1. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. 5751 North Kolb Road, Suite 40108 Tucson, Arizona 85750-3773 The Potential Health Benefits of the Clean Power Plan: An Assessment Using the EPA COBRA Model John A. “Skip” Laitner In Conversation with Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) February 29, 2016 *The Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Model... *

2. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. ● Energy choices, together with the inefficient use of energy, all affect peoples’ health, social, and economic wellbeing. Yet, policymakers too often consider only the cost of those investments—which is just part of the story. All too often, the full array of benefits are overlooked. ● Both citizens, and state and local policymakers, can use COBRA to provide a reasonable estimate of the economic value of health improvements associated with energy efficiency, clean energy, and renewable energy projects to better tell the whole story of the nation’s energy future. ● Citizens and policymakers can also use COBRA to create easy-to-read-maps of the local impacts that emerge from changing the means producing and consuming energy. 1 Energy Choices Matter Electricity from Fossil Fuels

3. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. 2 Growth of the U.S. Economy: With Economic Well-being Limited by the Currently Anemic 14% Energy (in)Efficiency By no means unique to the United States, there is a similar pattern within the OECD and developing nations as well. Source: John A. “Skip” Laitner (2015) And inefficiency also leads to unnecessary air pollution...

4. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. 3 Energy Choices Matter Electricity from Fossil Fuels

5. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. 4

6. Exploring Health Impacts from Implementation of the Clean Power Plan 5 ● On August 3, President Obama and EPA announced the Clean Power Plan (CPP) – a historic and important step in reducing carbon pollution from power plants. ● When the CPP is fully in place in 2030, carbon pollution from the power sector will be 32% below 2005 levels – or 870 million tons. That is equal to the annual emissions from more than 166 million cars, or 70% of the nation’s passenger vehicles. ● In effect, using an array of efficiency and clean technologies, the CPP will reduce average conventional generation by 30% by 2030. ● According to EPA, the CPP has public health and climate benefits worth an estimated $34 to $54 billion per year in 2030, far outweighing the suggested costs of $8.4 billion. We can use COBRA to help tell that story....

7. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. Case Study: Impacts of a 30% Reduction in Conventional U.S. Generation by 2030 6 MetricAvoided Health Impacts in the U.S. Total Health Impacts$25 to $56 billion per year Adult Mortality2,900 to 6,600 premature deaths per year Upper Respiratory Symptoms77,000 cases per year Lost Work Days361,000 per year Minor Restricted Activity Days2.2 million person-days per year Moreover, we can explore these impacts at the state and county levels.

8. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. Mapping Results... 30% Coal Reduction in Pima/Cochise Counties 7 Pima County Cochise County $6 - $100,000 $100,000 - $500,000 $500,000 - $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $5,000,000 Tucson

9. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. Some Final Thoughts... 8 ● For someone who has reasonable experience in using web- based analytical tools, and a working familiarity of the Clean Power Plan, downloading and running COBRA to produce first results might require 4-6 hours of effort. ● At the same time, there are any number of college and university students who might willingly volunteer and/or intern with some organization that might give them the means to better learn about COBRA and CPP and help PSR or others tell the very important health impacts story. ● In short, the effective use of EPA’s COBRA model can help “bring it home.”

10. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. 9 https://www3.epa.gov/statelocalclimate/resources/cobra.html http://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan/fact-sheet-overview-clean-power-plan

11. Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. For Further Information John A. “Skip” Laitner Principal, Resource Economist and Consultant Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) Center for Naval Analysis, Institute for Public Research President Association for Environmental Studies and Sciences (AESS) Based in Tucson, Arizona Cell: +1 571 332 94 34 Email: EconSkip@gmail.com Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates ::.. 10