1. Australian Higher Education – Attainment, demand and realities Dr. Daniel Edwards Student Demand Driven Education Conference Sydney, 19 March, 2012

2. Overview Snapshot post-Bradley – targets and policies Attainment targets by the numbers Demand – driving attainment Thoughts for the conference…

3. Post-Bradley Bradley Report: set ambitions offered ideas for achieving them Australian Government accepted the vision. Its response, Transforming Australia’s Higher Education System: set targets policy tools to achieve ambitions

4. Post-Bradley Key Targets: By 2025, 40% of all 25 to 34 year olds will hold a qualification at bachelor level or above. by 2020, 20% of higher education enrolments at undergraduate level will be of people from a low SES background. COAG halve the proportion of 20-64 year olds without Certificate III qualification by 2020. double the number of qualification completions (diplomas and advanced diplomas)

5. Post-Bradley Key Policies: TEQSA (Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency) Structural Adjustment Funding Education Investment Fund Low SES funding/student income support changes Student-centred funding model (i.e. Demand driven funding)…

6. Post-Bradley Demand driven funding: ‘From 2012, Australian public universities will be funded for student places on the basis of student demand’ ‘The Government will fund a Commonwealth supported place for all undergraduate domestic students accepted into an eligible, accredited higher education course at a recognised public higher education provider’

7. Post-Bradley Rationales for demand driven funding: offer greater flexibility to institutions (e.g. allowing for adaption during cyclical changes) offer greater opportunities to potential students offer greater choice formalise a system that was essentially operating as such (according to Bradley panel) ‘necessary if Australia is to achieve better attainment of higher education qualifications’ (Bradley Review p.155)

8. Attainment Targets Attainment Trends – 2001 to 2011 2001 = 24% 2011 = 35%

9. Attainment Targets 40 per cent attainment – the numbers… YearChange (required) 2010 to 2025 20102025NumberPercent Total population (25 to 34 years of age)3,067,1393,677,393610,25419.9 Persons with bachelor degree or above1,048,9621,470,957421,99640.2 Attainment rate (bachelor +)34.2%40%5.8 % points Note: base population data for 2010 and 2025 from ABS, Population Projections Australia, Series B, cat. 3222.0 % growth in bachelor qualified population needs to be double the growth in total population

10. Attainment Targets Attainment figures VS domestic participation 2001 = 22% 2011 = 26.3%

11. Attainment Targets Skilled migration – professionals aged 25 to 35 settling in Australia 2001-2009 2001 = 19,000 2009 = 35,500 In 2001 skilled migration intake was equivalent to 22% of the number of domestic graduates that year. But by 2009 skilled migration intake equivalent to 36% of the number of domestic graduates.

12. Attainment Targets International student completions (bachelor) 2001-2010 2001 = 21,000 2010 = 46,000 ABS: at least one third of graduates successfully apply for permanent residency. Further, visa 485 (graduate skills) facilitates the opportunity to remain in Australia for many more.

13. Attainment Targets Summary: Attainment in Australia has grown substantially in the past decade Data suggests this growth has been fuelled almost entirely through the skilled migration program and permanent residency for international students Conclusion: Need to be cautious in the assumption that the trend will continue…

14. Attainment Targets …international student numbers slowing after massive growth to 2009. AEI higher education commencement data:

15. Attainment Targets Skilled migration still growing and visa options for international students now more accessible. But policy ups and downs in past few years suggest that relying on these to facilitate attainment growth is unwise Therefore, the role of domestic provision important…

16. Attainment Targets …so what might be needed in terms of higher education output to reach attainment target? Source: Centre for Population and Urban Research 80% growth in completions 2010 to 2025 Gains of 5% growth per year from 2015 to 2021, between 2 and 4% other years

17. Forecast Growth in a Demand Driven System DEEWR estimates 2011-12 Federal Budget for full domestic ugrad load – been revised up on a yearly basis and currently stand at: 3.9% growth 2012-13 1.2% growth 2013-14 0.8% growth 2014-15 Demand driven system

18. Bradley Review anticipated modest growth to stem from demand driven funding. The panel noted: In 2007 when a 5 per cent over-enrolment buffer was introduced, only 3 universities utilised it. ‘this reflects the general low level of unmet demand for higher education places in the sector’ (p.156) But once the policy was announced, substantial ‘gearing up’ began – well before the 2012 introduction of the demand driven student funding… Demand driven system

19. Institution2010 estimate 2011 estimate Australian Catholic University39%32% Curtin University12% Flinders University14–18% Griffith University11% La Trobe University15% Macquarie University19% Monash University12%12–13% RMIT13% Swinburne University32% University of Adelaide15% University of Canberra27% University of New South Wales17% University of Queensland10% University of Southern Cross16% University of Western Australia10% University of Western Sydney23% Victoria University17% Reported Estimates of over-enrolment, selected universities Demand driven system 2010: at least 8 at or above 10% threshold 2011: at least 12 above threshold

20. Demand driven system Actual Growth in the Demand Driven System Substantial growth in offers across system since 2009 Note: change data from 2006 to 2009 based on DEEWR Offers and Acceptances publication, 2010 to 2012 on data collected from TACs

21. Actual Growth in the Demand Driven System Substantial growth since 2009 Note: change data from 2006 to 2009 based on DEEWR Offers and Acceptances publication, 2010 to 2012 on data collected from TACs Demand driven system

22. So, demand driven system is undeniably opening up opportunity for more to study. And the system is expanding as intended (albeit at a more frenetic pace than first anticipated) Is this growth enough to reach government targets?... Demand driven system

23. Modelling required completions with estimated output from growth Demand driven system …a good start, but the pace must be maintained

24. explored the numbers here, they are important but merely set the context Discussions and issues I look forward to hearing: 1. Balancing growth and quality retention 2. Modes of delivery – is traditional face-to-face sustainable? academic staffing infrastructure 3. Funding ‘blank cheque’ implications ‘Friedman and Lenin’s love child’ 4. Skills needs vs student choice and university provision Implications and issues

25. Further information: Dr. Daniel Edwards edwardsd@acer.edu.au (03) 9277 5475 www.acer.edu.au/highereducation