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Sunshine Coast Destination Limited June 12 Quarter Report Industry Summary August 2012 Pacific Tower 737 Burwood Road Hawthorn Melbourne 3122 Tel : 61.

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Presentation on theme: "Sunshine Coast Destination Limited June 12 Quarter Report Industry Summary August 2012 Pacific Tower 737 Burwood Road Hawthorn Melbourne 3122 Tel : 61."— Presentation transcript:

1 Sunshine Coast Destination Limited June 12 Quarter Report Industry Summary August 2012 Pacific Tower 737 Burwood Road Hawthorn Melbourne 3122 Tel : 61 03 98300612 1 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary

2 Section 1 : Introduction 1.0 Introduction The purpose of this report is to provide a relevant, timely and concise report on tourism trends on the Sunshine Coast for industry stakeholders. The scope of the report includes the following :- Section 1: Introduction. Section 2 : The External Environment and Tourism Trends. Section 3 : Sunshine Coast Overview. Section 4 : Domestic Market Trends Section 5 : International Market Trends. Section 6 : Demand Outlook Section 7 : Summary. Note 1 : Data used in the charts is trended data unless stated otherwise. Trending refers to a 12 month moving average. Note 2 : Tourism Research Australia’s Sunshine Coast definition is used throughout the report. Tourism Queensland in their reports use a definition that includes Kilkivan in their definition so Tourism Queensland’s numbers vary slightly from this report. 2 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary

3 2.1 Australian GDP and Consumer Confidence The Australian economy is growing again and is close to growing at trend rates in March 2012. Consumer (and Business) Confidence is well up from the GFC induced lows of 2008 and consumer confidence is holding with the cuts in interest rates. However, consumers are more cautious and have increased their savings substantially. Section 2 : External Environment and Tourism Trends 3 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary

4 2.2 Inbound and outbound travel (12mma) With the high $AUD, Australians are departing for overseas holidays although growth has slowed due to economic uncertainty and an increase in costs of airfares Inbound numbers are now static, but the key markets for the Sunshine Coast are weak:- New Zealand arrivals (+0.4%), with growth slowing. Other markets have seen a decline including Germany (-4.1%), UK (-6.3%) and the USA (-1.7%). Source : ABS 4 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 2 : External Environment and Tourism Trends

5 2.3 Sunshine Coast Visitors Total Inbound has trended up over the long term but has seen a decrease caused by global financial turmoil. The domestic overnight visitors are showing continued signs of improvement. Day trippers are the largest visitor segment and continue to increase. Source :NVS / IVS Section 3 : Sunshine Coast Overview 5 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary

6 4.1 Overview - Australian and Qld. Domestic Market Section 4 : Domestic Market Trends 6 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary The domestic tourism market shows signs of improvement (year to March 12) :- Total visitors increased by 5%, with the biggest increase in VFR (up 9%) and business up 10%. Holiday visitors are up 2%. Overall spending increased by 10% due to a huge increase in Business spending (+27%) and VFR (+13%). Holiday spending was flat. Queensland out performed Australia overall (+10%), year to March 12. The overall holiday market was up 3%, Business up 8% and VFR rising to 24%. Overall spending increased substantially (+18%), with holiday spending up 7%, VFR 34% and Business 36%. The spike in expenditure is the result of recovery of the tourism sector after the natural disasters in the corresponding quarter last year.

7 4.2 Domestic Visitor Spending Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS Domestic Overnight SC Spending $ % Change p.a. Market Share of Qld. (%) Mar-09 1,719,0002.914.6 Mar-10 1,724,0000.314.7 Mar-11 1,646,000-4.515.3 Mar-12 1,698,0003.212.7 Domestic overnight spend increased by +3.2%. Overnight visitor spending has increased to $1,698M. Sunshine Coast’s market share of spending decreased due to the big surge in business spending in Queensland. Sunshine Coast has a small (but growing) Business component. Source :NVS 7 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market

8 4.3 Total Visitors and Visitor Nights Domestic Visitor Nights (‘000) - LHS Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000) - RHS Domestic Overnight SC Visitors % Change p.a. Domestic Nights % Change p.a. Mar 083,136,00012.913,760,00029.3 Mar 092,750,000-12.210,791,000-21.6 Mar 102,529,000-8.111,288,0004.6 Mar 112,709,0007.110,122,000-10.3 Mar 122,812,0003.810,702,0005.7 Visitor numbers grew to +3.8% compared to 2010 with an increase in domestic nights (+5.7%). Visitor numbers and nights are picking up from the GFC induced lows in 2008/09.. Source :NVS 8 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market

