1. Unit 4 Political Beliefs and Behaviors

2. Unit Objectives Beliefs that citizens hold about their government and its leaders. Processes by which citizens learn about politics The nature, sources and consequences of public opinion. The ways in which citizens vote and otherwise participate in political life. Factors that influence citizens to differ from one another in terms of political and beliefs and behaviors.

3. Public Opinion Lecture #1

4. Public Opinion Defined How people think or feel about particular government policy issues.

5. Influence of Public Opinion Federalist Papers Written to gain support for the newly written U.S. Constitution. Common Sense Distributed widely throughout the colonies to stimulate patriotic feelings and to increase public support for the Revolutionary War. Uncle Tom’s Cabin Used to spread the idea of abolitionism. Committee on Public Information Wilson’s plan to unite public opinion for World War I.

7. Types of Publics Elites Those with disproportionate amount of political resources. Raise issues and help sent national agenda. Influence the resolution of issues. Attentive Those with an active interest in government and politics. Mass Those with little interest in government and politics.

8. Types of Opinions Stable Change very little e.g. death penalty Fluid Change frequently e.g. presidential popularity Latent Dormant, but may be aroused e.g. military draft Salient Have some personal importance to individuals e.g. gun control

9. Types of Opinions Consensus Shared by 75% of the people or more e.g. Balanced budget Polarized Shared by less than 75% e.g. ERA

10. Measurement of Public Opinion Elections This can be deceiving, it does not tell us WHY people voted as they did. Straw Polls Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinion, these can be inaccurate. Literary digest’s 1936 presidential poll is an example. Predicted Republican candidate would beat FDR. Oversampled the upper and middle class.

11. Straw Poll Example Did the Tea Party influence the outcome of the midterm elections? Yes No Undetermined Results?

12. Measurement of Public Opinion Scientific Polls Construction Define the universe; population to be measured. Selection of sampling Random means: where each person in the universe has an equal chance of being selected. oStratified sampling is used to ensure oversampling of one public group does not happen. oNews organizations use telephones and randomly call every tenth person. Sampling errors are expressed in +/- terms Writing question: avoid bias in the questions. Selecting the means of polling.

13. Measurement of Public Opinion Uses of polls Informing the public Informing candidates Informing office-holders Making election night projections; exit polls

14. Fatal Polls

15. Abuses of Polls Horse Race These polls are emphasized during campaigns at the expense of the issues. Pandering Candidates and office-holders use polls to pander to the whims of the public. Exit Polls Early projections from exit polls can discourage voter turn out.

16. Public Awareness Surveys show substantial lack of political knowledge on the part of the public. Identifying political figures Congressman, senator, chief justice Identifying key issues In 1982, after years of debate, 1/3 of adults indicated that they had never heard of ERA. In 1993, after extensive debate, 60% of Americans indicated that they were not following the NAFTA story. In 2007, only 24% had knowledge that both houses of congress had passed legislation to raise the minimum wage.

17. Did you pay attention? 1. Define public opinion. 2. Identify one public type. 3. Identify the difference between a Straw Poll and a scientific poll. 4. Identify two items needed to construct a scientific poll. 5. Discuss one reason we use polls. 6. Discuss one way we abuse polls. 7. Discuss what surveys show concerning the publics knowledge on politics.

19. Political Culture Lecture #2

21. Political Culture Defined The widely-shared beliefs, values, and norms that citizens share about their government.

22. Characteristics Liberty Individualism/rugged individualism, as opposed to collectivism/statism Democracy

23. Characteristics Equality Equality of opportunity more than equality of result Political equality more than economic equality American Dream Reverence for property/capitalism/chance to acquire wealth FDR’s “second Bill of Rights” (1944) Ensuring economic security Employment, housing, medical care, education, social security.

24. Characteristics Civic Duty The strongest society is the one that has developed “social capital” – the social networks that bind people together. Political scientist Robert Putnam uses (1995), as an example of the decline in social capital, the decline in the number of people who participate in bowling leagues The number of people who bowl has increased, but the number of people who bowl in leagues has declined With a decline in social networks, there is less likely hood of people coming together to exchange ideas. Smaller degree of civic duty. How has this changed in the “Facebook” era?

