1. Describing the Unobserved: Methodological Challenges in Empirical Studies on Human Trafficking Tyldum and Brunovskis, in Data and Research on Human Trafficking (2000)

2. 2 Empirical Research on Human Trafficking (HT) As international awareness of problem of HT has risen, there have been increased efforts to describe problem, including estimates of scope, description of trends and victim characteristics Unsuitable methodologies have been employed, e.g., making inferences on basis of limited data Inadequate data collection has real-world consequences  policies and interventions will be ineffective - both overestimates and underestimates can have negative consequences, e.g., misallocating resources

3. 3 Relevant populations are hidden Prostitutes, traffickers, survivors, illegal immigrants are all “hard-to-reach” hidden population is a group of individuals whose size and boundaries are unknown, for whom no sampling frame exists

4. 4 Relevant policy areas are highly politicized Prostitution, labor market protection, immigration laws are extremely politicized Key actors with access to critical information have their own policy agendas

5. 5 Determining Who to Count Conceptual identification/conceptualization –Based on UN Protocol Practical identification/operationalization –There are still ambiguities in the way the definition is commonly operationalized –Demands clarification of the interpretation of the UN Protocol, in particular on aspects such as exploitation of the prostitution of others, and exploitation of a position of vulnerability

6. 6 Trafficking in persons, as defined in UN Protocol (2000) [activity] Trafficking in persons shall mean the recruitment, transportation, transfer, harboring or receipt of persons, [means] by means of threat or use of force of other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or of a position of vulnerability or of the giving or receiving of payments or benefits to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person, [intent] for the purpose of exploitation. Exploitation shall include, at a minimum, the exploitation of the prostitution of others or other forms of sexual exploitation, forced labor or services, slavery or practices similar to slavery, servitude or the removal of organs” (UN 2000)

7. 7 How to count victims? It is difficult to distinguish traits simply through observation, e.g., –whether person has been manipulated or lured –extent of exploitation Information necessary for classification is most easily obtained through survey data

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9. 9 Populations and subpopulations Victims of trafficking are subpopulations of persons migrating and persons exploited Victims known to NGOs and trafficking cases registered by law enforcement agencies (LEAs) are subpopulations of the overall population of victims

10. 10 Obstacles to valid inferences from subpopulations to populations Ratio of assisted victims to total victims is unknown Biases in sample of assisted victims unknown Both (ratio & biases) are likely to vary between regions and over time, making inferences to whole population difficult

11. 11 Social factors influencing victim counts and victim profiles: LEAs Ability of LEA to recognize trafficking –Functionality of law enforcement apparatus, resources, identification tools, etc. –Focus of attention (e.g., national groups thought to be at high-risk or age groups that are more easily observed are more likely to be counted and over- represented) Behavior of victims in contact with LEA –Groups vary in terms of personal resources (e.g., trust in police, language skills, access to information) and those groups with “better” resources are more likely to be counted and over-represented)

12. 12 Social factors influencing victim counts and victim profiles: NGOs Ability of NGO to recognize trafficking –resources, identification tools, etc. –focus of attention may be on particular ethnic or religious groups or geographical areas based on organizational mandate Behavior of victims in contact with NGO –Resources, e.g., awareness of assistance, accessibility of assistance –Self-identification as victim “worthy” of assistance