1. The reform of vocational qualifications 14-19 Jim Dobson 11 March 2016 1 Presentation Title Arial Bold 7 pt

2. The impact of reforms on the KS4 curriculum

3. Key reforms at key stage 4 Progress 8 New GCSEs – content New GCSEs – grades EBacc Coasting schools Technical Awards

4. New GCSE grades – broad equivalences

5. The impact of moving to grades 9-1 and the new good pass ‒ Broadly the same proportion of students at a national level will achieve a grade 4 and above as currently achieve a grade C and above ‒ Approximately two thirds of those currently achieving a C will get grade 4 ‒ The top third of current C grades and the bottom third of the current B grades will become grade 5 ‒ While this is true at a national level, at individual school level it may look quite different, with ‘winners’ getting a greater share of the nationally available 4 and 5 grades than currently, and ‘losers’ getting a smaller share 5

6. The impact of moving to grades 9-1 and the new good pass - 2017 ‒ Grade 5 will be awarded to the top third of those who currently get grade C and the bottom third of those currently getting grade B ‒ In crude terms, this is what numbers could look like for England in 2017, assuming the same number of candidates: Subject 2015 grade C and above 2017 grade 5 and above Drop in ‘good pass’ Proportion of cohort English lang65%46%85,00019% English lit75%59%65,00016% Maths64%44%137,00020% 6

7. The impact of moving to grades 9-1 and the new good pass - 2018 Subject 2015 grade C and above 2017 grade 5 and above Drop in ‘good pass’ Proportion of cohort Biology91%78%16,50013% Chemistry91%78%16,00013% Physics92%79%16,50013% Science56%42%75,00014% Add science63%42%66,00021% Geography69%55%30,00014% History69%57%28,00012% French70%52%27,00018% Spanish72%56%14,00016% 7

8. Curriculum decisions and GCSE reform Every school is different, but there are decisions to make about: - Choice of specification, textbooks and other resources - Timetabling - Setting - 2 or 3 year KS4 - Staffing and how to manage change in - Demand - Content - Assessment (new tiers in maths, 100% external in English)

9. The impact of those decisions Those decisions will determine whether your school is a ‘winner’ or ‘loser’ in 2017 ‘Winners’ will be congratulated and want to consolidate what has proved to be good practice ‘Losers’ will review their decisions and make changes If we assume ‘loser’ schools in 2017 make changes that lead to improvement in 2018 – the 2017 ‘winners’ will see a drop in results, even though they have done nothing different How do you explain that to school senior management, governors, parents, Ofsted…..? 9

10. Ebacc participation and success rate 10

11. Coasting schools In 2014 and 2015 below 60% 5+ACEM and below median level of expected progress in English and maths In 2016 below a level yet to be set in Progress 8 A school will have to be below these levels for 3 years to be defined as ‘coasting’ By 2018 the definition of coasting will be based entirely on Progress 8 and will not have an attainment element

12. The impact of reforms on the 16+ curriculum

13. Key reforms post-16 Study programmes GCSE English and maths retakes New performance measures from 2016 (including Tech Bacc) Applied General and Tech Level Technical Certificates Apprenticeships Technical and professional education A level reforms Core maths

14. Headline measures 16-19 performance measures will be reported for schools and colleges in England New approach from summer 2016 results DfE looking at how training providers can be included too Reporting against 5 headline measures: Progress (academic, AG) or Completion/attainment (TL, TC) Attainment English and maths Retention Destinations

15. 15 What if a qualification is not on a post-16 list? Post-16 measures are based on individual qualification results o Every separate A level result goes into the academic ‘bucket’, whether a student took 1, 2, 3 or more o Every Applied General and Tech Level result goes into their separate buckets o It makes no difference to each bucket whether a student took all the same type of qualification, or took a mix, or took some (or even only) off-list qualifications o Average progress / achievement is calculated for each qualification type for headline measures If a qualification is not on a list, it cannot affect the headline measure for any category Results of qualifications not on a list do not influence these headline measures in any way – so no negative impact if a student includes any in their study programme

16. What will level 2 provision look like?

17. Clear divide between KS4 provision and post-16 KS4 provision complements a broad programme of learning and facilitates a wide range of progression Post-16 – performance tables incentivising preparation for employment in sectors which recruit at level 2 – assuming the majority will leave with level 2 as their highest achievement? What about those who under-achieved at KS4 but want to progress to level 3 study?

18. Level 2 post-16 and on to university…. In summer 2015: 51,918 learners completed and achieved a BTEC National aged 19+ Of these 51,918 learners −19,834 applied to university −13,738 had previously achieved a L2 BTEC First aged 16+ in the same college Of these 13,738 learners −4,373 applied to university This means that 32% of those learners who completed a BTEC National following Level 2 study post-16 went on to apply to university.

