1. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 1 Research of the relation between the hourly inbound capacity at Schiphol airport and the number of KLM transfer passengers at risk of loosing their connection Dragana Mijatovic Air Traffic Control the Netherlands (LVNL) Marleen Meert KLM Royal Dutch Airlines Khalid El-Bachraoui Javier Wanga Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Airspace Engineering

2. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 2 Content Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

3. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 3 Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment KLM carries 11 million passengers KLM network consists of 7 waves – maximize number of high-quality connections (short transfer time) > 100.000 KLM flights per year arrive at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport 70% of the arriving passengers are in transfer

4. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 4 Definitions inbound outbound Sub-MCT passengers = KLM transfer passengers at risk of loosing their connection Minimum Connecting Time ( Schiphol EUR-EUR: 40 min. Other: 50 min. ) SBA MCT Arrival delay = Actual arrival time(ABA) - Schedule arrival time (SBA) Arrival punctuality = # flights arrived on time / total # of flights 1 minute late is considered a delayed flight Assumption: A/C depart at SBD time ABA Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment SBD 1 SBD 2 SBD 3 SBD 4 SBD 5 ? ? ? % of KLM sub-MCT passengers = ------------------------------------------------------------------- sub-MCT passengers ??? all transfer passengers

5. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 5 Definitions Capacity forecast = available landing capacity per hour in next 6 hours Demand = number of planned landings at Schiphol airport (a day before) Delta capacity = capacity forecast - demand Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

6. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 6 Delays influenced by the LVNL (Dutch ATC)

7. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 7 Real life Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

8. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 8 Methods and Results Contributions to arrival punctuality Percentage of sub-MCT pax Arrival punctuality (with regard to timetable) LVNL- contribution to arrival punctuality Runway combination ATFCM regulations/restrictions Tactical flight managment (vectoring, holding) Taxi times Capacity Non - LVNL- contribution to arrival punctuality relation/percentage relation percentage Gate allocation (AAS) Taxi-way/Runway Maintenance & Availability (AAS) Delays by KLM Management/Restrictions on departure airport and en-route relation Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

9. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 9 Nominal Flight Time Nominal flight time from FIR boundary till runway: median value (set of data) Nominal taxi time from runway till gate: average value FIR delay = actual (flight + taxi times) – nominal ones Arrival delay (total delay) = ABA-SBA FIR Delay Nominal Taxi Times Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

10. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 10 LVNL- and non-LVNL contribution to arrival punctuality Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment KLM flight Delay No-delay LVNL - contribution Non - LVNL - contribution Combined contribution

11. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 11 LVNL and non-LVNL contribution to arrival punctuality

12. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 12 LVNL and non-LVNL contribution to arrival punctuality LVNL-contrib. increases in winter for ~ 5% due to the weather (ATFCM restrictions) Combined contrib. contains LVNL-contrib. and it is large Non-LVNL- contrib. seems not to be season dependant 6 banks system 7 banks system Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

13. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 13 Percentage of sub-MCT pax Arrival punctuality (with regard to timetable) LVNL- contribution to arrival punctuality Runway combination ATFCM regulations/restrictions Tactical flight managment (vectoring, holding) Taxi times Capacity (hourly inbound capacity) Non - LVNL- contribution to arrival punctuality relation Gate allocation (AAS) Taxi-way/Runway Maintenance & Availability (AAS) Delays by KLM Management/Restrictions on departure airport and en-route relation capacity forecast delta capacity Relations between the hourly inbound capacity, arrival punctuality and percentage of the sub- MCT passengers Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

14. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 14 (c) (d) Scope: Arrival Bank 2 (demand close to decl. capacity and snowballing effect is omitted) 2 landing RWYs in use KLM EUR inbound flights only connecting to outbound flights of any carrier Relations between the hourly inbound capacity, arrival punctuality and percentage of the sub- MCT passengers Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

15. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 15 Delta capacity vs. capacity forecast Delta cap. = capacity forecast – demand Decl. cap. = 68 arr/h Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

16. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 16 Percentage of KLM sub-MCT pax vs. capacity forecast Above critical capacity – percentage of sub-MCT pax is low Number of flights below critical capacity for: Winter ~ 10%; summer ~ 5% - not enough for reliable fits One point – one day of the season / bank 2 Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

17. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 17 Percentage of KLM sub-MCT pax vs. delta capacity Above critical delta capacity – percentage of sub-MCT pax is low and show no significant spread. Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

18. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 18 Arrival punctuality vs. delta capacity Scattered due to more factors than LVNL ones that influence the arrival punct. If demand < capacity forecast, high probability for high arrival punctuality. Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

19. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 19 Percentage of KLM sub-MCT pax vs. arrival punctuality Strong relation High arrival punct.- low percentage of sub – MCT pax Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment

20. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 20 Conclusions and Outlook Conclusions Identified all LVNL- and non-LVNL contributions to arrival punctuality Pure LVNL – contribution increases for 5 % in the winter months for delayed flights due to the weather Relations between the capacity, arrival punctuality, percentage of KLM sub-MCT pax are found Critical capacity is determined above which the percentage of KLM sub-MCT pax is low and does not change with the change in capacity Increase in the arrival punctuality causes decrease in the percentage of KLM sub-MCT pax Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment Outlook The results will be used for the follow-up research to: Find relations between the sustainability of hourly capacity and percentage of KLM sub-MCT pax Research the possibility of shortening the scheduled flight time by reducing the LVNL-induced delays

21. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Amsterdam Airport Schiphol D. Mijatovic, LVNL, paper Nr. 31 21 Acknowledgment L. Hoogerbrugge, H. Erens, S. Lentze, E. Westerveld, Y. Obbens, F. Bloem, F. Dijkstra and all other colleagues involved in the discussions R. Frijns, R. Rooij, J. Goedhart, W. van Miltenburg, B. van der Weyden, J. Kerckhoff, P. Cornelisse, Y. de Haan, T. Dortmans, L. Oudkerk B. Gimberg, A. Geebelen G. Gardner More info: LVNL: Dragana Mijatovic-Jovanovic e-mail: d.jovanovic@lvnl.nl KLM: Marleen Meert e-mail: marleen.meert@klm.com Introduction Definitions Methods and Results Conclusions and Outlook Acknowledgment Thank you for you attention !