25. Characteristics Distrust of government Impact of Vietnam War and Watergate. Political efficacy The sense that one can both understand and influence public policy. Political tolerance Pragmatism Americans tend to be less ideological Justice Belief in the rule of law.

26. Did you pay attention?

27. Ideology and Public Policy Lecture #3

28. Background Ideology Integrated set of beliefs and values that shape a person’s views. Smaller percentage of ideologues in our two-party system than in the multi-party system used in Europe. Most Americans tend to be non-ideological – Moderate.

29. Liberalism Classical liberalism of 18 th century Limited role of government. Government seen as chief threat to liberty. “That government is best which governs least.” Role of government is to protect property rights.

30. Liberalism Modern liberalism of 20 th century (New Deal) Expanded role of government. Corporations seen as chief threat to liberty. Need for a strong central government. Role of government is to protect people’s well-being. Evil Corporation

31. Liberalism Backlash against liberalism, 1980’s and 1090’s Liberalism had gone too far. Get back to individualism and small government. More IndividualismLess Government

32. Liberalism Neoliberalism Less likely to rely upon government as solution to problems Rise of Democratic Leadership Council, Bill Clinton and John Edwards “We cannot build our own future without helping others to build theirs.”

33. Liberalism Return of New Deal liberalism (progressivism) More willing to use the federal government as a tool to protect the well-being of the people. Election of Obama

34. Conservatism Essentially classical liberalism A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government.

35. Conservatism Resurgence since late 70’s Reagan/Bush 41/Bush 43 104 th – 109 th – 112 th Republican Congresses Strength in the formerly “solid South”, Rocky Mtns., Great Plains Strength among evangelical Christians Emphasis today on the private sector to solve problems. Strong support for large tax cuts, which occurred under both Clinton and Bush 43

36. Conservatism “Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.” “Read my lips: no new taxes. “

37. Neoconservatives The New Right Some, emphasize social issues like Prayer in school Anti-abortion Anti-homosexuality Support form evangelical Christians “Religious Right” Use of faith-based initiatives

38. Neoconservatism Some are more aggressive in dealing with foreign threats such as terrorism and more supportive intervention, as in Iraq.

39. Neoconservatism Some are neoisolationists Shy away from intervention Wary of any “new world order” Wary of international organizations like the UN Wary of NAFTA

40. Compassionate Conservatism A more moderate brand of conservatism. Tax refunds Medicare prescription drug assistance

41. Socialism System in which means of production, distribution, and exchange are controlled by the government. Strong impact in Western Europe Reasons for weakness in U.S. Association with radicalism Belief in individualism Belief in American Dream Suspicion of big government

42. Libertarianism Extreme emphasis on individual liberty Extreme cutback on role of government Government should only defend the nation. No Federal Reserve God Bless America!!

44. Did you pay attention? Define ideology. Discuss role of liberalism in the 18 th century. Discuss role of New Deal liberalism. Discuss ideology of neoliberals. Compare conservatism to 18 th century liberalism. Discuss conservatism in the 80’s and 90’s. Define Neoconservative and Compassionate Conservative. Define Socialism. Define Liberatarian.

45. Political Socialization Lecture #4

46. Defined The process in which people acquire their political beliefs.

47. Agents Family Strongest Correlation between parent’s party affiliation and child’s party affiliation. Less of a correlation on specific policy issues. Fairly equal influence of mother and father. Father’s party ID has greater impact on sons, mother’s party ID has greater impact on daughters 1960’s conservative college kids were called Red diaper babies.

48. Family

49. Agents Schools Impart basic values, e.g. civic duty, patriotism High school government classes apparently do not change political orientation of students. Peers can have small part in the socialization of students.

50. Agents College Studies in the past have shown that increase schooling in college has led to a more liberal socialization. College students in the past were more active in voting and political activity. This is associated with the reading of newspapers and periodicals.

51. Agents Religion Protestant Silent Majority, Moral Majority, Christian Coalition. Generally more conservative Evangelicals are more conservative on social issues.

