1. 24.06.2016 Seite 1 Seite 1 24.06.2016 Seite 1 Renewable Energy & Efficiency Energy open the pathway to affordable sustainable energy Presentation by Dr. Paul H. Suding, GTZ IREC Cairo 01 December 2009

2. 24.06.2016 Seite 2 Seite 2 Content  Introduction  Egypt’s past energy policy phases  Business as usual implications and challneges  RE & EE key are elements of sustainable energy policy  Renewable energy and affordability; no conflict of objectives 01/12 /2009 Suding IREC

3. 24.06.2016 Seite 3 Seite 3 Egypt’s past energy policy phases  1970s until the mid 1990s:  Electrification highly successful  Build-up of oil production for domestic & export markets  1990 until 2005:  Substitution of solid fuel with oil product (LPG)  Build up of natural gas production for internal market  Declining oil production  Since 2005:  Petroleum sector battles to maintain net-export status  Massive natural gas expansion to substitute petroleum products in internal market and export  Incorporation of renewables and efficiency 01/12 /2009 Suding IREC

4. 24.06.2016 Seite 4 Seite 401/12 /2009 Suding IREC 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Million TOE Egypt BAU Scenario Primary Energy Consumption and Energy Production OilNatural GasNuclearWind SolarHidroDemand

5. 24.06.2016 Seite 5 Seite 501/12 /2009 Suding IREC

6. 24.06.2016 Seite 6 Seite 601/12 /2009 Suding IREC 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 20072010201320162019202220252028 kT oe Sc. Inertial: Fuels imports Non energyGasolineLPGDiesel Oil

7. 24.06.2016 Seite 7 Seite 7 Challenges of Egypt energy policy  Social dimension: Maintain affordability of access to modern energy  Economic dimension:  Maintain high level of security of supply  Reduce risks from volatility of international markets  Support modernization (competitiveness) of industry & develop energy resources for industrial and labor development  Reduce financial drain & increase benefit from oil & gas  Natural Resources dimension:  Maintain minimum reserves level of natural gas  Environment and Climate dimension  Maintain low level of environment and climate impact 01/12 /2009 Suding IREC

8. 24.06.2016 Seite 8 Seite 8 Renewable Energy is the key factor in next phase  in power sector, reduce natural gas requirements and GHG emissions, increase power export potential,  Scaled up wind power already on the way  Scale up grid connected solar power (CSP), plus: Provide power and heat for water desalination  PV and hybrids in isolated grids  Biomass and biogas - from residues, waste, sewage with cogeneration  Reduce electricity demand in demand sectors  Multiplication of decentralized PV  Massive introduction of solar water heating & cooling  (& EE & transport policy & regional integration) 01/12 /2009 Suding IREC

9. 24.06.2016 Seite 9 Seite 901/12 /2009 Suding IREC 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 GWh BAU Scenario: Egypt Public electricity generation HydroSolarNuclearWindCCSteamGas

10. 24.06.2016 Seite 10 Seite 1001/12 /2009 Suding IREC

11. 24.06.2016 Seite 11 Seite 11 Renewable Energy development and affordability Not a conflict of objectives, but a conflict of instruments  as long as all petroleum products and natural gas are priced far below value, no level playing field for RE (RE appear too costly) in power generation and other  Way out: change the instruments: low energy prices are restricted to basic energy (and public transport) access, and the incentives for efficiency and the disincentives for misappropriation, smuggling, and wasteful consumption 01/12 /2009 Suding IREC

12. 24.06.2016 Seite 12 Seite 12 New policy on social sustainability: Ideas  Focus support on the needed  Provide every Egyptian with a legal title on a share of the national oil and gas reserves: create a equilibration and social solidarity fund fund from the income; this fund is also property of every Egyptian  Annual dividend and surplus in fund be used for targeted subsidy, coupons for energy or cash  Elt tariffs similar to now, strong social element, but avoid subsidy of the wealthy  Adjust LPG prices and emit coupon for the needed  Adjust natural gas prices, similar scheme as electricity 01/12 /2009 Suding IREC

13. 24.06.2016 Seite 13 Seite 13 THANK YOU  For more on RE in Egypt and JCEE please see our website www.jcee-eg.net 01/12 /2009 Suding IREC

14. 24.06.2016 Seite 14 Seite 1401/12 /2009 Suding IREC Egyptian German High Level Joint Committee for Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Environmental Protection Postal Address c/o German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) GmbH 4d, El Gezirah – Street, 11211 Zamalek, Cairo, Egypt Office Address: JCEE Secretariat within in NREA compound Dr. Ibrahim Aboulnaga Street (ext of Abbas Elakad Street), Nasr City, Cairo Tel. +20 2 2270 2699, Fax +20 2 2270 2793 secretariat@jcee-eg.net www.jcee-eg.net