19. Technical Awards (Key stage 4) Broad high-quality level 1 and level 2 qualifications that equip students with applied knowledge and associated practical skills not usually acquired through general education Qualifications that focus on a particular occupation and, as a result, could limit a 16- year old’s progression opportunities, will not be approved as Technical Awards

20. Technical Certificates (post-16) Rigorous, intermediate (level 2) qualifications for post-16 students wishing to specialise in a specific industry, occupation or occupational group. They cover occupations where employers recognise entry at level 2 or where a level 2 qualification is required before students can progress to a Tech Level. They equip students with specialist knowledge and skills, enabling entry to employment, an Apprenticeship or progression to a Tech Level.

21. DfE criteria for Technical Awards and Technical Certificates Characteristic Technical Awards Technical Certificates A. Purpose – progression to… …further academic or vocational study... employment, Apprenticeship or Tech Level B. SizeMin 120 glhMin 150 glh C. Recognitionn/a5 employers/1 PB D. Appropriate contentBreadth of studyMin 40% mandatory E. External AssessmentMin 40%Min 25% F. Synoptic Assessment G. Grading H. Employer involvementn/aDelivery/assessment I. Progression J. Proven Track RecordTake-up in first 2 yrs 21

22. Technical Awards Majority 1 GCSE in size, at L2 or L1/2. (Number in brackets = L1) ▫Administration, accounting and personal finance – 1 (1) ▫Animal care – 1 ▫Art & design – 5 (4) ▫Business – 3 (1) ▫Child development and well-being – 3 (1) ▫Construction and the built environment – 6 (3) ▫Engineering – 15 (5) ▫Manufacturing – 1 (1) ▫Hair and beauty – 1 ▫Health & social care – 2 (2) ▫Hospitality & catering – 4 (2) ▫ICT – 5 (2) ▫Media and communication – 3 (2) ▫Performing arts – 7 (5) ▫Retail – 1 ▫Sport – 6 (2) ▫Travel & tourism – 2 (1)

23. Technical Certificates Majority 350-500 GLH in size; L2 only ▫Agriculture, horticulture, animal care – 33 ▫Arts, media and publishing – 6 ▫Business, accounting, administration, law – 14 ▫Construction, planning and built environment – 33 ▫Engineering, manufacturing and transportation – 25 ▫Health, social care and child development – 11 ▫ICT – 6 ▫Sport, travel and tourism – 9 ▫Retail, hospitality and commercial enterprise – 35

24. What will level 3 provision look like?

25. Increasing divide between route to HE… −A levels −Applied General qualifications …and route to employment −Tech levels −Apprenticeships

26. Tech Levels Rigorous level 3 qualifications, on a par with A levels and recognised by employers. They are for post-16 students wishing to specialise in a specific industry, occupation or occupational group. They equip a student with specialist knowledge and skills, enabling entry to an Apprenticeship or other employment, or progression to a related higher education course. In some cases, these qualifications provide a ‘licence to practise’ or exemption from professional exams.

27. Applied General qualifications Rigorous advanced (level 3) qualifications that equip students with transferable knowledge and skills, for those who wish to continue their education through applied learning. They fulfil entry requirements for a range of HE courses, either in their own right or alongside other qualifications.

28. DfE criteria for level 3 vocational qualifications Characteristic Applied General criteria (2018) Tech Level criteria (2018) A. Purpose – progression to…... range of subjects at a higher level or to employment... work in specific vocational areas – directly or via HE B. SizeMin 150 glhMin 300 glh C. Recognition3 HEIs5 employers/1 PB D. Appropriate contentMin 60% mandatoryMin 40% mandatory E. External AssessmentMin 40%Min 30% F. Synoptic Assessment G. Grading H. Employer involvementDelivery/assessment I. Progression J. Proven Track RecordTake-up in first 2 yrs 28

29. Tech Levels ▫Agriculture, horticulture, animal care – 24 ▫Arts, media and publishing – 8 ▫Business, accounting, administration, law – 4 ▫Child development and well-being – 3 ▫Construction, planning and built environment – 8 ▫Engineering and manufacturing – 13 ▫Health, social care – 3 ▫ICT – 12 ▫Sport – 1 ▫Retail, hospitality and commercial enterprise – 11 Nb: Updated list due to be published late March

30. Applied General ▫Performing arts and media – 5 ▫Finance and business – 4 ▫Health and social care – 2 ▫Construction and the built environment – 2 ▫Engineering – 2 ▫ICT – 2 ▫Sport – 4 ▫Hospitality – 1 ▫Science and mathematics – 3 ▫Sociology and social policy – 1 Nb: Updated list due to be published late March