52. Agents Religion Catholic Traditionally more liberal Greater acceptance of Catholics, greater inclusion into mainstream of society, and an increasing importance of various social issues (abortion, gay rights) Catholics voted for Clinton, Bush 43, and Obama

53. Agents Religion Jewish Liberal influence, strong support for the Democratic Party.

54. Agents Race Whites More conservative, greater support for Republicans Blacks More liberal, strongest supporters of Democratic Party. Hispanics Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans more liberal and supportive of Democrats, Cubans are more conservative and supportive of Republicans Bush gained 44% from the Hispanic vote Obama won the Hispanic vote

55. Race Conservative Liberal Conservative

56. Agents Income Those with higher incomes tend to be more conservative and supportive of Republicans. Those with lower incomes tend to be more liberal and supportive of Democrats. WHY???

57. Agents Opinion Leaders Help to build a persons ideology through reinforcement. Church leaders Teachers Political leaders Coaches Boy Scout leaders Media elites

58. Agents Mass Media A big controversy over whether the media is liberal or conservative or moderate. The primary thought outside the media shows the media as extremely liberal Fox News being the exception. The primary thought inside the media shows the media as moderate and unbiased. What do you believe?

59. Agents Gender “Year of the Woman” in 1992. Many more women elected to Congress. The 2010 election saw a shrinkage of liberal woman in Congress. Clinton appealed to the “soccer moms” Sex sensitive issues provoke different views among the sexes. Gender Gap The difference in political views between men and women 2004: female vote, Bush 48% Kerry 51% 2008: Obama won 56% of the female vote

60. Gender Gap Conservative Liberal

61. The Exception I shot a moose don’t ya know!

62. Agents Cross pressure Conflicting elements within one’s own political socialization.

63. Did you pay attention Define political socialization. Identify the strongest socialization agent. Describe what values schools impart to students. Describe the difference between religions in socialization. Identify the political party identifications by race. Describe how income affects socialization. Describe how an opinion leader adds to your socialization. Define gender gap. Identify party identifications by gender.

64. Voter Turnout Lecture #5

65. Historical Qualifications for Suffrage Religion eliminated by state legislatures Property eliminated by state legislatures Race eliminated by 15 th Amendment Sex eliminated by 19 th Amendment Income eliminated by 24 th Amendment Literacy eliminated by Voting Rights Act of 1965 Minimum age of 21 eliminated by 26 th Amendment

66. Current Qualifications These are set by states: Citizenship Residency Age Registration (in all states except ND)

67. Voter Turnout in U.S. Voter turnout: number of those who voted/number of those age-eligible to vote Percentages: Presidential: ~50%(up slightly in 2008 – 56%) Midterm Congressional 30%-40% State and Local 20%-25% Voter turnout has declined since 1960

68. Voter Turnout Compared Comparable industrialized nations Higher turnout than U.S. ~90% Reasons: U.S. does not impose compulsory penalties for not voting. (i.e. fines, government papers stamped “DID NOT Vote) Other nations have multi-party systems that allow more choice. Other nations have automatic/same day registration.

69. Reasons For Low Turnout Institutional Barriers Registration National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (Motor Voter Bill) Allows people to register when renewing license or car. Various public offices also offer registration forms. Requires states to allow registration by mail. Has not increased voter turn out. “Ballot Fatigue” Excessive number of offices/measures on the ballot, voters become “fatigued” in getting through the ballot Excessive Number of Elections

70. Reasons For Low Turnout Institutional Barriers Type of Election: General election turnout v. primary election turnout Presidential election turnout v. legislative election turnout National election turnout v. state election turnout Difficulties in obtaining absentee ballots Not all military personal receive ballots in time. Voter turnout declined after the passage of the 26 th Amendment Young people tend to have the lowest turnout

71. Reasons For Low Turnout Political Reasons Lack of political efficacy Dissatisfaction with candidates, parties, and politics in general. Lack of strong 2-party competition Weakness of parties mobilizing Voting is confusing. My vote doesn’t count. Politicians don’t listen. The government doesn’t care about me.

72. Characteristics of Voters Educational Achievement: Those with high levels of education are more likely to vote Income: Those with higher levels are more likely to vote. Age: Older voters are more likely to vote. Race: Caucasians are more likely to vote than African Americans. Hispanics vote least among these groups. Asians turnout is higher than Hispanics, but is on the decline. Sex: Men used to vote more often, but women are slowly inching ahead on voter turnout.

