1. Requirement Estimation
Presented By:
Tina M. Underhill, BABOK Contributor
VP Marketing & Communication Nominee
IIBA Greater Boston Chapter

2. Agenda About the Speaker Housekeeping Session Overview
BABOK 2.0 Definitions
The BA Role
BA Tasks
BA Activities
BABOK 3.0 Concepts
Wrap Up
Q & A

3. About the Speaker
Tina M. Underhill is a senior-level Business Analyst Consultant with over 25 years of business operations experience within the finance, insurance, and retail industries at such companies as: AT&T, Key Bank, Humana Health Insurance, [FPIC] The Doctors, Bank of America, GM Financial, Express Scripts, Commerce/Mapfre, and TJX.
As an active member of the International Institute of Business Analysis (IIBA) she is contributing to the BABOK version 3.0 under Solution Assessment & Validation. As an active member of the IIBA Greater Boston Chapter she is a nominee for the VP of Marketing & Communication.
In 2012, she served as a panelist at Project Summit & Business Analyst World in Burlington on Agile Requirements and will be presenting this year about Agile Requirements.
Currently, she is serving as a Principal Business Analysis Consultant with Content Raven, a cloud-based content control solution software company [Agile], as well as serving as a Business Analysis Consultant at Staples’ corporate headquarters in Framingham on the dotcom team [Waterfall/Agile].
She holds multiple AS Degrees from Florida State College in Business and IT disciplines.

4. Housekeeping Respect the conversation – keep your phones on MUTE.
Realize that we won’t solve everything in the session.
Feel free to politely “interrupt” the speaker – if you have a question, make sure it gets captured in the question space.  We may not answer it now (parking lot), but it is best to capture thoughts and questions in the moment they are relevant.
The Parking Lot will be used for questions that cannot be answered, issues or unrelated topics – we will post directives within 48 business hours after the session.

5. Session Overview This session is intended to:
Provide definitions and glossary terms from the BABOK disciplines that are intended to guide the Business Analyst down the right path
Help BAs understand what the process is, what the many tasks and activities that are performed inside the process and what the differences are within a Waterfall and Agile methodologies.
Showcase the Business Analyst’s positive contribution in Requirement Estimation within both the Waterfall and Agile methodologies in both large and small organizations.
How to use real ingenuity to get the right estimation plan into place.

6. Definitions: Business Analysis Body of Knowledge
BABOK version 2.0 defines Requirement Estimation in the following area:
Knowledge Area – Chapter 9: Techniques Estimation (p.70)
This technique is assigned to the following Knowledge Areas in the BOK (v.2):
Knowledge Area – Chapter 2: Business Analysis Planning & Monitoring
Knowledge Area – Chapter 5: Enterprise Analysis
There is a GAP: The BOK does not address how to plan for “construction”.

7. Chapter 9 – Techniques
Section Estimation: Estimating techniques forecast the cost and effort involved in pursuing a course of action.
Good Forecasting
Changes the budget
POSITIVELY
Estimates can help stakeholders make better decisions; but can also have stakeholders “assuming” estimates are commitments!
Prevent a RISK: Ensure the stakeholders know the difference!

8. What is the Business Analyst’s role?
SMALL Or
LARGE
Insurance
Retail
Finance
Enterprise:
Size
Culture
Industry
Location IT Or
Business
Onsite Vs
Offsite
In a small Enterprise: resource pool dictates role. While in a larger Enterprise, tasks can vary dependent on the set of responsibilities assigned including: facilitation, documentation tasks, identifying gaps, presenting alternatives, negotiating, directing groups, presenting plans, improving processes, dictating solution plans, ensuring strategic imperatives are aligned and that the culture is prepared.
If the BA is IT Focused tasks are done “systematically” to implement change while in a Business focused culture, the BA “dives” into the details of how a requirement might actually be implemented in the enterprise.
Focus is on compliance.
The Insurance BA has focus on compliance and they must tie “most” changes to regulations and ensure those regulations are not impacted negatively by change. The Retail BA has focus on sales and they must tie “most” changes to buying opportunities. The Finance BA has focus is on the “bottom line”.
The BA must tie “most” changes to stocks, rates, etc.

