1. APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group Meeting Twentieth Meeting 4-6 November 2002 Seoul, Korea Yonghun JUNG, Ph.D Vice President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, Tokyo Area of Cooperation between EGNRET and APERC

2. APERC’s Research Activities related to NRE –Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (1998) –Sustainable Electricity Supply Options for the APEC Region (2001) –Making the Clean Development Mechanisms Work (2001) –Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002 (2002) –Alternative Development Scenarios for Electricity and Transport to 2020 (2002)

3. Total Primary Energy Supply in APEC (1980-2020) TPES growing at an annual rate of 2.1 percent (1999-2020) (Source) APERC (2002) Oil 2.1% p.a. Coal 2.1% p.a. Natural Gas 2.6 % p.a. Hydro 2.7 % p.a. Nuclear 1.7 % p.a. NRE 1.1 % p.a.

4. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook NRE by Sector and Region (1999 and 2020) (Source) APERC (2002) Biomass use in Residential sector takes the largest share. China, South East Asia are the largest user for biomass, while North America is for New Energy.

5. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook Power Sector: Fuel Consumption in MTOE (Source) APERC (2002) NRE is growing fast, but the share is projected to be minuscule.

6. Combustible Renewables and Waste in China (Source) IEA (2001), “Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries”

7. Combustible Renewables and Waste in Philippines (Source) IEA (2001), “Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries” For residential sector the trends decreased sharply form 1995 onwards, due to a large amount of Biomass being reallocated to Non-specified Other and Non-specified Industry?

8. Data Requirement for NRE Marketability of New Energy Source –Cost of unit production ($/kWh) –Potential cost reduction Case Studies of NRE –Project Information CDM, GEF Policies –Renewable Portfolio Standards

9. Renewables Estimated Cost Reduction by 2020 Current costCost reductions by 2020 Biomass and wastes High. Cost-effective in CHP applications with low fuel cost. Cofiring relatively low cost retrofit option. 10 - 15% Wind onshore Relatively low for onshore. Lowest compared to other renewables. Up to 15 - 25% Wind offshoreHigh.20 - 30% Solar PV Very high. Cost-effective only in niche markets. 30 - 50% Solar thermalVery high.30% + GeothermalHigh.10% Hydro Relatively low for large hydro. Higher for mini-hydro. 10% (Source) IEA (2001), “World Energy Outlook – 2001 Insights”