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Is Asia the next growth engine? Probably, but not if rest of world doesn’t help. One region drags others down, e.g., euro banking problems. IMF: Growth.

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Presentation on theme: "Is Asia the next growth engine? Probably, but not if rest of world doesn’t help. One region drags others down, e.g., euro banking problems. IMF: Growth."— Presentation transcript:

1 Is Asia the next growth engine? Probably, but not if rest of world doesn’t help. One region drags others down, e.g., euro banking problems. IMF: Growth rates in developing economies 5.75% in , lower because of euro problems. Asia still most rapidly growing: 7% plus, says IMF.

2 Global economy is slowing Source: World Bank, January 2012

3 Developed economies fall behind

4 Trade volume is still large Source: Standard Chartered Bank, 2012

5 “G7” vs. “E7” U.S. Japan Germany U.K. France Italy Canada Spain Australia South Korea Brazil Russia India Indonesia China Mexico Turkey South Africa Argentina Saudi Arabia Nigeria Vietnam PWC, The World in 2050, January 2011

6 E7 will dominate?

7 E7 to pass G7 in 2032?

8 China passes U.S. in 2032?

9 India becomes No. 3

10 GDP rankings, 2009 & 2050 U.S., $12.3 trillion Japan, $ 5.1 trillion China, $ 4.9 trillion Germany, $ 3.4 trillion France, $ 2.7 trillion U.K., $ 2.2 trillion Italy, $ 2.1 trillion Brazil, $ 1.6 trillion Spain, $ 1.5 trillion Canada, $ 1.4 trillion China, $51.2 trillion U.S., $37.9 trillion India, $31.3 trillion Brazil, $ 9.2 trillion Japan, $ 7.7 trillion Russia, $ 6.1 trillion Mexico, $ 5.8 trillion Germany, $ 5.7 trillion U.K., $ 5.6 trillion Indonesia, $ 5.4 trillion Constant 2009 dollars at market exchange rate. Source: PWC.

11 What could go wrong? Climate collapse. Wars, civil and international. Repeated global financial crises. Domestic policy failures. Godzilla returns. Mayan calendar apocalypse. Comet smashes into Earth. All the stuff in the WEF chart.

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13 What needs to go right? Fiscal imbalances corrected. Liquidity, but short of inflation. Orderly growth of middle class in developing countries. Maintenance of middle class in developed countries. Banks deleverage, build capital. International political, financial systems better coordinated.

14 Balancing the imbalances Debtor nations need to save more. U.S., Spain, Australia, Brazil. Saver nations need to spend more. China, Japan, Germany, Saudi Arabia. Developed vs. developing in these groups. Will U.S. start saving? Can China start spending?

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16 Banks need to recapitalize

17 Markets not taking on debt

18 Governments need to shed debt

19 U.S., Japan, Euro area debt

20 Deficits: the mirror image

21 U.S. money supply soars

22 U.S. trade balance sucks

23 Investment drives China economy Source: Eurasia Group

24 Not so much in India Source: World Bank

25 China, fast and slow Source: Eurasia Group

26 A little inflation?

27 HSBC’s take on China Lending spree is slowing. Inflation is slowing. Industrial production has slowed. Export growth in single digits. Government can now ease money supply, lower rates. “Soft landing” a success? Consumption still lags, needs to be higher.

28 India lags behind China Source: World Bank

29 HSBC’s take on India Economic growth slowing. Government has tightened to fight inflation. Trade balance negative and growing. Government spending too high. High demand to fuel inflation. GDP growth expected to remain below trend.

30 Learning to consume?

31 Welcome to the middle class Source: OECD

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