1. A presentation developed by the National Academy of Sciences based on its report Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2009): www.nas.edu/climatechange. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

2. What is ecology? The study of how living organisms interact with each other and with their environment

3. The Climate is Changing and that is changing environments Temperatures are rising Sea levels are rising The ocean is acidifying Climate change is reflected in water cycle changes and in extreme weather Temperature rise, indicated by color (red=higher rate of increase). Earth’s surface temperature has risen ~1.3˚ F since 1850. Image courtesy of the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere & Ocean, U. of Washington. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

4. Ecological Impacts Living things are intimately connected to their physical surroundings. Ecosystems are affected by changes in: –temperature –rainfall/moisture –pH – salinity (saltiness) – activities & distribution of other species – …many other factors National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

5. What is an ecosystem? All the plant and animal life in a particular environment plus the physical factors that are part of that environment (like sun, soil, water, etc.)

6. Everything is connected to everything else In ecosystems, each living thing is related to many other living things. (Think of food webs). There is a saying in ecology: You can’t do just one thing to the environment. Climate change is an example—one effect causes multiple rippling effects.

7. Ecological Impacts As a result of climate change, species and ecosystems are experiencing changes in: –ranges –timing of biological activity –growth rates –relative abundance of species – cycling of water and nutrients – the risk of disturbance from fire, insects, and invasive species National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

8. Ecological Impacts As a result of climate change, species and ecosystems are experiencing changes in: –ranges –timing of biological activity –growth rates –relative abundance of species – cycling of water and nutrients – the risk of disturbance from fire, insects, and invasive species National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

9. Range Shifts Species are relocating to areas with more tolerable climate conditions. Range shifts particularly threaten species that: –cannot move fast enough –depend on conditions that are becoming more rare (like sea ice) Plant hardiness zone maps, 1990 and 2006. Most zones shifted northward in this period. Map courtesy of the National Arbor Day Foundation. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

10. Ecological Impacts As a result of climate change, species and ecosystems are experiencing changes in: –ranges –timing of biological activity –growth rates –relative abundance of species – cycling of water and nutrients – the risk of disturbance from fire, insects, and invasive species National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

11. Timing of Biological Activity Some seasonal biological activities are happening 15-20 days earlier than several decades ago: –Trees blooming earlier –Migrating birds arriving earlier –Butterflies emerging earlier Changes in timing differ from species to species, so ecological interactions are disrupted. European pied flycatcher chicks are now born later than the caterpillars they eat. Images used under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

12. Global Changes, Local Impacts Although climate change is global, the ecological impacts are often local. What’s happening in your backyard? National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

13. Impacts in the Central U.S. Agricultural Impacts Difficult to pinpoint climate impacts: climate change occurring along with improvements in farming techniques In general, plants may: –Grow faster (increasing yields unless it becomes too warm or crops mature too early) –Be affected by carbon dioxide levels (increased growth for some plants such as soybeans, not for others such as corn) Good information about changes and adaptive practices is essential for farmers National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

14. Impacts in the Central U.S. Migratory Waterways: Drying Up? “Playa lakes” or “Prairie potholes” essential for migrating birds: used for resting, feeding, and mating Climate change, combined with other pressures (irrigation demands, pollution, etc.), may dry up these important waterways Image courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

15. Impacts in Alaska and the Arctic Effects on Ice-Dependent Animals Year-round sea ice shrinking: walruses and other animals challenged to find platforms for nursing and resting Polar bears facing difficult hunting conditions: seals now surfacing in open ocean instead of holes in ice National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

16. Impacts in Alaska and the Arctic Changing Food Chains Increased shrub growth presenting a threat to caribou (wild reindeer) –Shrubs crowding out lichens (a key winter food for caribou) –Shrubs collect snow, causing deep snowdrifts: deep snow makes it hard for caribou to reach lichens hidden beneath National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

