1. Peak Oil & Global Sustainability Strategies David Bell Sydney Convenor ASPO Australia

2. Business as Usual is Over Every week there is a crisis Energy crisis is under the radar but it is there Financial crises can be fixed with dollars unlike an energy crisis Google energy shortages or fuel shortages in news around the world Car & Airline Industry fighting for their survival US$70 oil is still high & markets are still tight Economists cannot predict what the ASX will be at end of the year. In July 08 one predicts 6500

3. Energy is the New Currency USD is a currency backed by oil OPEC producers are tied to USD US imports 15 million barrels of oil a day Rising prices make petrodollar recycling and trade balances worse Oil producers cannot invest cash in US banking and financial system except T Bills Russia’s Georgian conquest was about asserting control over energy flows Food prices have also risen-food is energy

4. Nigeria’s Offshore Platform Bonga attacked in June 2008 120 kms off Nigerian Coast MEND now can go offshore

5. Daily Prices in USD- Year to Year

6. Daily Prices in USD

7. Average Prices in USD 2004-2008 Source: EIA Data & CIBC World Markets

8. Are we at Peak Yet?

9. World Net Exports Top 20 Oil exporters –93% of all exporters

10. 2012- Mexico No Longer Exports to US

11. Future World Net Exports

12. CIBC World Markets Forecast

13. What is this telling us? Oil demand will occur in Brazil, Russia, India & China (BRIC’s) at expense of OECD China - 4 million new vehicles a year US - 3 million vehicles off the road by 2010

14. Australia is running a Petroleum Deficit- adds to Foreign Debt

15. Competition for remaining oil could get nasty

16. One way to Avoid Previous Slide Fair allocations for remaining supplies Countries work together to solve problem Collapse of systems is averted Everyone agrees to consume less

17. This involves a paradigm shift Current situation is unsustainable Financial Markets crashing is proof we have problems Current OECD World cannot handle US$140 oil Consumers to conservers and producers Passenger numbers on Public transport up! Change is already happening

18. No Silver Bullets only Silver Buckshot ELP- Economise, Localise & Produce Grow food locally Rail not roads Ship goods by water Pay people for productivity not hours Small is the new big Smart urban design is essential Technology will not save us we need strategies

19. The World is not Flat! High Oil changes long supply lines Source: CIBC World Markets

20. Small is the new big Horizons shrink The best energy to find is conservation Conservation starts with shortening supply lines Energy and food production comes home We rebuild local communities Co-operation and pooling of resources

21. A new currency for a new era? “We have it in our power to build the world anew”. Thomas Paine

22. Why a Local Currency? To build resilience in the local economy by keeping money circulating in the community and building new relationships To get people thinking and talking about how they spend their money To encourage more local trade and thus reduce food and trade miles To encourage tourists to use local businesses (source: Totnes Pound Project)

23. Role of Engineers in PO Economy Develop low energy solutions – Peak Oil & Global Warming Teaching and retraining of service industry workforce Creative reuse of resources Engineers understand energy and numbers EROEI is key to the future Bringing back rail Measure energy used in communities Building new energy infrastructure

24. This is no longer acceptable rCrrCr

25. PO Engineers at Work

26. Is this safe?

27. Answer: Consult an Engineer

28. Thank You www.aspo-australia.org.au Email dbell2100@gmail.comdbell2100@gmail.com

29. US Crude Oil

30. US Gasoline