1. © Crown copyright Met Office Together Rory Campbell - RE09 Tim Donovan - CFOA Autumn Conference

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate change and IRMP Evidence Projections Response IRMP & CIRF Agenda

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate changing - evidence

4. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate Change Observations

5. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate change facts The climate is changing. Globally the average temperature has risen by more than 0.7 °C over the last 100 years. © Crown copyright Met Office

6. Global average temperature

7. © Crown copyright Met Office CO2 Concentrations

8. © Crown copyright Met Office Possible causes of climate change Long term changes in Earth’s orbit Variations in solar output Changes in volcanic activity Human (Anthropogenic factors)

9. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate changing - projections

10. © Crown copyright Met Office The greenhouse effect

11. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate models improvements

12. © Crown copyright Met Office The future Scenarios prepared for UKCP09 summerwinter % UK temperature change UK precipitation change summerwinter

13. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate changing - impacts

14. © Crown copyright Met Office UK impacts

15. © Crown copyright Met Office European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) 2003 2040s 2060s Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C

16. © Crown copyright Met Office UK impacts Heatwaves: Summer 2003

17. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate changing - adaptation

18. © Crown copyright Met Office Mitigation and adaptation Mitigation involves taking actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to enhance sinks aimed at reducing the extent of climate change. This is in distinction to adaptation which involves taking action to minimise the effects of unavoidable climate change.

19. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate change impacts Bangladesh 1970 Cyclone Bhola: 500,000 people killed

20. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate change impacts Bangladesh 2007 Cyclone Sidr: 3,300 people killed

21. © Crown copyright Met Office Coping range Vulnerability Time Climate variable Planning time horizon Future Implementation of adaptation Decision to adapt Lag Critical threshold PresentPast New coping range New critical threshold Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation Reproduced courtesy of UK Climate Impacts Programme

22. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate changing - IRMP & CIRF

23. © Crown copyright Met Office 2006 CLG Report The 2006 Communities and Local Government’s report, ‘Effects of Climate Change on Fire and Rescue Services in the UK’, recommends that: ‘monitoring of climate change research should be continued and links should be developed with climate change research organisations’. At the time of the report it was considered that there was: ‘currently not enough specific information available to ensure that, if any significant decisions were made based on climate change information, they would be the correct ones’ “This report recommends that the UK Fire and Rescue Services begin to plan for climate change, and to have an awareness of climate change when decisions are being made.

24. © Crown copyright Met Office Impact of CC on FRS Increased frequency of hot summers will lead to an increase in the number and severity of grassland and forest fires. Dry summers may lead to water shortages. Water shortages during summer are likely to impact on FRS in both training and fire fighting. Increased winter rainfall and higher sea levels will lead to an increase in the frequency of flooding events during winter. Measures underway include improved flood defences, new pumping equipment and innovative appliance design

25. © Crown copyright Met Office Relationship between Temperature and Fire “For a 1°C increase in summer temperatures, the Central England Temperature regression equations indicate an increase in the number of outdoor fires of between 24,000 and 40,000 per year for England and Wales and, for a 2°C increase, between 47,000 and 79,000. When these results are expressed as percentages, the rise in the number of secondary outdoor fires due to a 1°C summer temperature increase would be between 17-28% whilst a 2°C temperature change would lead to a 34-56% increase. Although these figures may appear unrealistically large, it should be noted that the increase in secondary fires in 1995 (+3.5°C), relative to the 1994 figure was 54% (+113,611 fires).”

26. © Crown copyright Met Office Time Variance of Fires

27. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate Impact & Risk Assessment Framework (CIRF)

28. © Crown copyright Met Office Tasks aims: Step 1 - Requirements. Step 2 - To explore how available data sets can meet the key requirements. Step 3 - To assess the current risk to WMFS due to the current weather and climate Step 4 - To assess in detail how the key risks identified in step 1 are likely to change in the future Step 5 - To work with WMFS to explore potential adaptation options associated with the key risks. Step 6 - communicate the project results and outcomes Step 7 - To review that the assessment has met the requirements of WMFS, and identify future steps to be taken Climate Impacts & Risk Framework

29. © Crown copyright Met Office STEP 2 – SCOPING Aim: To explore how available data sets can meet the key requirements. Outcome: WMFS stated their highest priority risks Flooding Secondary fires Relevant incident data identified 0.5M incidents (5000 flooding). Relevant weather and climate observations identified.

30. © Crown copyright Met Office Ward population density ranges ~ 20 – 65 /hectare Service Area Map

31. © Crown copyright Met Office Limited number of days with very great demand – capacity planning issues WMFS – anticipate majority are pluvial events WMFS - flooding overview

32. © Crown copyright Met Office Summer convective events give highest daily rainfall WMFS - daily rainfall

33. © Crown copyright Met Office Summer incidents – convective heavy rainfall events – can be very localised, eg 8/8/99 When daily rainfall < 20mm, number of incidents can be few – but not always What about incidents when hardly any daily rainfall? In-building events or fluvial? Sensitivity – some areas have higher pop density; also sewers may be less able to cope with intense events Adaptation – sewer upgrades (Severn Trent Water are doing this in Aston area)… WMFS - flooding overview - summer 1999

34. © Crown copyright Met Office Gridded daily rainfall & incident duration 1999

35. © Crown copyright Met Office Rainfall analysis 30 mm rainfall in 1 hour ~ 1 in 35 years 30 mm rainfall in 1 day ~ once per year

36. © Crown copyright Met Office WMFS - flooding overview - winter 1999

37. © Crown copyright Met Office 2 major codes are used, supplemented by free text with instructions about location or nature of event WMFS - flooding incident codes

38. © Crown copyright Met Office An example of incident reports

39. © Crown copyright Met Office 2003/4 peak related to temps & drought Investigate relationships… WMFS - secondary fires

40. © Crown copyright Met Office Baseline (e.g. UKCP09 1961-90) Projections (e.g. UKCP09 2080s) Climate Models Current Observations Weather/Climate Observations Future Observations Fire service resources Current Climate Risks (e.g. Weather related resource usage) Future Climate Risks Future Present Fire Service Climate Risk Assessment: Methodology Change factor Absolute value Non-climate vulnerabilities

41. © Crown copyright Met Office IRMP & CIRF Fire and Rescue Services need to ensure that robust but flexible response arrangements are in place to deal with the impacts of climate change and associated changing community risks. Issues include Call Demand Levels Appliances and Equipment Availability Training and Development of Staff PPE and Welfare Issues Broadening of Role This can be achieved by drawing on available research and climate change expertise, for guidance.

42. © Crown copyright Met Office For further information, contact - Rory Campbell (rory.campbell@wmfs.net) Tim Donovan (tim.donovan@metoffice.gov.uk)rory.campbell@wmfs.nettim.donovan@metoffice.gov.uk

43. © Crown copyright Met Office Questions & answers