17. Impacts in Alaska and the Arctic Feedback Loops: Arctic Warming Faster The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet –As sea ice and seasonal snow cover melts, previously reflective white surfaces converted to darker surfaces (to ocean water or vegetation) –Thawing permafrost releases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, increasing greenhouse gases Rate of warming, indicated by colors (red=higher rate). Image created with data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

18. Impacts in Western Mountains Wildfire, Drought, and Insects: Complex Interactions Climate change increases the risk of fire in areas where decades of total fire suppression have resulted in buildup of dead fuels. Wildfire increasing in frequency, size, season length: –Longer, more intense summer droughts stressing trees –Stressed trees are more susceptible to attacking beetles, which leave standing dead fuels in their wake A wildfire in Bitterroot National Forest, Montana. Image courtesy of John McColgan, USDA Forest Service. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

19. Impacts in Southwestern Deserts Wildfire and Invasive Species Nonnative grasses becoming established in deserts: –Red brome (in the Mojave) –Buffelgrass (in the Sonoran) Grasses transform desert into flammable grassland: fire-adapted grasses re-establish quickly, pushing out native species like Saguaro cactus Spread of grasses not directly a result of climate change, but warming may allow them to further spread in the desert and extend to higher elevations. Image courtesy T. Esque, USGS. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

20. Impacts in Southwestern Deserts The Piñon Pine: Past a Tipping Point Drought in 2000-2003 stressed a large swath of piñons, leaving them susceptible to infestation by pine bark beetles This example shows how a stressful event can trigger dramatic ecological change when an ecosystem is subject to many interacting stresses 20022004 Images courtesy D. Allen, USGS. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

21. The Role of Human Beings Causes of Climate Change It is very likely that most of the climate change in the current era is the result of human activities. –Human activities have increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. –These gases trap heat and cause the Earth to warm. Figure adapted from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group 1 Contribution to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Figure SPM.5. Cambridge University Press. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

22. The Role of Human Beings Rate of Climate Change Climate change in the current era is expected to be extremely rapid compared to transitions in and out of past ice ages. Ecosystems are more vulnerable to changes that happen rapidly. A scientist holding an ice core—a sample taken from polar ice caps or mountain glaciers. Ice cores reveal clues about climate changes in Earth’s past. Image courtesy USGS National Ice Core Laboratory. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

23. The Role of Human Beings Compounding Factors Human activities have many other effects on ecosystems. These effects compound the effects of climate change, making it more difficult for ecosystems to adapt. –Pollution –Habitat fragmentation –Invasive species – Overfishing – Manipulation of water sources – …and much more National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

24. The Role of Human Beings Improving the Outlook Changes in activities at the personal, community, and national levels can affect the rate of future climate change and species’ abilities to adapt. Some of the areas where changes in human activities could help species adapt include: –Approaches to agriculture –Water management practices –Energy sources and use –Transportation –Pollution remediation –Biological conservation –…and much more National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

25. The climate challenge is large and complex. But it is very likely that many people, working from many angles, can help address climate change and its ecological consequences. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

26. Acknowledgments This presentation was developed by the National Academy of Sciences based on its report, Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2009). The report, its companion booklet, and this presentation were produced with support from the United States Geological Survey. Ecological Impacts of Climate Change was authored by the following National Research Council committee: National Research Council Staff ANN REID, Study Director FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Director, Board on Life Sciences ANNE FRANCES JOHNSON, Communications Officer AMANDA CLINE, Senior Program Assistant CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Chair, Carnegie Institution for Science DONALD F. BOESCH, U. of Maryland Center for Environmental Science F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN III, University of Alaska PETER H. GLEICK, Pacific Institute ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland JANE LUBCHENCO, Oregon State University JONATHAN T. OVERPECK, University of Arizona CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas TERRY L. ROOT, Stanford University STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Stanford University Unless otherwise noted, all images in this presentation are © JupiterImages, 2009. These images were purchased for use in this presentation and may not be reproduced without permission from the owner. For more information, visit www.nas.edu/climatechange National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council