9 4.4 Domestic Market Share (%) Share of Visitor Nights (%) Share of Visitors (%) SC Share of QLD Visitors (%) SC Share of QLD nights (%) Gold Coast Share of QLD Visitors (%) Whitsun days Share of QLD Visitors (%) Tropical North Qld. Share of QLD Visitors (%) Mar 0816.917.319.92.88.6 Mar 0916.815.520.13.09.1 Mar 1015.915.820.52.99.7 Mar 1116.514.821.12.97.8 Mar 1215.614.118.33.28.8 Sunshine Coast’s share of nights and visitors softened in the year to March 2012. Share of visitors peaked in 2005 when the domestic economy was particularly strong, then held quite well during the GFC. Source :NVS 9 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market

10 4.5 Source Markets of Visitors NSW QLD NSWVic Rest of Australia Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a. Mar 082,243,00010.7449,00010.3312,00032.8132,00021.1 Mar 092,021,000-9.9402,000-10.5222,000-28.8107,000-18.9 Mar 101,836,000-9.2336,000-16.4238,0007.2119,00011.2 Mar 111,963,0006.9377,00012.2233,000-2.1136,00014.3 Mar 122,110,0007.5337,000-10.6269,00015.596,000-29.4 VIC. Rest of Aus. The Queensland market is showing signs of recovery after the GFC and floods :- Intrastate make up the biggest component of the domestic overnight market. The NSW market is soft, while VIC is recovering. The rest of Australia has seen a decrease. Source :NVS 10 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market

11 4.6 Visitor Numbers - Sub Regional Northern Central Southern Hinterland Cooloola 11 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Source : NVS All regions are showing some improvement over the last few years. The Northern region is close to record levels. The Central region is well below the 2005 peak, but is improving. The Southern and Hinterland regions have been trending up. Cooloola has been improving in the last few years. Note : NVS historical data has been reweighted by Tourism Research Australia – for full details see their website and they have added more sub-regional locations which have impacted on historical data as well Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market

12 4.7 Sunshine Coast Preference Sunshine CoastGold CoastWhitsundays Tropical North Qld. P reference Share (%)* Mar 082,388,00031.143.423.725.9 Mar 092,437,00031.144.422.724.5 Mar 102,329,00030.043.623.723.9 Mar 112,195,00028.143.221.725.2 Mar 122,260,00028.941.721.225.0 Preference measures indicate where Australian consumers would like to holiday at least one night or more over the next 2 years. It is an important measure of the desirability of a destination and is collected via a survey conducted by Roy Morgan Research Pty Ltd. The Sunshine Coast has 2.260 million people who would like to have a holiday on the Sunshine Coast, a share of 28.9%. This is higher than the Whitsundays and Tropical North QLD. Preference has been falling for years but it has turned the corner. The Gold Coast has the highest Preference which has remained fairly stable, although share has dropped in the last year. Share of Qld. Preference Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study 12 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 4 : Domestic Overnight Market

13 5.1 Overview - International Market Trends Section 5: International Market Trends 13 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary The International holiday market to Australia improved slightly (year to March 12) :- The overall market is up 1%, holiday is still down (-2.0%). The NZ market is up 1%, USA and Europe down 1%. Spending increased by 4%. Queensland is softening :- The poor weather and renewed global uncertainty impacted the QLD holiday market and visitation fell by -7%. The NZ holiday market was especially weak and is down 7%. Europe is well down in the holiday market (-12%). Total spending by International visitors increased (+3%). NOTE: Asian sample is too small to show sub-regional results.

14 5.2 International Visitor Spending Share of Qld. Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS Inter- national Overnight SC Spending $* % Change p.a. (Spending) Market Share of Qld. spending (%) Mar 09192,000-5.04.9 Mar 10240,00025.06.1 Mar 11239,000-0.46.5 Mar 12209,000-12.65.5 The International market continues to be a solid market for the Sunshine Coast, with spending and share of spending trending up since 2008. The last twelve months have seen a softening as the European debt crisis has impacted on discretionary holiday travel (the core International market for the Sunshine Coast):- This continues to represent opportunities for the Sunshine Coast as the world economy recovers. Source : IVS, *note includes package expenditure 14 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 5: International Market Trends

