1. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Taking the Lead: Demographic Change in San Antonio, Texas and the United States MACRO SA: Big City Economics Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center San Antonio, TX Sept. 27, 2011 Michael E. Cline, Ph.D. Associate Director, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas 1

2. Place PopulationChange 2000 2010Number Percent New York, NY8,008,2788,175,133166,8552.1 Los Angeles, CA3,694,8203,792,62197,8012.6 Chicago, IL2,896,0162,695,598-200,418-6.9 Houston, TX1,953,6312,099,451145,8207.5 Philadelphia, PA1,517,5501,526,0068,4560.6 Phoenix, AZ1,321,0451,445,632124,5879.4 San Antonio, TX1,144,6461,327,407182,76116.0 San Diego, CA1,223,4001,307,40284,0026.9 Dallas, TX1,188,5801,197,8169,2360.8 San Jose, CA894,943945,94250,9995.7 Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171. Population 2000 and 2010 and Population Change 2000-2010 for the Ten Most Populous Incorporated Places in the United States

3. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Percent Population Change by Decade in Texas and the United States, 1900-2010 3

4. Change 2000-2010 State 2000 Population 2010 PopulationNumericPercent United States281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7 Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6 California33,871,64837,253,9563,382,30810.0 Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818,93217.6 Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501,20018.3 North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486,17018.5 Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261,38524.6 Virginia7,078,5158,001,024922,50913.0 Washington5,894,1216,724,540830,41914.1 Colorado4,301,2615,029,196727,93516.9 Nevada1,998,2572,700,551702,29435.1 Ten States in the United States with the Largest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010 Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

5. Change 2000-2010 State 2000 Population 2010 Population NumericPercent United States281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7 Nevada1,998,2572,700,551702,29435.1 Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261,38524.6 Utah2,233,1692,763,885530,71623.8 Idaho1,293,9531,567,582273,62921.1 Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6 North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486,17018.5 Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501,20018.3 Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818,93217.6 Colorado4,301,2615,029,196727,93516.9 South Carolina4,012,0124,625,364613,35215.3 Ten States in the United States with the Largest Percentage Population Increase 2000-2010 Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

6. Regional Population Change as a Proportion of U.S. Population Change, 2000-2010 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Region (2010 Pop in Millions)

7. Regional Population as a Proportion of the Total Population in the United States, 1900 & 1950-2010 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

8. 8

9. Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest Numeric Population Increase Between 2000 and 2010 Change 2000-2010 County20002010NumericPercent Harris County3,400,5784,092,459691,88120.3 Tarrant County1,446,2191,809,034362,81525.1 Bexar County1,392,9311,714,773321,84223.1 Collin County491,675782,341290,66659.1 Fort Bend County354,452585,375230,92365.1 Denton County432,976662,614229,63853.0 Travis County812,2801,024,266211,98626.1 Hidalgo County569,463774,769205,30636.1 Williamson County249,967422,679172,71269.1 Montgomery County293,768455,746161,97855.1 Dallas County2,218,8992,368,139149,2406.7 El Paso County679,622800,647121,02517.8 Bell County237,974310,23572,26130.4 Brazoria County241,767313,16671,39929.5 Cameron County335,227406,22070,99321.2 Hays County97,589157,10759,51861.0 Webb County193,117250,30457,18729.6 Guadalupe County89,023131,53342,51047.8 Brazos County152,415194,85142,43627.8 Galveston County250,158291,30941,15116.5 ________ Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171. Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

10. Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest Percentage Population Increase Between 2000 and 2010 Change 2000-2010 County20002010NumericPercent Rockwall County43,08078,33735,25781.8 Williamson County249,967422,679172,71269.1 Fort Bend County354,452585,375230,92365.1 Hays County97,589157,10759,51861.0 Collin County491,675782,341290,66659.1 Montgomery County293,768455,746161,97855.1 Denton County432,976662,614229,63853.0 Guadalupe County89,023131,53342,51047.8 Kaufman County71,313103,35032,03744.9 Kendall County23,74333,4109,66740.7 Comal County78,021108,47230,45139.0 Hidalgo County569,463774,769205,30636.1 Chambers County26,03135,0969,06534.8 Ellis County111,360149,61038,25034.3 Garza County4,8726,4611,58932.6 Wilson County32,40842,91810,51032.4 Waller County32,66343,20510,54232.3 Parker County88,495116,92728,43232.1 Bell County237,974310,23572,26130.4 Webb County193,117250,30457,18729.6 ________ Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171. Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

11. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 11 Population Change in Counties of the United States, 2000-2010

12. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009 United States Texas ComponentNumeric Change Percent of Total Change Numeric Change Percent of Total Change Total Change25,584,644100.03,930,482100.0 Natural Increase15,875,57962.12,124,12454.0 Net Domestic Migration-------848,70221.6 Net International Migration9,709,06537.9957,65624.4 Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census. 12

14. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Race/Ethnicity as a Percent of the Total Population in Texas, 2000 and 2010

15. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 15 Numeric Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and the United States, 2000 - 2010

16. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 16 Change Percent of Population Race Ethnicity20002010NumericPercent20002010 NH White (Anglo)10,933,31311,397,345464,0324.252.445.3 Hispanic6,669,6669,460,9212,791,25541.832.037.6 NH Black2,364,2552,886,825522,57022.111.311.5 NH American Indian68,85980,58611,72717.00.3 NH Asian554,445948,426393,98171.12.73.8 NH Hawaiian/Pacific Isldr.10,75717,9207,16366.60.1 NH Some Other Race19,95833,98014,02270.30.1 NH Two or More Races230,567319,55888,99138.61.11.3 Total20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6100.0 ________ Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171. *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (non-Hispanic White[Anglo], non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic American Indian, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic Some Other Race, non-Hispanic Two or More Races). Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas, 2000 and 2010

17. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 17 Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Voting Age Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race Ethnicity*20002010NumericPercent20002010 NH White(Anglo)8,426,1669,074,684648,5187.756.349.6 Hispanic4,282,9016,143,1441,860,24343.428.633.6 NH Black1,631,4482,076,282444,83427.310.911.4 NH American Indian51,54061,85610,31620.00.3 NH Asian415,219716,968301,74972.72.83.9 NH Hawaiian/Pacific Isldr.7,57512,9125,33770.50.1 NH Some Other Race11,49721,2059,70884.40.1 NH Two or More Races138,715172,68633,97124.50.9 Total14,965,06118,279,7373,314,67622.1100.0 ________ Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171. *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (non-Hispanic White[Anglo], non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic American Indian, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic Some Other Race, non-Hispanic Two or More Races).

18. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 18 Change Percent of Population Race 20002010Numeric Percen t 20002010 Ethnicity* NH White(Anglo)2,507,1472,322,661-184,486-7.442.633.8 Hispanic2,386,7653,317,777931,0123940.548.3 NH Black732,807810,54377,73610.612.411.8 NH American Indian17,31918,7301,4118.10.3 NH Asian139,226231,45892,23266.22.43.4 NH Hawaiian/Pacific Isldr.3,1825,0081,82657.40.1 NH Some Other Race8,46112,7754,314510.10.2 NH Two or More Races91,852146,87255,02059.91.62.1 Total5,886,7596,865,824979,06516.6100 ________ Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171. *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (non-Hispanic White[Anglo], non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic American Indian, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic Some Other Race, non-Hispanic Two or More Races). Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Childhood Population (< Age 18) by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas, 2000 and 2010

19. *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171 Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity*20002010NumericPercent Percent of Total Change20002010 NH White194,552,774196,817,5522,264,7781.28.369.163.7 Hispanic (All Races)35,305,81850,477,59415,171,77643.055.512.516.3 NH Black33,947,83737,685,8483,738,01111.013.712.112.2 NH Asian10,123,16914,465,1244,341,95542.915.93.64.7 NH Other7,492,3089,299,4201,807,11224.16.62.73.0 Total281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7100.0

