1. Technical Characteristics of Energy Technologies Stephen Stretton 6 th March 2009

2. Contents Introduction Capital costs Capital cost escalation & uncertainty Learning rates Other parameters & Conclusions

3. Introduction This presentation describes the updating of the Technical Characteristics of Energy Technologies (TCET) table as part of the Energy Technologies subModel (ETM). There was an updating of both the technologies and the characteristics of those technologies The model date is fixed to 2000 and the data is measured in US 2000$. Learning rates are included.

4. Technological Classification The technologies focus on electricity and related options. The technological classification was updated and improved e.g. by removing the ‘wind with storage’ options and creating separate storage technologies (batteries, pumped storage). This gives more options and more flexibility

5. Electricity & Related Technologies 1 Coal - IGCC15 Concentrated PV 2 Coal - PC16 Concentrated Solar Thermal Power 3 Oil17 Tidal 4 Gas - CCGT18 Wave 5 Gas - CHP19 Geothermal 6 Gas - Fuel Cell20 Coal with CCS Retrofit 7 Nuclear - LWR21 Biomass with CCS (Oxyfuel) 8 Nuclear - advanced22 Gas with CCS (Post-comb) 9 Hydro23 Coal with CCS (Pre-comb) 10 Biomass24 Hydrogen 11 Biomass CHP25 Air Capture 12 Wind onshore26 Pumped Storage 13 Wind offshore27 Batteries 14 Solar PV28 Transmission

6. Capital Cost - Data Sources IEA national survey data: “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity” (2005) Multiple studies used for updating UK Markal Data US NEMS Model EU Strategic Energy Technology Plan

7. Capital Costs – Study Data

8. Clean Coal - Now

9. Clean Coal - Future

10. Dirty Coal

11. Gas

12. Nuclear

13. Biomass

14. Issues Major cost escalation for between 2003 and 2007, makes indexation difficult. See Marshall & Swift & Chemical Engineering (CE) Indices Most cost figures do not take into account this escalation Debate as to whether this escalation will be sustained.

16. Cost Escalation Particularly Strong for Nuclear Energy

17. Capital Cost - Conclusions IEA / NEMS data accurate representation of long term trends However near-term cost escalation needs to be considered UK Markal data might be close but for wrong reasons? (ie. UK data escalated) Also much information about smaller tech

18. Capital Costs Conclusions- With Uncertainty

19. Learning Curves (Capital Cost) Current Costs Long Run Costs

20. Learning Curve (LF adjusted), capital costs only Current Costs

21. Other Parameters We also investigated the other parameters. Where data was missing, an estimation was based on limited data and/or the old parameters We also created a methodology for These are described in the TCET spreadsheet.

22. Levelised Electricity Cost (1)

23. Levelised Electricity Cost (2)

24. Conclusions Both the technologies and the parameters have been updated. Various functions for straightforward estimation of Levelised cost and geographical and time variability have also been created. This is implemented in a spreadsheet TCET.xls.