1. UNCLASSIFIED1 Can we get to “Success” in Afghanistan? NATO PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY Riga, Latvia 30 June 2010 Jack D. Segal, Chief Political Advisor to the Commander, JFC Brunssum

2. “60% of the country is not at war” 2UNCLASSIFIED

3. ISAF’s Strategy 3 IJC HQ As of: 24 Apr 10 DisruptDevelopTransition Disrupt the insurgency, protect the populace, and deny the Taliban the ability to unseat the government Shift main effort to the growth and reform of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) – develop in both quantity and quality to quell the violence Transition ANSF to the lead for security – based on time, space, and as conditions on the ground permit UNCLASSIFIED

4. 2010 Total: 49 Districts 17 Provinces (includes Kabul) Key Highways 4 Border Crossings 1 International Airport (Kabul) Key Terrain & Area of Interest Districts 2010 4UNCLASSIFIED IJC HQ As of: 24 Apr 10

5. OP MOSHTARAK (“TOGETHER”) 5UNCLASSIFIED

6. Hamkari Baraye Kandahar “Cooperation for Kandahar” 6UNCLASSIFIED

7. ISAF is growing 46 Contributing Nations; 102,554 troops (30K more coming) 27 Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) * Turkey recognizes the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name 16 April 2010 7UNCLASSIFIED NATO website

8. But ISAF casualties are also growing AustraliaAustralia 11 Belgium 1 Canada 146BelgiumCanada Czech Rep.Czech Rep. 3 Denmark 31 Estonia 7DenmarkEstonia FinlandFinland 1 France 42 Germany 42FranceGermany HungaryHungary 2 Italy 24 Jordan 1ItalyJordan LatviaLatvia 3 Lithuania 1 NATO Civ. 3LithuaniaNATO Civ. NetherlandsNetherlands 24 Norway 5 Poland 16NorwayPoland PortugalPortugal 2 Romania 13 Rep. Korea 1RomaniaRep. Korea SpainSpain 28 Sweden 4 Turkey 2SwedenTurkey UKUK 288 US 1086US iCasualties.org May 2010 DATA SINCE 2001 8UNCLASSIFIED Total 1788

9. UNCLASSIFIED9 Discussion

10. UNCLASSIFIED10 Backup slides

11. ISAF Objectives for July 2011 Population actively supports Afghan govt. The people have access to formal and traditional justice Negative influencers – insurgents, corrupt officials, powerbrokers, warlords, money lords, drug lords – marginalized or removed ANSF provides security to enable governance and development Essential services available to the Afghan people Freedom of movement enables commercial activity Economic development improves Agricultural productivity improves IN 81 KEY TERRAIN DISTRICTS AND URBAN AREAS : 11UNCLASSIFIED IJC HQ As of: 24 Apr 10

12. OP MOSHTARAK Civil- military offensive Planned/executed with AFG government 15,000 troops 5 AFG brigades including ANA, ANP, Border Police and Gendarmerie (ANCOP). ISAF forces from USA, GBR, DNK, EST, CAN. 12UNCLASSIFIED

13. ANSF Grows to 305.600 by Oct. 2011 13 As of: 24 Apr 10 The Magnitude of the Growth 2003 - 2009: 6 Years and $20.5B Build and sustain 200K force 2010 - 2011: 2 Years and $20.8B Sustain and regenerate 200K force Build and sustain an additional 105K 42% Growth in 18 months UNCLASSIFIED NATO TRAINING MISSION – AFGHANISTAN UNCLASSIFIED

14. NTM-A Manning 14 42% (Nov 2009) 53% (Mar 2010) NTM-A ManningRequiredAssignedShortAssigned % 5,1112,6932,418 53% As of: 24 Apr 10 Majority of shortages are due from NATO (other than US) Require 1793 more NATO (other than US) trainers/instructors 100% (?) UNCLASSIFIED

15. 15UNCLASSIFIED

16. Institutional Development Establish enduring institutions… taught by Afghan leaders… UNCLASSIFIED 16 National Military Academy of Afghanistan (NMAA) National Military Hospital (NMH) Kabul Military Training Center (KMTC) Kabul Air Corps Training Center (KACTC) Afghan National Police Academy (ANPA) NMAA Class of 1388 NMH KMTC ANPA KACTC As of: 24 Apr 10 NATO TRAINING MISSION – AFGHANISTAN (NTM-A) UNCLASSIFIED

17. TRANSITION IC will enable the Afghan Government to take full responsibility for its own country. London Conf. (Jan 2010): Roadmap for transition to Afghan lead. At Tallinn, Afghan Government, NATO/ISAF Foreign Ministers endorsed political and military criteria. Criteria: ANSF capabilities; ability and authority of the Afghan Government to impose the rule of law and manage public administration at sub-national and local levels; capacity to sustain socio-economic development. Driven by conditions on the ground; not by the calendar. – ISAF gradually shifts to a supporting role. Way forward at the Kabul Conference this summer. 17UNCLASSIFIED