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Brian Guyer Forecaster WFO Albuquerque Terra Satellite.

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Presentation on theme: "Brian Guyer Forecaster WFO Albuquerque Terra Satellite."— Presentation transcript:

1 Brian Guyer Forecaster WFO Albuquerque Terra Satellite

2 KFMN KGUP KABQ KSAF KLVS KTCC KROW 5502’ 6472’ 6234’ 5355’ 6877’ 4065’ 3666’

3 KFMN 5502’

4 KLVS 6877’

5 KGUP 6472’

6

7 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 308 PM MST MON JAN 18 2010.DISCUSSION…THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND BLENDED PWAT PRODUCTS SHOW A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SOCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER THAN 200 PCT OF NORMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 312 PM MST TUE JAN 19 2010 DISCUSSION…SAT/COMP RADAR/ SFC OBS SHOW PRECIP IN ASSCN WITH THE STORM SYSTEM CRASHING INTO SOCA SPREADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AZ. MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES TODAY WILL ALLOW RA/SN TO DEVELOP OVER NM AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES CLOSER TO THE STATE. A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN 200 PCT OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES OVER NORTHERN NM WILL TRANSLATE INTO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TPW % of Normal

8 NOHRSC SNOW DEPTH 01/18/10 NOHRSC SNOW DEPTH 01/24/10 MODIS 1km False Color 01/24/10

9 NOHRSC SWE 01/30/10 NOHRSC SNOW DEPTH 01/30/10 MODIS 1km False Color 01/30/10

10 .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD AVIATION CONCERNS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. THE LATEST 0715Z NASA SPORT FOG DEPTH AND 09Z LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCTS INDICATE MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NM UNDER IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND KSAF. LOCALES SUCH AS KFMN AND KGUP CURRENTLY UNDER MVFR CIGS AROUND 025 MAY HOLD AT THOSE VALUES AS PRODUCT LOOPING DOES NOT SHOW A TREND TOWARD LOWER CIGS IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

11

12 01/30/2010 0909Z OVC036 OVC023 OVC001 VV001 OVC037 01/07/2010 0903Z Radiative RegimeUpslope/Advective Regime

13 923 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2010 …Freezing Fog Advisory in Effect Until 11 AM MST Sunday… 459 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2010 …Freezing Fog Advisory is Cancelled…

14 TAF KGUP 302335Z 3100/3124 35006KT P6SM FEW030 BKN200 FM310600 VRB05KT P6SM FEW010 BKN025 FM311730 23006KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 SCT200= TAF KGUP 310535Z 3106/0106 VRB05KT P6SM SCT040 BKN200 TEMPO 3110/3114 BKN025 FM311800 23006KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 SCT200 FM010200 VRB03KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN060= TAF KGUP 311140Z 3112/0112 VRB05KT P6SM BKN028 FM312000 VRB05KT P6SM SCT035= TAF KGUP 311739Z 3118/0118 VRB06KT P6SM BKN035 BKN120 FM312000 VRB05KT P6SM SCT035 BKN120 FM010700 VRB05KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN080 OVC120= KGUP 310653Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM CLR M06/M07 KGUP 310753Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM CLR M07/M08 KGUP 310853Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM CLR M07/M08 KGUP 310953Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM CLR M07/M08 KGUP 311053Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM SCT026 M07/M08 KGUP 311104Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN028 M07/M08 KGUP 311145Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN030 M07/M08 KGUP 311153Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM SCT030 M07/M08 KGUP 311228Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM BKN028 M07/M09 KGUP 311250Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM SCT028 M07/M09 KGUP 311253Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM FEW028 M08/M09 KGUP 311353Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC037 M07/M09 KGUP 311453Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM OVC033 M06/M07 KGUP 311553Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM OVC033 M05/M07 KGUP 311653Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC033 M03/M04 KGUP 311753Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC037 M02/M04

15 MODIS 1km False Color 01/18/10 2049Z MODIS 1km LST 01/18/10 1723Z Max Temperature Obs Grid 01/18/10 Max Temperature Forecast 01/19/10

16 = LMA

17 Northwest Plateau San Francisco Valley Tularosa/Lower Rio Grande Upper Rio Grande

18  Decision support aid  PWAT departures raise confidence on level of impacts expected  Anticipation of low clouds/ fog at TAF sites  Snow cover and temperature profiles  Anticipating LMA to complement radar coverage


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