fig. 6-10, p. 105

27. Animation- Demographic transition model

28. Case Study: Hindrances to Family Planning Programs in India
Poor planning of family planning programs
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of administrative and financial support

29. Case Study: Family Planning in China
Economic incentives- extra food, larger pensions, better housing, $$
Free medical care for participants
Preferential treatment for participants- free school tuition
Very coercive and intrusive- free sterilization, contraception,
Human rights violations- gender imbalance, abortions, infanticide
China’s Pop could peak in 2040, then decline

30. Demographic Data on India and China
Percentage
of world
population
17%
20%
Population
1.1 billion
1.3 billion
Population (2025)
(estimated)
1.4 billion
1.63 billion
Illiteracy (%of adults)
47%
17%
Population under age 15(%)
36%
22%
Population growth rate (%)
1.6%
0.6%
3.0 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)
Total fertility rate
1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate 64 27
62 years
Life expectancy
71 years
Percent living below $2 per day 81 47
GDP PPP per capita
$2,880
$4,980

31. Urbanization and Urban Growth
Urban and rural populations
Rural migration to urban areas
Megacities and megalopolises
Poverty and shantytowns
Patterns of urbanization

32. Major Urban Areas of the World
Karachi
10.4 million
16.2 million
Dhaka
13.2 million
22.8 million
Beijing
10.8 million
11.7 million
Los Angeles
13.3 million
14.5 million
Cairo
10.5 million
11.5 million
Tokyo
26.5 million
27.2 million
New York
16.8 million
17.9 million
Mumbai
(Bombay)
16.5 million
22.6 million
Calcutta
13.3 million
16.7 million
Mexico City
18.3 million
20.4 million
Osaka
11.0 million
Lagos
12.2 million
24.4 million
Sao Paulo
18.3 million
21.2 million
Delhi
13.0 million
20.9 million
Manila
10.1 million
11.5 million
Jakarta
11.4 million
17.3 million
Shanghai
12.8 million
13.6 million
Buenos Aires
12.1 million
13.2 million
Fig. 6-11, p. 108

33. Megalopolises of Bowash and Chipitts

34. US Urbanization Initial migration to large central cities
Later migration from large cities to suburbs
Migration from north and east to south and west
Recent migration back to rural areas
Advantages and disadvantages of US urban areas

35. Major Urban Areas of the US
Fig. 6-12, p. 109

36. Some Undesirable Effects of Urban Sprawl
See Fig. 6-14, p. 110

37. Some Undesirable Effects of Urban Sprawl
Human Health
and Aesthetics
Contaminated drinking water
and air
Noise pollution
Sky illumination at night
Traffic congestion
Weight gain

38. Some Undesirable Effects of Urban Sprawl
Water
Increased runoff
Increased surface water and
groundwater pollution
Increased use of surface water
and groundwater
Decreased storage of surface
water and groundwater
Increased flooding
Decreased natural sewage
treatment

39. Animation
SF Bay region growth animation

40. Advantages of Urbanization (especially in Developed Countries)
Jobs
Education
Better access to health care
Some environmental advantages
Biodiversity may be preserved in some rural areas

41. Disadvantages of Urbanization
Resource use and waste
Reduction in vegetation
Water supply problems and flooding
Don’t grow food
Air, noise and water pollution
Disease, poverty, crime and accidents
Microclimates: Urban heat islands

42. Urban Areas as Open Systems
© 2006 Brooks/Cole - Thomson
Inputs
Outputs
Energy
Solid wastes
Waste heat
Food
Air pollutants
Water
Water pollutants
Raw
materials
Greenhouse gases
Manufactured
goods
Manufactured goods
Noise
Money
Wealth
Information
Ideas
Fig. 6-15, p. 111

