1. Opportunities to Leapfrog High-GWP HFCs when Phasing out HCFCs
Alexander Hillbrand, NRDC
10/10/2016

2. Getting Underway
Looking forward to the HFC phasedown, it makes sense to start the phasedown in sectors that are transitioning out of HCFCs through the HPMP process.
‘Leapfrogging’ alongside the HPMPs will be less expensive for companies redesigning equipment, less expensive for the MLF, and will achieve environmental benefits more quickly.
This process is already underway worldwide, primarily in foams.

3. Available, Lower-GWP Alternatives to HCFCs Ready for Inclusion in HPMPs
Sectors
NIK & Lower-GWP Alternatives
Foams
- Polyurethane
hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO-1233zd
- Extruded polystyrene
CO2, HFO-1234ze
Stationary AC
- Room AC
hydrocarbons, HFC-32
- Mini-splits
- Chillers
ammonia, HFO-1233zd, HFO-1234ze
Refrigeration
- Supermarkets & storage
ammonia, CO2, R-407A/C/F, R-448A, R-449A
- Comm Ref/Freezers
hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO-1234yf
- Transport
R-452A

4. Example of Progress: India
Foams
Nearly all polyurethane foam applications have transitioned to hydrocarbon and other NIK solutions, with a very limited portion moving into HFC-245fa.
The same is expected in Stage II HPMP that will address extruded polystyrene and other additional foams
Room AC:
Estimates place the current market at 2% hydrocarbon, 17% HFC-32, 11% R-410A, and the remaining 70% in R-22.
Commercial Refrigeration
Market is still largely in R-22, but officials suggest that R-404A, GWP 4000, will not be widely used as it has been by A2 parties. Alternatives include R-407C and others.

5. Example of Progress: India
India’s expected HFC leapfrogging during the HPMP process will lead to a 48% decrease in projected GWP-weighted HFC consumption in Forecasted use is 91 MMT CO2-eq in 2030.

6. Conclusions
Market and business forces, ambitious environmental policies, and MLF ExCom decisions are starting to help A5 parties phase in low-GWP alternatives in place of HCFCs through the HPMP process
An HFC amendment will make leapfrogging much more technically feasible and cost effective, suggesting that HFC phasedown activities should initially focus on those sectors that are involved in HPMP transitions.
Buys MAC more time before reductions must be made.