73. Other Forms of Political Participation Petitions Demonstrations/marches/rallies Local party meetings Making campaign contributions Writing letters to the editor Trying to persuade others

74. Compulsory Voting

75. Did you pay attention? Identify two historical voter qualifications. Identify one current voter qualification. Describe the differences between presidential and congressional election turnout. Describe the purpose of the Motor Voter Bill. Define “ballot fatigue” Describe the effects of voter turnout upon ratification of the 26 th Amendment. Identify the greatest predictor of voting.

76. Factors Affecting Voter Behavior Lecture #6

77. Geography Solid South: Traditionally Democratic, but increasingly now republican. 1968 was the turning point, Nixon’s election. Great Plains: Republican Rocky Mtns: Republican trend New England: Traditionally Republican, but increasingly Democratic. Great Lakes region: Democratic trend, but several swing states – Ohio Far West region: Democratic trend

78. 2008 Electoral College Results

79. 2004 Electoral College Results

80. Coattail Effect Presence of an especially strong presidential candidate.

81. Time Maintaining elections: Political alignment remains same 1960, 1964 Deviating elections: Temporary change in political alignment 1952, 1956, 1980 Critical “realigning” elections: Long term change in political alignment, replacement of political coalition or party Must change in Presidential, House, and Senate. 1860, 1896, 1932 Midterm elections: Party in power has lost seats in Congress every midterm election since 1938 (except for 1998 &2002)

82. Political Party Identification Defined Psychological sense of attachment to a political party 7 point scale of party identification http://www.electionstudies.org/nesguide/toptable/tab2a_1.h tm Probably the strongest predictor of voting behavior

83. Straight Ticket Voting Voting for candidates who are all of the same party. Facilitated by party-column ballot.

84. Split Ticket Voting Voting for candidates of different parties for various offices in the same election. Facilitated by office-column ballot Helped to break up party strengths

86. Independents Rising numbers leading to a decline in Democratic and Republican parties. Some are “leaners” Independent Republicans Independent Democrats Others are pure independents Characteristics Young College educated Above average incomes

87. Voting Behavior - Issues Retrospective voting: Looking back on whether or not things have gotten better or worse since the last election. Many voters will look at the economy during the presidential election, this cost Bush 41 the election. Prospective voting: Looking at the candidates’ views on the issues, and how they will accordingly handle the office if elected. Many voters looked prospectively at Obama.

88. Did you pay attention? Identify one geographic regions for the Democrats. Identify one geographic region for the Republicans. Define Critical Elections. Identify the strongest predictor of voting behavior. Describe the effect of split-ticket voting on party strength. Identify one characteristic of independent voters. Define retrospective voting.

89. Congressional Elections Lecture #7

90. Congressional Facts Members of Congress have fixed terms Term limits imposed by states have been overturned by the Supreme Court (US Term Limits v. Thornton). Term limits would change the qualifications of Congress and require a Constitutional Amendment. U.S. uses a winner-take-all/single member district. The candidate with the most votes wins.

91. Primary Elections A Progressive reform from the early 20 th century designed to weaken parties. Types: Closed Open Blanket

92. Closed Primary Used in most states Only registered party members can vote for partisan offices, no crossing party lines Protects political parties.

93. Open Primary Independents may vote. Voters get a ballot of any party they wish. This can lead to “raiding” or damage to the political party.

94. Blanket Primary (Free Love) Independents may vote. Voters can mix and match their votes for different offices. Damaging to political parties. Used in California from 1998 to 2000. Made legal by proposition 198. Declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Why do you think? It violated a political parties 1 st Amendment rights of association.

95. Modified Open Primary Independents may vote in the election. BUT, parties must give their permission in writing to the Secretary of State with in a designated time. Currently used in California. Can I vote?

96. Factors Affecting Congressional Elections Incumbency Type of Election Coattail effect Party affiliation Issues Campaign consultants Technology

97. Incumbency The greatest influence Scope of incumbency advantage ~90% of congressmen who run are reelected ~80% of senators A lack of competitiveness has led to a charge of a “permanent congress”

98. Incumbency Advantages of incumbents Franking Privilege Campaign staff already in place Gerrymandered districts Committee service to district Name recognition Casework done for constituents Pork barrel projects for district Money – out spend the challengers.