15 5.3 International Visitor Markets to Sunshine Coast Share of Spending (%) - RHS Visitor Spending ($M) - LHS The Sunshine Coast’s No. 1 inbound market is New Zealand (31.3% of inbound) :- The New Zealand market has been weak since the GFC but has seen improvement in March 2012. Other markets are softening due to the global debt concerns. Asia has increased. NZUKGermany Other Europe Asia Visitors% % % % % Mar 0893,389-4.358,200-8.121,27122.352,30315.917,821-4.5 Mar 0978,951-15.561,9686.524,27414.151,879-0.821,61821.3 Mar 1077,608-1.765,7606.122,946-5.553,4493.020,143-6.8 Mar 1183,5897.755,273-15.923,6042.951,179-4.217,321-14.0 Mar 1274,812-10.545,413-17.820,397-13.647,923-6.417,134-1.1 UK Other Europe New Zealand GermanyAsia Source : IVS 15 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 5: International Market Trends

16 5.13 Visitor Numbers - Sub Regional The Central, Southern and Cooloola regions are all showing signs of improvement. The Northern sub-region has been trending up, although the renewed global uncertainty has softened visitor numbers recently. NorthernCooloola Visitors % p.a. Visitors % p.a. 138,485-8.650,35433.8 145,4235.047,129-6.4 139,989-3.757,14821.3 146,1164.450,519-11.6 120,663-17.445,602-9.7 Source : IVS SouthernHinterlandCentral Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a.Visitors% p.a. Mar 0839,97150.714,8895.367,592-4.3 Mar 0931,974-20.018,71025.772,9067.9 Mar 1031,554-1.316,178-13.573,9961.5 Mar 1127,598-12.512,702-21.565,812-11.1 Mar 1224,907-9.813,6427.464,754-1.6 Northern Central Southern Cooloola Hinterland 16 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 5: International Market Trends

17 6.1 Sunshine Coast Total Domestic Overnight Visitors and Nights Domestic visitors are forecast to grow over the 10 years, compound annual growth is very modest 1.2% to 2022. But neither nights nor visitors are expected to reach the 2003 peak (when the Queensland economy boomed), thanks to a high $A making overseas trips more affordable. However, forecasts are still for a recovery from the GFC induced troughs. Source : EMDA Model 2012 17 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary F F Section 6 : Demand Outlook

18 International visitors numbers are expected to grow again as the world economy improves but the high exchange rate will be dampener. Visitors forecast to grow by 1.2% compound to 2022. Nights are forecast to continue to grow, although moderately. Source : EMDA Model 2012 18 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary 7.5 Sunshine Coast International Overnight Visitors and Nights FF Section 6 : Demand Outlook

19 7.1 Key Point Summary The Australian economy continues to grow but there is renewed anxiety due to the Euro debt situation. Consumers are still cautious and are saving more. The Mining sector remains the standout growth sector. Despite this economic uncertainty the domestic holiday market has improved in Queensland. Against this weak domestic back drop Sunshine Coast tourism has performed well, although not as well as Benchmark tourism regions :- Spending by domestic overnight visitors to the Sunshine Coast increased by +3.2% Visitor numbers are up compared to last year (+3.8%) and nights are up as well (+5.7%). There are now clear signs that Preference to holiday on the Sunshine Coast is improving after years of decline. The International market to Australia and Queensland has been very weak with holiday spending and visitation down, mainly due to renewed concerns around the global financial system and the high Australian dollar. Against this weak International market, the Sunshine Coast has also softened. The Sunshine Coast has increased tourism spending with an overall growth rate of 1.2%. Section 7 : Summary 19 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary

20 7.2 Data Sources This report uses a number of data sources. Roy Morgan Research Single Source (March 12). A annual sample of 51,000 Australians Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data (June 2012). An annual sample of 51,000 Australians. International Visitor Survey (March 12). An annual sample of 40,000 visitors aged over 15 conducted at departure lounges at airports. Domestic Visitor Survey (March 12). An annual sample of 120,000 Australians aged over the age of 15. Australian Bureau of Statistics - Tourist Accommodation (Dec. 2011). A survey by the ABS of accommodation establishments of 15 or more rooms sourced through AAA tourism Pty Ltd and other sources. Australian Bureau of Statistics – Arrivals / Departures data (April 2012). Data obtained from immigration cards. 20 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary Section 7 : Summary

21 Disclaimer While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the data in this report, EMDA has not audited the data sources and therefore does not accept any responsibility in relation to financial and/or decisions based on this information. Ownership of all Intellectual Property (modelling methods, EMDA Positioning Maps resides with EMDA). 21 June 12 Quarterly Report Industry Summary


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