20. *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171 Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population 18 and Older by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity*20002010NumericPercent Percent of Total Change20002010 NH White150,525,687157,100,9906,575,3034.425.972.067.0 Hispanic (All Races)22,963,55933,346,70310,383,14445.240.811.014.2 NH Black23,337,57327,323,6653,986,09217.115.711.211.6 NH Asian7,702,89511,288,9953,586,10046.614.13.74.8 NH Other4,598,3805,503,718905,33819.73.62.22.3 Total209,128,094234,564,07125,435,97712.2100.0

21. *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171 Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity*20002010NumericPercent Percent of Total Change20002010 NH White44,027,08739,716,562-4,310,525-9.8-228.460.953.5 Hispanic (All Races)12,342,25917,130,8914,788,63238.8253.717.123.1 NH Black10,610,26410,362,183-248,081-2.3-13.114.714.0 NH Asian2,420,2743,176,129755,85531.240.03.34.3 NH Other2,893,9283,795,702901,77431.247.84.05.1 Total72,293,81274,181,4671,887,6552.6100.0

27. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 27 Numeric Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and the United States (Childhood Population), 2000 - 2010

28. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Race/Ethnicity by Age for the Population in Texas, 2010 28

29. Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

30. Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions) Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

31. Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

32. Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

33. Projected Population in the United States, 2050 and Texas Population, 2010 by Race/Ethnicity Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

34. Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

35. Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

36. Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

37. Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

38. Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

39. Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

40. Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

41. Educational Attainment for the United States Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Race Ethnicity Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White139,695,3589.329.330.031.4 Black23,530,64618.131.732.317.9 Hispanic*27,313,99637.826.522.713.0 Asian9,964,40414.616.019.649.9 Total204,288,93314.428.528.928.2 ________ Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2010. *Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

42. Educational Attainment for the Texas Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Race Ethnicity Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White8,099,0538.025.332.634.1 Black1,788,22313.930.336.219.6 Hispanic*5,063,77940.425.822.211.6 Asian639,96714.415.218.651.8 Total Population15,772,12219.325.629.225.9 ________ Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2010. Note: Due to size, some groups are excluded. *Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

43. Educational Attainment for the San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Race Ethnicity Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White563,0816.221.833.838.2 Black85,02011.223.041.224.6 Hispanic*662,34428.429.628.713.4 AsianNA Total Population1,354,47417.525.531.625.4 ________ Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2010. Note: Due to size, some groups are excluded. *Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

44. Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*

45. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

46. Projections of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000 to 2040 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

47. Percent Change in Projected Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000-2040 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

48. Projections of the Percent of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000-2040 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

49. Number and percent of Net Change in the Civilian Labor Force in Texas Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group, Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

50. Projected 2040 Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Source: Texas State Data Center at UTSA, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario

51. Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

52. Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

53. Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars)

54. Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040

55. Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040* *Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario $251 $621 $765 $938 $210 $528 $629 $752 2000 Base Values 2040 Assuming 2000 Attainment Differentials 2040 Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Differentials 2040 Assuming Anglo Trends Apply to all Groups $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 Billions Aggregate IncomeConsumer Expenditures Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

56. Latinos Non- Latino Whites Non- Latino Blacks Healthcare151320 Poverty101211 Education211715 Immigration1131 National Defense92114 Other Issues333138 Source: Pew Hispanic Center 2002 National Survey of Latinos One half sample; n=2108 Percent Indicating Listed Factor as Among the Two Most Important Issues for the Government to Address Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

57. Advice to new legislators: Spend every nickel you can on education. Every nickel you don't spend now will cost dollars in the future for welfare and prisons. Then go home. Please don't pass any more laws. --Former Lt. Governor William P. Hobby, Jr.

58. Sources U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov):www.census.gov – The American Community Survey – Decennial Censuses (primarily 2000 and 2010) – Population Estimates – Population Projections Texas State Data Center: (http://txsdc.utsa.ed u)http://txsdc.utsa.ed u – Population Estimates – Population Projections The New Texas Challenge (2003) by Steve H. Murdock, et al. The Pew Hispanic Research Center Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

59. Happy Trails to You! Mike Cline Associate Director, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas http://hobbycenter.rice.edu Phone: 713-348-5396 E-mail: mec6@rice.edu