99. Type of Election Incumbent campaigns Least competitive Weak challenger campaigns Uncompetitive Strong Challenger campaigns More competitive Open seat campaigns Most competitive House or Senate (latter more competitive) Midterm elections – Presidents party loses seats

100. Did you pay attention? Explain why term limits are unconstitutional. Define winner take all. Identify the most common used primary. Explain why the blanket primary is unconstitutional Identify the greatest influence in congressional elections. Identify two advantages incumbents have. Describe the type of election a president’s party will most likely lose seats.

101. Path to the Presidency Lecture #8

102. “Invisible Primary” Unofficial campaigning done by unofficial candidates. Obama and Clinton started campaigning in 2006. Republicans are starting to campaign for the 2012 election. Sarah Palin Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee

103. Nomination Phase Caucus Some states use a caucus method of sending delegates to national convention. Local caucuses -> district convention -> state convention. Each level selects delegates to attend higher level. Iowa is IMPORTANT!! 1 st state to hold caucuses each presidential election Chance for candidate to build momentum.

104. Nomination Phase Primary Other states use presidential primaries as a method of sending delegates to the national convention. This has increased over the past 30 years. It is more democratic. Importance of New Hampshire. 1 st state to hold primary election each year. Chance for a candidate to build momentum.

105. Front Loading Primaries any are held earlier and earlier Super Tuesday Many southern states held their primaries early in the election season. This has morphed into a situation where more and more non- southern states are moving up the dates of their primaries as well. Tentative Super Tuesday for 2012, February 7

106. Superdelegates Party leaders and elected officials who become delegates to the national convention without having to run in primaries or caucuses. A response to the 1968 McGovern-Fraser Commission, Democratic Party. Purpose was to restore a prominent role for those party leaders and elected officials at the convention.

107. National Convention Selection of the presidential nominee A mere formality since the winner is know well ahead of time. Selection of V.P. Chosen by the presidential nominee and rubber stamped by the convention. “Balancing the ticket” Development of the party platform Reconciliation and unification of party by end of convention.

109. Analysis of Nominating System Pro Highly participatory Caucuses Primaries Conventions Highly representative A testing ground for candidates

110. Analysis of Nominating System Cons Low rates of turnout Too lengthy Too much emphasis on media game Front-loading has adversely affected states with later primaries Votes in primaries tend to be better educated and more affluent Delegates at caucuses and conventions tend to be unrepresentative More ideological, more activist, more educated, less moderate, much more wealthy

111. General Election Fall Campaign – appeal to the center Election day – 1 st Tuesday after the 1 st Monday in November Meeting of Electors – Monday after the second Wednesday in December, votes are mailed to Washington D.C. Formal Election – President of the Senate counts the votes before joint meeting of Congress on January 3 rd. Inauguration Day – January 20 th.

112. Did you pay attention? Define invisible primary Identify the 1 st state caucus. Identify the 1 st state primary. Define Front-loading. Describe a Superdelegate and identify the purpose for having one. Explain the purpose of the national convention Identify one pro for the nominating system Identify one con for the nominating system

113. The Electoral College Lecture #9

114. Constitutional Convention Rationale Poor communication -> Common people would lack information. Select the best people as President -> Common people could be swayed. A compromise between direct election and congressional election It would work without political parties Covers the nominating phase and the electing phase Produces a non-partisan President.

115. Allotment of Electoral Votes Each state has as many electoral votes as it has members in congress Minimum of 3 Washington D.C. has 3 votes by virtue of the 23 rd Amendment. Total of 538 votes California has the highest number (55) Implications of movement of people from “rust belt” to “sun belt” Increasing in the latter Decreasing in the former

117. Selection of Electors Each party develops a slate of electors prior to the election These electors are attached to the parties presidential primary candidate When the voter votes for the candidate, they are choosing the electors the party has chosen.

118. Winning of Electoral Votes Candidate with the most popular votes wins the elector votes for the state Only a plurality is needed. This is another example of a “winner-take-all” system. Candidates concentrate on the large states A large emphasis is placed on “swing states” Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan Electors meet in respective state capitals in December to cast a ballot for the President and Vice President.

