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Enhancing Resilience in the Horn of Africa CTA Brussels Briefing Brussels, March 4, 2013 Jean-François Maystadt International Food Policy Research Institute.

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Presentation on theme: "Enhancing Resilience in the Horn of Africa CTA Brussels Briefing Brussels, March 4, 2013 Jean-François Maystadt International Food Policy Research Institute."— Presentation transcript:

1 Enhancing Resilience in the Horn of Africa CTA Brussels Briefing Brussels, March 4, 2013 Jean-François Maystadt International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Center for Institutions and Economic Performance (LICOS)

2 (+) Traditional coping strategies (e.g. mobility) (+) Livestock sector is a source of current wealth and a sector with potential added value (e.g. exports to the Middle East) (-) More severe and frequent shocks and stress (on limited amount of water) (-) Restricted mobility due to a mix of population growth, fragmentation of grazing lands and insecurity (-) Conflict, poor governance, price volatility and lack of long-term donor commitment (-) Pastoralist populations in ASAL regions often politically and economically neglected in terms of public investment 2011 drought: Relief efforts have saved lifes but have not sufficiently increased the capacity to withstand future shocks and stresses Lack of resilience in the Horn? Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP. Forthcoming in World Development.

3 Vicious cycle of violence? Source: DFID(2012).Source: Maystadt et al. (2013), based on ACLED (2012). Violence in Somalia, Estimated food security conditions, 9/2011

4 Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming. Vicious cycle in Somalia

5 Source: Maystadt,, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming. Vicious cycle in Somalia (and Sudan) Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia Specific channel: drought-induced economic shocks on the livestock sector and resulting income changes Link between extreme weather shocks and violence also found in North and South Sudan (work in progress) … Risk of violence is likely to magnify in the future … Unless urgent action to enhance resilience to shocks is taken

6  Investment in pastoralist activities:  Improved livestock resilience to drought: adoption of drought-resistant animals, veterinary health services, emergency feed, and better access to water but without disturbing the (well-functing) livestock value chain  Help de-stocking and re-stocking through improved access to markets, insurance and credit markets, weather insurance schemes  Support income diversification: Irrigation, Migration and Education  Social Safety Net Program? What can we learn from Safety Net Programmes to enhance resilience in the Horn of Africa? Enhancing resilience through a balanced development strategy Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP. Forthcoming in World Development

7 Between 1993 and 2004, the Government of Ethiopia launched near- annual emergency appeals for food aid and other forms of emergency assistance. These succeeded in averting mass starvation but: – They did not banish the threat of further famine; – They did not prevent asset depletion; and – The ad hoc nature of these responses meant that the provision of emergency assistance—often in the form of food-for-work programmes—was not integrated into ongoing economic development activities. In other words, these responses did not build resilience Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme (PSNP)

8 PSNP began operating in 2005 (until 2014) – Reaches approximately one million households; 7 million people annually – EU is a major donor along with the USAID, World Bank, DfID, and a number of other countries The PSNP “provides transfers to the food insecure population in chronically food insecure woredas in a way that prevents asset depletion at the household level and creates assets at the community level” – It provides recipient with public works – It also seeks to stimulate market development and rehabilitate the natural environment The PSNP is complemented by a program (now) called the “Household Asset Building Programme” (HABP) – Increased contact and coordination with agricultural extension services – Improved access to credit Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme (PSNP)

9 Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme: Impact on food security Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

10 Building resilience: Change in food security for households experiencing 2+ droughts Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

11 Building resilience: Change in livestock for households experiencing 2+ droughts Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

12 Building resilience at the household level Change in food securityChange in livestock Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

13 Builds resilience at: – Government and governance – Natural resource management – Household Impacts are larger when combined with the HABP. Why? – Transfers provide both a safety net and working capital – HABP provides technical expertise Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme:


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