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Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis: A Macroeconomic risk Tomas Freitas University Technology of Sydney (UTS) 23 November 2013 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis.

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Presentation on theme: "Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis: A Macroeconomic risk Tomas Freitas University Technology of Sydney (UTS) 23 November 2013 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis."— Presentation transcript:

1 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis: A Macroeconomic risk Tomas Freitas University Technology of Sydney (UTS) 23 November 2013 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

2 Outline Country & Economy Performance Transparency and Accountability Theoretical Framework Economy Growth ( the elements of GDP) Conclusion Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

3 ItemweightSource Population1.2 MillionNSD (2011) Life Expectancy62.5 yearHDR (2011) Child Mortality under five year old 56 Per 1000 live birth HDR (2011) Access Clean Water35.7%HDR (2011) Access to Education (Primary School) 90%MoF (2012) Growth National Income2,704 Million (USD)IMF (2010) GDP Per capita$805 (USD)HDR (2011) Real GDP Growth9.5%ADB (2010) Urban Unemployment42% MoF (2012) Rural Unemployment80%MoF (2012) Inflation12.4%MoF (2011) BOP (Current Account)1,717 Million USDBCTL (2010) Savings+10 Billion USDBCTL (2012) Country & Economy Performance Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

4 IndexPeriodRankScore Revenue Transparency201012/4070.5 Corruption Perceptions2011 143/1832.4/10 Judicial Independence2010-201286/1423.3/7 Rule of Law201010%-1.2 Open Budget2010Minimal34 Voice & Accountability201049%0.02 Control of Corruption201018%0.95 Human Development Report 2011147/187 (Low) 0.495 Press Freedom2011-201286/17930.00 Timor-Leste Transparency and Accountability performance Source: Transparency International http://www.transparency.org/country#TLShttp://www.transparency.org/country#TLS Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

5 Theoretical Framework Macroeconomic – Income Approach GDP: The total income earned by the household in a nation during a year Total Income = Rent + Wages + Interest + profit – Expenditures Approach GDP: the total amount spent on goods and services in a nation by households, firms, government and foreigners GDP = C + I + G + X n ) Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

6 GDP Growth Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

7 Fiscal Year Consumption Based on Consumer Price Index in Million US Dollar Investment In Capital Asset (Million US Dollar) Gov Exp in Health, Education, Agriculture, Infrastructure & Social Security in Million US Dollar ExportsImportsTrade Balance 2004-05107.5-52.3/79.0105,645146,108-40,454 2005-06107.5-46.1/112.043,451109,127-65,676 2006-07120.0-142.9/328.660,685100,802-40,117 Transition134.1-72.9/116.419,179206,133-186,954 2008145.6-208.7/483.949,207268,584-219,377 2009146.4-355.1/603.634,512295,096-260,584 2010-54458.8/758.7--- 2011--365/1,306.0--- 2012--423.9/1,674.1--- Elements Of The GDP Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis Sources: Ministry of Finance & National Statistic Directorate

8 Elements of Consumption Source: National Statistic Directorate Data compiled from April 2011-April 2012 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

9 Government Expenditures Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis Sources: Ministry of Finance

10 Revenues contribution to State Budget Source: Ministry of Finance Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

11 Merchandise Import of Major commodities CommodityValue in US Dollar CommodityValue in US Dollar Vehicles (Cars & Motorbikes) 58,486,000Construction materials4,075,138 Rice35,069,475Tractors for Agricultures3,186,171 Fuels30,715,395IT & Computers2,972,124 Electrical Machinery (Heavy Fuel Generators) 25,198,000Household furniture's 655,676 Aerials & Aerial reflectors, Boilers, Machinery 22,770,000Medicines, Antibiotics & equipments 524,934 Alcohol & Tobacco7,456,999Vegetables, Fruits & Cooking oil 85,766 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis Source: National Statistic Directorate

12 Exports Commodity CommodityQuantity (in Kg) Value (in USD) Coffee9,941,9638,290,612 Re ExportsHeavy Containers 26,021,000 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis Source: National Statistic Directorate (2012)

13 Issuesstatus Manatuto in % Dili in % Ermera in % Manufahi in % Food Consumption Less than adequate32.027.771.328.9 Housing Less than adequate27.723.162.645.4 Clothing Less than adequate16.021.231.821.2 Health Care Less than adequate19.215.156.222.5 Children education Less than adequate22.228.454.420.2 Household income Less than adequate69.056.286.869.1 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

14 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis Circular Flow

15 Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis Timor-Leste Circular Flow

16 Conclusion Timor-Leste economy is high risk because: – There are no factors of production. – There are no alternative commodities to export except coffee. – The private sector relies on government projects. – Government revenue depends on oil. – There is no legal protection for local food production. Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis

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