1. Famine Early Warning Systems Network February 2, 2016 FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF THE 2015-16 EL NIÑO

2. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK1 Key Messages  A strong El Niño has resulted in severe drought in Central America, the Caribbean, Ethiopia, and southern Africa. This event comes on top of other ongoing large-scale emergencies (Yemen, South Sudan, Nigeria, and Syria).  In countries covered by FEWS NET ~38 million people will require emergency food assistance during FY16. This reflects a 30% increase compared to FEWS NET’s estimates for FY15.  More than half of the countries FEWS NET covers, and roughly 30% of the population in need during FY16 have been directly affected by El Niño-related climate impacts. The major impacts of the drought in Southern Africa will not be felt until FY17.  Though the 2015/16 droughts are some of the worst on record, famine-level mortality is very unlikely given improved safety nets, lack of conflict in the affected areas, and improved information and early warning analysis.  There is at least a 50% chance of a transition to La Niña in 2016, increasing the likelihood of drought in the Horn of Africa during late 2016.  FEWS NET focuses on food security impacts; water/health, broader socio-economic impacts and developmental losses also must be considered.

3. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK2 El Niño impacts on rainfall October 2015 – March 2016 (Forecast) June – September 2015 (Observed)

4. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK3 Estimated FY16 emergency food assistance needs FY16: ~38 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse in FEWS NET countries Assistance needs are +30% vs. FY15 Half of FEWS NET countries and ~30% of food insecure households are directly impacted by El Nino ■ ■ ■ ■ Large-scale food security crises not related to El Nino

5. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK4 ETHIOPIA

6. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK5 FEWS NET analytical process  Regular visits by FEWS NET staff to areas of concern  HEA outcome analysis covering ~100 livelihood zones in Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and SNNPR  8 month outlook to be released in February  Representative household surveys in three zones planned for March/April

7. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK6 ETHIOPIA Mar-Sep 2015 rainfall as a % of normal Source: FEWS NET/USGS CHIRPS

8. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK7 ETHIOPIA: Estimated food security outcomes, Jan-Mar 2016 Source: FEWS NET

9. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK8 Surface water availability per capita as a % of the 1981-2014 average Main season maize crop production compared to the baseline year Source: FEWS NET/USGS WRSISource: FEWS NET/NASA

10. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK9 Other key assumptions  Sharp declines in the availability of labor opportunities.  Limited coping capacity compared to the baseline year.  Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) o Delivery of 6 months of transfer to ~8 million beneficiaries o Utilization of a 16% contingency to expand PSNP caseload  Generally stable livestock prices, wages in agropastoral areas.  Normal Belg and Kiremt rainfall in 2016. Some risk of continued dryness in northern pastoral areas.

11. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK10 % of households facing a deficit according to HEA outcome analysis Source: FEWS NET

12. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK11 Issues related to response  Ethiopia appeal: 46% funded, 34% for food sector (OCHA, 1/30)  pipeline break anticipated in April.  Port functioning: Djibouti problematic; WFP already moving food through Berbera, planning to use Port Sudan  Non-food needs: Water availability expected to be very problematic, large MAM/SAM caseload likely.

13. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK12 SOUTHERN AFRICA

14. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK13 2015 maize production levels were poor Botswana Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia South Africa Swaziland Zambia Zimbabwe Regional  2015 maize production levels compared to the five-year average Source: FEWS NET calculations with data from SADC and government ministries

15. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK14 Current regional maize grain stocks are below average Private Gov’t and institutional Household Madagascar  /  Malawi   Mozambique   South Africa **  /  *  Zambia  Zimbabwe  * Imports from international markets have helped to fill gaps. Source: FEWS NET and SAGIS Maize price compared to the 5-year average Grain stocks compared to average Source: FEWS NET and SAGIS

16. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK15 Source: FEWS NET/NOAA ARC2 Areas affected by drought in Southern Africa, November 1, 2015 - January 31, 2016

17. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK16 Below-average rains forecasted for coming months NMME Precipitation Standard Anomalies: Feb – Apr 2016 Source: NOAA Probability of rainfall <lower tercile Feb – Apr 2016 Source: ECMWF Probability Forecast for Precipitation, Feb-Apr 2016 Source: IRI

18. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK17 South Africa (late Jan): Fallow field in surplus producing area Zambia (Jan 13th): Wilted maize, Sesheke Zimbabwe (Jan): Stunted maize crop Mozambique (Jan): Cattle in Maputo province

19. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK18 High risk of price shocks during 16/17 consumption year  Regional maize deficit expected for a 2 nd consecutive year o Supplies for 2016/17 year expected to be significantly below average o International imports unlikely to fully offset gap o Currency issues and port capacity may constrain imports  Intraregional trade o SA will continue to export to traditionally grain deficit countries though export levels will likely be below average. o Zambia’s role as regional supplier expected to be significantly lower last year. Katanga Province in DRC, among other areas, is likely to be affected o Concerns about MW and ZW capacity to import  Areas where price shock risk is highest o Malawi, southern and central Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, Katanga Province (DRC)

20. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK19 Food insecure population projections  Regional food security crisis likely to be worst since 2002/03.  Currently 2.5 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Southern Africa (Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Lesotho).  Conservatively, the size of the IPC 3+ population could double compared to previous levels, peaking between December 2016 and February 2017. SOUTHERN AFRICA: Estimated food security outcomes, Jan-Mar 2016 Source: FEWS NET

21. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK20 Other areas affected by El Nino EAST AFRICA: Mar-Sep 2015 rainfall as a % of normal Source: FEWS NET/USGS CENTRAL AMERICA/HAITI: Jan – Sep 2015 drought rank Source: FEWS NET/USGS

22. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK21 Global staple food availability likely to remain near average Source: FEWS NET

23. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK22 A transition to a La Nina is possible in 2016 Typical La Niña impacts on rainfall Source: FEWS NET/NOAA/USGS

24. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK23 Key Messages  A strong El Niño has resulted in severe drought in Central America, the Caribbean, Ethiopia, and southern Africa. This event comes on top of other ongoing large-scale emergencies (Yemen, South Sudan, Nigeria, and Syria).  In countries covered by FEWS NET ~38 million people will require emergency food assistance during FY16. This reflects a 30% increase compared to FEWS NET’s estimates for FY15.  More than half of the countries FEWS NET covers, and roughly 30% of the population in need during FY16 have been directly affected by El Niño-related climate impacts. The major impacts of the drought in Southern Africa will not be felt until FY17.  Though the 2015/16 droughts are some of the worst on record, famine-level mortality is very unlikely given improved safety nets, lack of conflict in the affected areas, and improved information and early warning analysis.  There is at least a 50% chance of a transition to La Niña in 2016, increasing the likelihood of drought in the Horn of Africa during late 2016.  FEWS NET focuses on food security impacts; water/health, broader socio-economic impacts and developmental losses also must be considered.

25. __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK24 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) PHASE 1 Minimal Households are meeting their basic food and nonfood needs without unsustainable coping strategies. PHASE 2 Stressed Household food consumption is minimally adequate. Households are unable to afford some essential nonfood expenditures without unsustainable coping strategies. PHASE 3 Crisis Households face food consumption gaps or are only meeting minimal food needs through unsustainable coping strategies. URGENT ACTION REQUIRED PHASE 4 Emergency Households face extreme food consumption gaps or are experiencing extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption gaps. PHASE 5 Famine Households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs. Starvation, death, and destitution are evident. ! Phase classification would likely be worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.