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© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved ROI Analysis of WiFi Offloading
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved To offload or not to offload… Operators of mobile cellular data networks (3G and 4G) face an uphill battle against increasing data usage and declining ARPUs ROI on macro network expansions scrutinized by shareholders iPhones, iPads, Android smartphones, netbooks are all tapping the mobile network for access anywhere, anytime Majority of access occurs when the user is stationary in high traffic density areas (home, office, coffee shop etc.) 2 …the bad news is…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved 3 Comscore found that more than one third (37.2 percent) of U.S. digital traffic coming from mobile phones occurred via a WiFi connection. by Karl Bode Thursday 27- Oct 2011Karl Bode Phil Marshall head of Tolaga Research. estimates that about 20 percent of iPhone traffic on AT&T Mobility's network is landing on the public WiFi network, and it's likely that another 60 percent is landing on home WiFi networks now that the operator has instituted tiered data plans, he said. When you have WiFi, you do more, and that effect is pretty hard to measure," Steve Glapa, Rukus. "But nonetheless, I would say network traffic on PCCW's network would be 20 percent higher than if it didn't have WiFi. In some of the dense traffic areas of Hong Kong, some 80 percent of data traffic is traveling over WiFi, he said …the good news is WiFi offload already occurs naturally…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved 65% of mobile data traffic already offloaded Users are in Wi-Fi coverage 63 percent of the time during the day/ 65 percent of traffic can be offloaded to Wi-Fi under typical usage conditions using on-the-spot offload Greater offload performance can be achieved if the user is prepared to accept delayed offload (e.g., sync your videos or photos when you get home) This means that out of the 7GB usage per month, 4.5GB would travel by Wi-Fi and 2.5GB by cellular. Therefore a 2GB-3GB per month cellular data plan is probably enough for most users. 4 …a fair assumption according to Light Reading would be… Observation: A cellular service provider already benefits from WiFi Offload without making any investment in deploying a WiFi Network of its own.
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved How do we quantify the offload dilemma? How do we analyze the impact of a 3G/4G Service Providers Own WiFi Offload Deployment on its overall Business Case? Does it make economic sense to deploy a WiFi Offload Network? What is the Business Case for MNO WiFi Offload? What is the ROI of an MNO WiFi Offload? 5 Answer: Develop a WiROI Model to answer these questions …in-depth analysis required to make informed decision…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Using a holistic approach Study the Impact of WiFi Offload on an Urban LTE Deployment Deploy an LTE network for Coverage Deploy a WiFi Network for Capacity Surgically place the WiFi APs in high traffic areas Calculate the TCO (CapEx and OpEx) for the WiFi Offload Network Compare to the TCO of providing Capacity by deploying LTE Cells for Capacity Understand the key deployment parameters which lead to positive economic impact of WiFi off load Calculate and Compare ROI metrics such as NPV, IRR 6 …the wireless 20|20 process…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Real time simulation and analysis Allow the simulation of public wifi offload to vary the % of the natural offload Allow the simulation model to vary the % of the Urban Area covered by WiFi Allow the simulation model to vary the Density of WiFi APs per sq km Vary WiFi Vendor Equipment Performance and Price (Cell Radius of APs, cost of APs) Vary the WiFi Backhaul Cost Vary the operating cost of the WiFi network Vary the total data capacity a user consumes on a monthly basis 7 …WiROI capabilities… Objective: Discover under what conditions WiFi Offload pays off
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Major Assumptions One Time Costs (CapEx) Cost of WiFi Access Point Cost of WiFi AP installation Cost of Backhaul Equipment Cost of Backhaul Equipment Installation and provisioning WiFi Core Network Equipment (Servers, Portals, etc.) Recurring Costs (OpEx) Monthly WiFi and Backhaul Site Rental Monthly WiFi and Backhaul Maintenance Monthly Traffic Backhaul Cost 8 …CAPEX and OPEX drivers… Objective: Discover under what conditions WiFi Offload pays off
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Cover Areas of High Traffic Density 9 …customized analysis of traffic density…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved More APs per Sq Km provide better offload 10 …and WiFi AP Density…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Coverage vs. Traffic Offload 11 Hotspot coverage of high traffic density areas versus contiguous coverage yields better offload percentage Customized formulas for different market conditions …coverage vs. traffic offload… Coverage
