1. Australia’s likely future climate and impacts Penny Whetton IPAA March 2010 Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship

2. Global average temperatures are rising CSIRO Climate change: the latest science CRU, UEA

3. Causes of observed warming CSIRO Climate change: the latest science IPCC 2001

4. Global impact of future emissions CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Garnaut Report (2008)

5. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Global warming by 2100: 450 ppm: 0.8 – 2.1 °C 550 ppm: 1.1 – 2.7 °C No mitigation: 2.4 – 6.4 °C Future temperature changes

6. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Global warming by 2100: 450 ppm: 0.8 – 2.1 °C 550 ppm: 1.1 – 2.7 °C No mitigation: 2.4 – 6.4 °C

7. Future rainfall changes CSIRO Climate change: the latest science More rainfall, except drier in mid-latitudes (including southern Australia) Precipitation increase in ≥90% of simulations Precipitation increase in ≥75% of simulations Precipitation decrease in ≥90% of simulations Precipitation decrease in ≥75% of simulations IPCC 2007

8. Sea-level rise will continue CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

9. Rainfall: wetter in the northwest and drier in the southwest and east Temperature: greatest warming in eastern and central Australia, with more extremely hot days and fewer frosts Australia’s climate has changed

10. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Future changes in average temperature 2030: 0.6 to 1.5°C warmer for a medium emissions scenario 2070: 1.0 to 2.5°C warmer for a low emissions scenario 2070: 2.2 to 5°C warmer for a high emissions scenario Small changes in average temperature have a big effect on extreme daily temperatures Median warming in 2030, relative to 1990, for a medium emissions scenario °C

11. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Future changes in average rainfall Annual rainfall in 2030 Southern Aus: 0 to -10% Northern Aus: +5 to -10% Median % rainfall change in 2030, relative to 1990, for a medium emissions scenario (stippling shows where at least 67% of models agree on the direction of change) Largest rainfall decreases in winter and spring Increased drought extent and frequency in the south Heavier rain-storms in summer and autumn, little change in winter and spring

12. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Stronger tropical cyclones, with uncertainty about changes in frequency Larger oceanic storm surges, superimposed on sea-level rise Future cyclones and storm surges

13. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Water security problems are likely to intensify in southern and eastern Australia Around 9% less water in the northern Murray Darling Basin (MDB) by 2030, and 13% less in the southern MDB Greater risks for coastal flooding from sea-level rise and storm surges Area inundated by a 1-in-100 year storm surge in Cairns is likely to double by 2050 Significant loss of biodiversity in sensitive areas By 2020, bleaching and damage to Great Barrier Reef equivalent to that in 1998 and 2002 in up to 50% of years Potential impacts

14. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Greater risks to major infrastructure due to increases in extreme weather events, including bush fire More damage to buildings, transport services, energy services, telecommunications and water services More heat-related deaths for people aged over 65 1115 deaths per year at present in the 5 largest capital cities, increasing to 2300-2500 per year by 2020 Reduced production in agriculture and forestry in south and east National wheat yield: +10% to -50% by 2070 Reduced grape quality by 2030

15. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Adaptation Preparing for the impacts of climate change; Aim is to reduce the negative consequences, take advantage of any possible opportunities. Seeking solutions to the climate change challenge Mitigation Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to address the cause of climate change;

16. Responding to climate change CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Low mitigation now Higher impacts and adaptation later

17. Responding to climate change CSIRO Climate change: the latest science High mitigation now Low mitigation now Higher impacts and adaptation later Lower impacts and adaptation later

18. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science Thank you CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Presenter’s name Presenter’s title Phone: +61 3 9545 2176 Email: Name.Name@csiro.au Web: www.cmar.csiro.au CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Presenter’s name Presenter’s title Phone: +61 3 9545 2176 Email: Name.Name@csiro.au Web: www.cmar.csiro.au/group Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Thank you Penny Whetton Phone: +61 3 9239 4535 Email: Penny.Whetton@csiro.au Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au