9. What is the Process?

10. Who is in the Process?
Update to add the OTHERs and change the Circle to Estimation

11. Estimation Methods – the How
Definition
When to Use
Analogous
Agile
A “top-down” approach performed at the beginning of a project/phase with more estimates performed when more is known.
When there is little known.
Parametric
Waterfall
Parameters are used along with how many there will be. For example:
one use case = 20 hours,
10 cases x 20 hours = 200 hours.
When there is enough history available to be used as a basis of comparison.
Bottom-up
Includes deliverables, activities, tasks, and estimates from stakeholders. These are then rolled up to get a total for all activities and tasks. It is more granular.
When you want to produce the most accurate and defensible estimates.
Rolling wave
This involves refining of the initial estimates for all the activities so the estimates for the next iteration can be made.
When the end of an iteration approaches.
Three-point
Uses scenarios in these three stages: most optimistic, most pessimistic, and most likely estimates.
When Use Cases are used versus granular requirements.
Historic
Uses “history” as the basis. Similar to analogous but not used for just top-down estimation.
When there are detailed tasks and there are prior project records.
Expert Judgment
Relies on the expertise of those who have done the work in the past.
When the same resources are available or the resource has a principal level of knowledge.
Delphi
Uses a combination of expert judgment and history estimation techniques. They include: individual estimates, sharing the estimates with experts, and having several rounds until consensus is reached and then using the average.
When an average can be derived by taking the optimistic, pessimistic and 4x the most likely, then dividing by 6.

12. Analogous vs Parametric
Business Case: Annual 5k road race, that has three primary components: marketing, registration, and race-day coordination.  Marketing: flyers are needed to be printed up at a cost $0.20 each.  Details: It took two weeks for the flyers to be printed for last year Registration: Design an on-line registration form and the cost to host on the website.
Details: Last year it took one week to design and the cost to host the registration website was $ Coordination: There are four people used to coordinate the race.
Details: Each resource will be paid $25 per hour and they will be working an estimated seven hours, based on the race last year. 
Analogous
Parametric
How long will this take for the Marketing materials?
How much will the Marketing cost?
How much will the Coordination cost?
How much will the Registration cost to host?
How long will the Registration take?
How long will this take to Coordinate?
Summary: Both of these methods can be used for duration and cost because of historical info and expert judgment. The difference is that analogous is less accurate.

13. Bottom-Up Task 1: Determine actual cost of flyers
Business Case: Annual 5k road race, that has three primary components: marketing, registration, and race-day coordination.  Marketing: flyers are needed to be printed up at a cost $0.20 each.  Details: It took two weeks for the flyers to be printed for last year Registration: Design an on-line registration form and the cost to host on the website.
Details: Last year it took one week to design and the cost to host the registration website was $ Coordination: There are four people used to coordinate the race.
Details: Each resource will be paid $25 per hour and they will be working an estimated seven hours, based on the race last year. 
Task 1: Determine actual cost of flyers
Task 2: Get estimates from three printers
Task 3: Get actual costs
What other tasks would we perform for this granular estimate?
Summary:  This is a detailed assessment of the resources, capabilities, and amounts are used to determine an accurate duration or cost estimate. 

14. Three-Point Task 1: Determine the best-case estimate
Project: Introduction of a three-tiered Customer Service Resolution Center
Details: Three-tiers include: Routine Questions; Medium Questions, Complex/Supervisory Questions
Resolution Times: Routine Questions take 1-3 minutes, Medium Questions take 4-6 minutes, Complex Questions take 6+ minutes
Staff Allocation: 50 Routine CSRs, 20 Medium CRSs, 10 Complex CSRs
Call Volume: routine calls per rep per day with call transfers to the Medium and Complex areas  
Task 1: Determine the best-case estimate
Task 2: Determine the most likely estimate
Task 3: Determine the worst-case estimate
Estimate = (T1 + 4[T2] + T3) / 6
Summary:  This is a statistical formula with a weighted average to base your estimation of phone coverage.

15. Rolling Wave WHAT IS YOUR PLAN?
Project: 10-day Vacation at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, FL
Stakeholders: You and your family , including 3 kids (6-boy), (11-girl) (16-girl) have never been to the “World”.
I ternary: Flight from Worcester Airport to Orlando International Airport on Aug 3 – Aug 12
Details: There are (4) Theme Parks, (2) Water Parks, Downtown Disney Marketplace, and many other activities including fishing excursions, horse back riding, golf, guided tours
What is needed: Theme Park tickets, Water Park tickets, meals, daily guide plans
Decision 1: Tickets: One park per day, park hopper, waterpark and more
Decision 2: Meals: Sit-down dinners, quick service meals, dinner shows, ala carte, grocery store
Decision 3: What is important?
DAY 4
Meal Place
Menu
Park
All rides
Evening details
DAY 3
Meal Place
Park
Must have rides
DAY 2
Meal Place
Park
DAY 1
3 Details
WHAT IS YOUR PLAN?