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved WiROI Research Analysis Case Study 1 – LTE Deployment on New York City 12
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Baseline: New York City 13 NYC 8 million POPS LTE using 1800Mhz 10Mhz Channel Coverage 789 sq km 2,194,000 subscribers 216 Coverage Sites 1,879 Capacity Sites Cumulative CAPEX $514M Cumulative OPEX $3,006M TCO $3,520M Assumption: LTE deployment in NYC Activity: Simulate TCO impact of implementing MNO WiFi Offload Network Identify: The scenario for optimal financial return Analyze: Understand main drivers of the results …large dense urban city…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Assumptions: CapEx & OpEx CapEx AssumptionsWiFi APLTE Macro Cell Cost of 3-Sector BTS$45,000 Cost of WiFi Access Point$500 New Site Acquisition$600$150,000 Collocation$50,000 Backhaul$300$5,000 OpEx AssumptionsWiFi APLTE Macro Cell Monthly Site Rental$20$1,000 Site Maintenance /month $10$ …WiFi vs. LTE assumptions…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Analysis: TCO impact of WiFi Offload 15 TCO savings of about $123m already with only 20% coverage and density of 24 APs per sq km. Optimal TCO savings of $253m is achieved with 100% coverage and 42 APs per sq km. The number of macro LTE capacity sites reduced by 1,447 and replaced by 33,138 WiFi access points. …WiFi offload results… TCO Savings $123m TCO Savings $253m Observation: Optimal Financial Return might not be Optimal Commercial Proposition Optimal Commercial Proposition?
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Analysis: Optimal TCO Results 16 LTE OnlyWiFi OffloadDelta % / $ Total CapEx$514m$284m44.7% / $230m Total OpEx$3,006m$2,983m0.90% / $23m TCO$3,520m$3,267m7.20% / $253m LTE OnlyWiFi OffloadDelta % / $ Cumulative Free Cash Flow $6,680$6,9674.3% / $287m …New York results…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved WiROI Research Analysis Case Study 2 – LTE Deployment in San Diego, USA 17
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Baseline: San Diego 18 San Diego 1.07 million POPS LTE using 1800Mhz 10Mhz Channel Coverage 250 sq km 206,330 subscribers 69 Coverage Sites 206 Capacity Sites Cumulative CapEx $69M Cumulative OpEx $396M TCO $465M Assumption: LTE deployment in San Diego Activity: Simulate TCO impact of implementing MNO WiFi Offload Network Identify: The scenario for optimal financial return Analyze: Understand main drivers of the results …midsize urban city…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Analysis: TCO impact of WiFi Offload 19 TCO savings of about $10m already with only 20% coverage and density of 24 APs per sq km. Optimal TCO savings of $16m is achieved with 40% coverage coverage and 24 APs per sq km. At 40% the number of macro LTE capacity sites reduced by 100 and replaced by 2,400 WiFi access points. …WiFi offload results… TCO Savings $10m TCO Savings $16m Observation: Beyond 80% coverage you start to see diminishing returns
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Analysis: Optimal TCO Results 20 LTE OnlyWiFi OffloadDelta % / $ Total CapEx$69m$55m20.3% / $14m Total OpEx$396m$394m0.01% / $2m TCO$465m$449m3.40% / $16m LTE OnlyWiFi OffloadDelta % / $ Cumulative Free Cash Flow $869$8882.2% / $19m …San Diego results…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved Conclusions & Recommendations In New York, a dense urban environment with high traffic profile, MNO WiFi Offload is optimal at 100% coverage In San Diego, a urban environment, with high traffic profile, MNO offload is optimal at 40% with diminishing return beyond 80% MNO WiFi offload makes an compelling business case under the right circumstances Main driver is OpEx, especially the WiFi site rental and backhaul costs as well as the assumed growth of the traffic demand on the 3G/4G network. OpEx less than $40 per month a highly attractive solution OpEx exceed $100-$150 per month, it becomes challenging 21 Recommendation: Create a customized WiROI Tool for your market to drive informed decisions. Contact us at …large vs. midsize city deployment…
© 2012 Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved WiROI Tool Demo 22 Test drive the WiROI Tool by register online at to gain access to our online demo or contact us for a WebEx Demo. USA - Western Region Randall C. Schwartz Armenia Office Levon Mkrtchyan Spain Office Azat Sakanyan Tonse Telecom #446, 2nd Cross, 9th Main, HAL 2nd Stage Bangalore India Phone: USA - Eastern Region Haig A. Sarkissian Peru Office Magnus Johansson Media Relations Robin L. Bestel …test drive our WiROI 4G WiFi Offloading Tool online…
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