43. Urban Areas as Open Systems
© 2006 Brooks/Cole - Thomson
Permanent damage
begins after 8-hour
exposure
Noise Levels (in dbA) 85 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Normal
breathing
Quiet
rural area
Rainfall
Vacuum
cleaner
Lawn
mower
Rock music
Earphones
at loud level
Boom
cars
Whisper
Quiet
room
Normal
conversation
Average
factory
Chain
saw
Thunderclap
(nearby)
Air raid
siren
Military
rifle
Fig. 6-16, p. 112

44. Extreme Poverty in Urban Areas
Fig. 6-17, p. 113

45. Transportation and Urban Development
Compact and dispersed cities
Personal automobiles
Motor vehicles in the US
Advantages and disadvantages of motor vehicles
Reduction of motor vehicle use
Alternatives to motor vehicles

46. Tradeoffs of Bicycles See Fig. 6-18, p. 115 Trade-Offs Bicycles
Advantages
Disadvantages
Affordable
Produce no
pollution
Quiet
Require little
parking space
Easy to
maneuver in
traffic
Take few
resources to
make
Very energy
efficient
Provide exercise
Little protection
in an accident
Do not protect
riders from
bad weather
Not practical for
trips longer than
8 kilometers
(5 miles)
Can be tiring
(except for electric
bicycles)
Lack of secure bike
parking
See Fig. 6-18, p. 115

47. Tradeoffs of Mass Transit Rail
Advantages
Disadvantages
More energy
efficient than cars
Produce less air
pollution than cars
Require less
land than roads
and parking
areas for cars
Cause fewer
injuries and
deaths than cars
Reduce car
congestion in
cities
Expensive to
build and
maintain
Cost effective
only along
a densely
populated
narrow corridor
Commit riders to
Transportation
schedules
Can cause noise
and vibration
for nearby
residents
Fig. 6-19, p. 116

48. Tradeoffs of Buses Trade-Offs Buses Advantages Disadvantages
More flexible
than rail system
Can be rerouted
as needed
Cost less to
develop and
maintain than
heavy-rail
system
Can greatly
reduce car use
and pollution
Can lose money
because they
need low fares
to attract riders
Often get caught
in traffic unless
operating in
express lanes
Commit riders
to transportation
schedules
Noisy
Fig. 6-20, p. 116

49. Tradeoffs of Rapid Rail
Advantages
Disadvantages
Can reduce travel by car or plane
Ideal for trips of 200–1,000
kilometers (120–620 miles)
Much more energy efficient per rider over the same distance than a car or plane
Expensive to run and maintain
Must operate along heavily used
routes to be profitable
Cause noise and vibration for nearby residents
Fig. 6-21, p. 116

50. Making Urban Areas More Livable and Sustainable
Land-use planning (Smart Growth)
Walkability
Environmental sustainability
Smart transportation
Ecocities
Reduce pollution and waste
Protect biodiversity
Curitiba, Brazil

51. Smart Growth Fig. 6-17, p. 117 Solutions Limits and Regulations
Smart Growth Tools
Limits and Regulations
Protection
Limit building permits
Urban growth boundaries
Green belts around cities
Public review of new dvlmt
Preserve existing open space
Buy new open space
Buy development rights that prohibit certain types of development on land parcels
Taxes
Tax land, not buildings
Tax land on value of actual use (such as forest and agriculture) instead of highest value as developed land
Zoning
Encourage mixed use
Concentrate development along mass transportation routes
Promote high-density cluster housing developments
Tax Breaks
For owners agreeing legally to not allow certain types of development (conservation easements)
For cleaning up and developing abandoned urban sites (brownfields)
Planning
Ecological land-use planning
Environmental impact analysis
Integrated regional planning
State and national planning
Revitalization and New Growth
Revitalize existing towns and cities
Build well-planned new towns and villages
within cities
Fig. 6-17, p. 117

52. Bus System of Curitiba, Brazil
City center
City
center
Express
Interdistrict
Direct
Feeder
Workers
Fig. 6-23, p. 118