Presentation on theme: "Is Asia the next growth engine? Probably, but not if rest of world doesn’t help. One region drags others down, e.g., euro banking problems. IMF: Growth."— Presentation transcript:
Is Asia the next growth engine? Probably, but not if rest of world doesn’t help. One region drags others down, e.g., euro banking problems. IMF: Growth rates in developing economies 5.75% in , lower because of euro problems. Asia still most rapidly growing: 7% plus, says IMF.
Global economy is slowing Source: World Bank, January 2012
Developed economies fall behind
Trade volume is still large Source: Standard Chartered Bank, 2012
“G7” vs. “E7” U.S. Japan Germany U.K. France Italy Canada Spain Australia South Korea Brazil Russia India Indonesia China Mexico Turkey South Africa Argentina Saudi Arabia Nigeria Vietnam PWC, The World in 2050, January 2011
What could go wrong? Climate collapse. Wars, civil and international. Repeated global financial crises. Domestic policy failures. Godzilla returns. Mayan calendar apocalypse. Comet smashes into Earth. All the stuff in the WEF chart.
What needs to go right? Fiscal imbalances corrected. Liquidity, but short of inflation. Orderly growth of middle class in developing countries. Maintenance of middle class in developed countries. Banks deleverage, build capital. International political, financial systems better coordinated.
Balancing the imbalances Debtor nations need to save more. U.S., Spain, Australia, Brazil. Saver nations need to spend more. China, Japan, Germany, Saudi Arabia. Developed vs. developing in these groups. Will U.S. start saving? Can China start spending?
Banks need to recapitalize
Markets not taking on debt
Governments need to shed debt
U.S., Japan, Euro area debt
Deficits: the mirror image
U.S. money supply soars
U.S. trade balance sucks
Investment drives China economy Source: Eurasia Group
Not so much in India Source: World Bank
China, fast and slow Source: Eurasia Group
A little inflation?
HSBC’s take on China Lending spree is slowing. Inflation is slowing. Industrial production has slowed. Export growth in single digits. Government can now ease money supply, lower rates. “Soft landing” a success? Consumption still lags, needs to be higher.
India lags behind China Source: World Bank
HSBC’s take on India Economic growth slowing. Government has tightened to fight inflation. Trade balance negative and growing. Government spending too high. High demand to fuel inflation. GDP growth expected to remain below trend.