16. Rolling Wave
Project: 10-day Vacation at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, FL
Stakeholders: You and your family , including 3 kids (6-boy), (11-girl) (16-girl) have never been to the “World”.
I ternary: Flight from Worcester Airport to Orlando International Airport on Aug 3 – Aug 12
Details: There are (4) Theme Parks, (2) Water Parks, Downtown Disney Marketplace, and many other activities including fishing excursions, horse back riding, golf, guided tours
What is needed: Theme Park tickets, Water Park tickets, meals, daily guide plans
Decision 1: 5-day Ticket with Park Hopper and Water Park Fun & More Options
Decision 2: Meals will include 3 sit-down dinners, Mickey’s backyard BBQ, and the famous Hoop Dee Doo Musical Revue, and then some quick service meal options.
DAY 4
Breakfast at Resort
Blizzard Beach
Chair Lift
Summit Plummet
Melt-Away Bay
Lunch at Avalunch
Pulled Pork Slaw Dog
Mac and Cheese Dog
Head back to Resort
Hoop Dee Doo Musical Revue
Decision 3: Planning in some resort time for actual rest is a must!
DAY 3
AK – Breakfast at Tusker House
Expedition Everest
Kali River Rapids
Lunch at Pizzafari
Kilimanjaro Safaris
Maharajah Jungle Trek
DAY 2
Breakfast at Resort MK
Lunch at Crystal Palace
Day break at Resort
Mickey’s Backyard BBQ
DAY 1
Arrive on Magical Express
Check In
Hit the Parks!
Summary:  Rolling wave is planning from one time period to the next with each additional time period being more detailed.

17. Historic – Expert - Delphi
Project: Convert legacy customer service platform to new environment
Details: The claims system was converted from January 2011 – April 2013 and included over work hours across all areas.
Phases will included: Define, Estimate, Construct, Test, Implement
Determine Fact 1: How long did it take for the claim system conversion?
January 2011 – January 2012 = 12 months
January 2012 – January 2013 = 12 months
January 2013 – April 2013 = months
(27 months x 4 weeks = 108 weeks) x 40 hours = 4320 hours
Determine Fact 2: How many man hours were allocated?
# of resources on project = 5
History is the basis for this estimate

18. Historic – Expert - Delphi
Project: Convert legacy customer service platform to new environment
Details: The claims system was converted from January 2011 – April 2013 and included over work hours across all areas.
Phases will included: Define, Estimate, Construct, Test, Implement
Determine Fact 1: How long did it take for the claim system conversion?
Determine Fact 2: How many man hours were allocated?
Hx Data
Interviews
Brainstorming
What kind of questions could we come up with?
Whose expert judgment would we rely on?
Summary:  Historic estimates take statistical history, Expert Judgment takes addition factors into consideration, Delphi is a combination of the two.

19. BA Tasks: Waterfall Technique Methodology BA Role Analogous Waterfall
BA starts from scratch on a very high level.
Parametric
BA draws from similar projects and parameters of similar size, scale and functionality. [Can also be done in Agile]
Bottom-up
BA defines the estimate by specific requirement details.
Three Point
BA draws from Use Cases/Scenarios in Easy, Medium, and Complex states.

20. BA Tasks: Agile Technique Methodology BA Role Rolling Wave Agile
BA uses one iteration estimate to form the next one.
Historic
BA draws a strong analogy to projects and tasks of similar size, scale and functionality.
Expert
BA draws from the expertise of the developers and their past experiences.
Delphi
BA draws from history and expertise.

21. Definitions: Business Analysis Body of Knowledge
BABOK version 3.0 defines Requirement Estimation in the following area:
Knowledge Area – Techniques - Estimation:
Specific content is in the DRAFT stage but it does change the definition to be aligned with agreement, WBS, constraints, and includes assumptions.
The following methods are being considered to be changed: analogous, three-point, historic, expert. Some new methods may enter, for example, ROM – rough order of magnitude.
Some things also being considered are: accuracy of the estimate, sources, precision/reliability, contributors, and usage considerations (strengths/limitations).

22. THINK OUTSIDE OF THE BOX!

23. Conclusion and Questions