1. 1 Deep uncertainty in energy policy: introduction to basic concepts Resilience and Risk management Energy System Structure Adaptive scenario backcasting

2. 2 Addressing risk 2 basic ways to respond to risk: Gamble – bet nothing negative happens Gamble – bet nothing negative happens Ameliorate – become resilient to risk Ameliorate – become resilient to risk 2 basic kinds of resilience: Suppressive - prevent/ remove risk effects {-: cost, brittleness, disabling} Suppressive - prevent/ remove risk effects {-: cost, brittleness, disabling} Adaptive – adapt to preserve functionality {-: cost, +: suppleness, enabling} Adaptive – adapt to preserve functionality {-: cost, +: suppleness, enabling} – Both include, and require, appropriate organisation

3. 3 4 key propositions In a dynamic world primary sustainability = preservation of adaptive resilience So sustainable energy infrastructure supports synergistic ecological + societal adaptive resilience Resilience requires integrated adaptability across plant, sector, network and ecological levels Technological development has shown an important trend toward universal adaptability

4. 4 Scenario backcasting: CCS Coal Large Thermal FC Natural Gas GE Transport Stationary Energy CA Electricity EM Hydrogen Fossil Oil Natural Gas Coal Transport Stationary Energy Electricity ICE TodayTomorrow

5. 5 Forecasting/backcasting: schematic method

6. 6 Greater power of backcasting options Backcasting is a more powerful tool than forecasting for capturing policy options because its off-trend, longer term, time-reversed perspective: allows consideration of intermediary actions that break trends, allows consideration of intermediary actions that break trends, opens to decision many variables that are effectively fixed in the short term, and opens to decision many variables that are effectively fixed in the short term, and allows for self-reinforcement along pathways (e.g. technological learning) and for inter-pathway synergies (e.g. solar boosting of coal-fired generation). allows for self-reinforcement along pathways (e.g. technological learning) and for inter-pathway synergies (e.g. solar boosting of coal-fired generation).

7. 7 Human Energy System Flow

8. 8 Energy Media Diamond

9. 9 Options in transport design Hydrogen Hydrocarbons Compressed Air (Liquid, Gas) (Electro-mechanical Drive) (Gas expansion Motor) Kinetic Energy Electricity Transport Figure 3: Transport Technology Design Structure On Board Storage Hydrocarbons (Solid) Continuous Delivery (Tank) Single Storage On Board Storage (Tank) Split Storage (Battery) Single Storage (Tender) Split Storage Fixed Grid or On-board capture (PV cell) (Aerofoil) On-board Capture Electricity Air Motion Hydrogen Hydrocarbons Compressed Air (Liquid, Gas) [No Storage] Continuous Delivery

10. 10 Options for transport fuels Biomass [Bio-engineered Photosynthesis] Thermal Hydrogen Mechanical (Wind, Tide, Hydro) [Photolysis] Photovoltaic Secondary [Emerging] Primary Transformation Tertiary Legend Electro-mechanical Drive Gas expansion Motor Kinetic Energy Electricity [Compressed Air] Transport Non-Carbon Thermal ([Geothermal], Nuclear, [Solar Thermal]) Figure 4: Transport Services Energy Pathways Hydrocarbons / Non- carbon Hydrogen Compound [Electrolysis] [Fuel Cell] [Battery Storage] [Micro- Turbine] [Biofuel Synthesis] Fossil Hydrocarbons [Carbon Sequestration] Mobility/ Access

11. 11 Options for stationary energy

12. 12 Scenario Exercise Land & Water BM fuel Biomass Fossil Oil Hydrogen Natural Gas Coal Wind GETransport Stationary Energy Electricity ICE Thermal Local Thermal Current Energy Pathway Structure

13. 13 Scenario exercise BM sugar Battery Storage Biosequestration Land & Water Agricultural Photosynthesis CCS BM oil BM wood Industrial Photosynthesis Fossil Oil DieselAlcoholHydrogen Natural GasCoal Photolysis Wind & PV etc. Solar Thermal Electro- Magnetic Gas Expansion Transport StationaryE nergy Compressed Air Electricity Fuel Cell ICE Local Thermal Legend : Fossil (Carbon Neutral with CSS), Carbon Neutral, Carbon Free.

14. 14 Scenario exercise Desalination Land & Water CCS Biomass Fossil Oil Hydrogen Natural GasCoal Photolysis Wind & PV Thermal EMGETransport Stationary Energy CA Electricity FCICE BEV Local Thermal Solar Thermal Geothermal Nuclear Biosequestration

15. 15 Energy: Decision Structure

16. 16 Satisfactory End-states Portfolio type I and type II errors

17. 17 Adaptive strategy construction Adaptive strategies are constructed by developing a portfolio of actual technologies (+ supporting financial, skill, regulatory etc. arrangements), that keeps open the real options of pursuing each scenario within the suite of scenarios, that represent the widest feasible class of the most satisfactory scenarios for achieving all of a selected range of physically plausible and societally desirable end-states. Given finite resources, the parameters ‘class width’, ‘scenario satisfaction level’ and ‘end-state range’ will need to be judiciously traded-off against one another.