119. I heard the Electoral College was a great party school!!! Toga! Toga! Toga!

120. Winning the Election A majority of electoral votes (270) is needed to win. If no candidate wins a majority The House selects President from among the top 3 candidates. Each state has 1 vote. Had to be done in 1800 and 1824 The 1800 election resulted in the 12 th Amendment The Senate selects the V.P. from among the top two candidates. The Founders imagined the House choosing the President most of the time. They did not imagine a strong two party system.

121. Criticisms President can be elected with only a plurality, rather than a majority, or popular votes A 3 rd party candidate could break up a popular majority. Possibility of a minority president (2000) Winner take all distorts margins of victory Faithless Electors -> no federal law to punish electors who vote against popular vote Small states are proportionately overrepresented Inhibits development of a third party

122. Ross Perot in 1992 http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?f=0&year=199 2

123. Alternatives Direct election Each person’s vote would count as much as every other person’s vote District system Candidate who wins a congressional district wins that district’s electoral vote. Overall winner would get the “bonus” electoral votes from the Senate seats. Proportional system Candidate gets same percentage of electoral votes as popular. Keep electoral votes but abolish the electors themselves

124. Why Not Abolish the Electoral College? Tradition Difficulties in amending the Constitution Opposition from the overrepresented small states Opposition from urban racial minorities Concentration of racial minorities in swing states give them the clout to “tip the scales” towards their favored candidates under the present system. Especially in swing states Could see a rise of third parties and run off elections.

125. Did you pay attention? Explain the rationale behind the Electoral College Identify the minimum number of votes a state can have. Identify the total number of votes in the Electoral College Describe the process for electing the president if there is a tie. Describe one criticism of the Electoral College Identify one alternative to the Electoral College

126. Campaign Finance Lecture #10

127. Federal Election Campaign Acts 1971-1974 Established a Federal Elections commission to regulate federal elections. All candidates must disclose contributions and expenditures Presidential candidates can receive federal subsidies on a matching fund basis. 2004 Bush and Kerry received $74 million 2008 Obama chose not to take funds. 2008 McCain accepted funds. Presidential candidates who receive federal money are subjected to spending limitations.

128. Contribution Limitations Individuals $1000 per candidate, per election PACs $5000 per candidate, per election and no overall cap.

129. Buckley v. Valeo (1976) Court upheld limits on campaign contributions Court struck down limits on congressional campaign spending. 1 st Amendment protects spending as a form of expression. Limits still OK for presidential campaigns.

130. Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (McCain-Feingold Bill) Bans soft money donations to national political parties Soft Money Undisclosed, unlimited donations to parties for party building activities. Limits soft money donations to state political parties to $10,000 Doubled individuals “hard money” donations to $2000 and indexes for inflation. Hard Money Disclosed, limited donations to candidates

131. BCRA continued PACs No change on PAC limits Still $5000 Unions and corporations banned from giving soft money to parties. Citizens United v. FEC (2010) changed the BCRA Corporations and unions may now make contributions closer to election day through issue advocacy ads. (soft money)

132. Campaign Finance Analysis No subsidies for congressional campaigns Further incumbency advantage No limits on spending in congressional races Massive spending on congressional races and further incumbency advantage. Members of congress spend great amounts of time with fund raising projects No limitations on independent expenditures Money spent on behalf of the candidate. 527s Tax exempt groups that engage in political activities They can receive unlimited contributions and spend them on voter mobilization efforts and issue advocacy ads. Basically, a response to BCRA’s ban on soft money.

133. Campaign Finance Analysis Minor presidential candidates cannot receive subsidies before the election unless their party earned at least 5% of the popular vote in the previous election. Parties are weakened since presidential election funds go to the candidates themselves rather than the parties Candidate centered campaigns Growth of PACs and candidate dependence on PACs No limitations on “bundling” Cost of campaigning has risen More time spent on fundraising.

134. Did you pay attention? Identify the commission that the Federal Elections Act created. Describe the contribution limitations of the Federal Elections Act. Describe the changes Buckley v. Valeo made to the Federal Campaign Act. Define soft money, hard money. Explain the restrictions created by the BCRA. Define 527 groups. Describe an issue advocacy ad.