1. Click to edit Master subtitle style 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 SAAEA Comments on the RSA RE Windows South African Alternative Energy Association To the Portfolio Committee on Energy By David Lipschitz, on behalf of SAAEA 7th June 2012 Phone: 021 813 9895; 082 900 5903 david@mypowerstation.bizdavid@mypowerstation.biz; skype: MyPowerStation (c) My Power Station Technology cc 2012 Permission is given to copy parts of this presentation as long as the author is acknowledged 11

2. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 This Presentation Not much time, so focusing on PV SAAEA would like to thank Government for its implementation of the 2003 White Paper on Renewable Energy “Government should create an enabling environment through the introduction of fiscal and financial support mechanisms within an appropriate legal and regulatory framework, to allow renewable energy technologies to compete with fossil-based technologies.” (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 22

3. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Agenda Pause and Reflect. Spaceship Earth. Sunny Resources The Fossilized Fuel Industry. How long do we have? Electricity: an enabler; BRICS: sustainable growth Citizens Electricity Challenges Exponential Growth Grid Parity Financing Projects: Existing or New Money? Observations re the Renewable Energy Procurement Tender process (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 33

4. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 P a u s e & R e f l e c t (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 44

5. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Global Energy Resources (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 55 30 TWH in 2030 10 TWH in 1990

6. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 How long do we have? At 3% electricity consumption growth (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 66

7. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 What’s electricity for anyway? It’s like ICT, except ICT depends on Electricity It’s an enabler to get the country moving Fast, cheap, reliable pathways from a to b will get our economy going – Communications (Infrastructure) – Electricity, Population Growth, Resources David Murrin: “Breaking the Code of History” Can the “Energy Internet” finally happen? – Thomas Friedman in “Hot, Flat and Crowded” (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 77

8. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa Page 69: NPC Report: “Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Russia will account for more than half of all global growth, growing by an average of 4.7% a year to 2025, by which time their share of global GDP will have grown from 36% to 45%.” – My Comment: It is time for South Africa and Africa to shed its association with its colonial masters, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Spain, and the USA, which are part of the dying Western Empire, and change to a much closer association with the Asian Tigers, BRICS (China (9.5%) ), Indonesia, South Korea, and of-course the African Tigers: Ghana (13.5%) (2nd highest), Mozambique (7.2%), Ethiopia (7.5%), Nigeria (6.9%), Botswana (6.2%), South Africa (3.4%). 36 African countries growing faster than the RSA. – Qatar (18.7%), India (7.8%), Russia (4.3%), Brazil (2.8%), Germany (2.7%), USA (1.5%), UK (1.1%), Portugal (-2-2%), Greece (-6%)] – Growth rates in % are net growth after inflation. (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 88

9. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Electricity Challenges For City Dwellers without electricity, NO: – Water, Banking, Petrol, Transport, Food, Life – Only 4 days of food in the supply chain Everything we do depends on electricity – We need security of supply – We need price certainty So, how do we: – Create security of supply? Quickly? – How do we start reducing prices? Quickly? (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 99

10. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Photovoltaic & Grid Tie Inverter Electricity = Electronic (ICT) Electricity = The Energy Internet (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 1010 Riverside Renewable Energy, Holt Logistics Gloucester Marine Terminal, New Jersey, USA 9MW Roof Top PV, $42m, ~ 110,000 square meters

11. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Our Environment Photovoltaic (PV) Production (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 1111

12. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Buying and Producing Electricity Graph in Rand per kwh (c) My Power Station Technology 2012

13. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Fix your price and save (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 1313

14. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Existing or New Money? New Large Scale Power Stations require – New Money New Small Scale Power Stations use – Existing Money Homeowner and SMME pays R1.32 per kWh for buying electricity and for producing it! Net Metering is an enabler – With a Wheeling (Reverse Feed) Tariff – Without a Service Fee Buy electricity at R1.32 per kWh; Sell at R1.16 per kWh (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 1414

15. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 R2.3 trillion R2,300,000,000,000 Repayments – At 10% over 20 years – R23,000,000,000 per month R23 billion per month is what the people of South Africa will be paying for their new electricity fleet if we follow the old 20th Century technology path – 50 million people; 7 million taxpayers R3,285 per taxpayer per month – for capex repayments only (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 1515

16. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Portfolio Committee on Energy We’ve shown the – Energy Public Meeting (EPM) – Possibilities re entry and prospects of growth of Renewable Energy in SA from business perspective (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 1616

17. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 SAAEA Observations re Tenders Window 1 & Window 2 – 1,450 MW available – 1,048 MW allocated for IPPs – 402 MW available for Under 1 MW systems? Homeowners SMME’s Ref: http://www.ipp-renewables.co.za/index.php/press/detail/preferred-bidders-window-1http://www.ipp-renewables.co.za/index.php/press/detail/preferred-bidders-window-1 http://www.ipp-renewables.co.za/index.php/press/detail/preferred-bidders-window-2 http://www.evwind.es/noticias.php?id_not=18891 (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 1717

18. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Speed to Market (1) Tender – Big Barriers to entry. Keep the locals out! – Slow Eskom overload. Taking Eskom’s planners’ eye “off the ball” – Failed in the UK, which changed to FITs – Not everyone is awarded a contract – Not transparent. Why did some get it & others not? FIT Feed In Tariff – Fast – Same price for everyone. No favourites. Net Metering (402 MW available for Under 1 MW systems?) – Fastest & Cheapest – Homeowners and SMME’s pay (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 1818

19. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Speed to Market (2) Financing Net Metering – No public finance required! No government debt! – Allow homeowners and SMME’s to buy ex VAT and before tax – Banks should offer bonds at homeowner’s rate less 1%, eg Prime – 3%. Bank collects the carbon credits. – Eskom’s announcement on 5th June 2012 re paying R1.20 per kWh (plus VAT) for electricity removed from the grid at Standard Time (6am to 10pm) is welcome and a step in the right direction but why is there a minimum 10 kW entry point? (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 1919

20. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 The Big Energy Myth From Dr Hermann Scheer’s Book “The Solar Economy” pp 169 to 170 – “Once the fear of the small scale has been dispelled, once RE has demonstrated that it can replace fossil energy in its entirety, then the aura of the centralised nuclear/fossil industry will quickly fade. – Ordinary people are caught up in the myth of big technology … We need an active and engaged society” – Trevor Manuel & the National Planning Commission calls for an active and engaged society (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 2020

21. 6/8/12(c) My Power Station Technology 2012 Contacts David Lipschitz, My Power Station – 021 813 9895; 082 900 5903 – david@mypowerstation.biz david@mypowerstation.biz Alwyn Smith, SAAEA – 071 637 8466 – alwyn@saaea.org alwyn@saaea.org (c) My Power Station Technology 2012 2121