1. How a Seemingly Minor Weather Concern Can Have a Significant Economic Impact on the Aviation Industry Aviation Case Study Kim Runk, NWS Las Vegas Southwest Aviation Workshop - Phoenix, AZ

2. Direct Operating Cost Air Transportation Association estimated the average operating cost for a commercial aircraft in 2005, taking into account fuel, crew and maintenance was $62 per minute.

3. Direct Operating Cost Southwest Airlines & America West indicated their costs for operating at McCarran were less in 2005… somewhere around $40 per hour.

4. Synoptic Setting Pacific cold front approaching. Broad swath of pre-frontal moisture evident. Ceilings expected to lower to about 5000’ by late morning with gusty south winds developing as the front approached. Rain was forecast to begin around 18Z with intermittent periods of MVFR conditions thru 03Z at LAS terminal.

5. Based on the 12Z TAF, FAA initiated a GDP. KLAS 021136Z 021212 24007KT P6SM SCT050 BKN150 FM1800 16012G22KT P6SM -RA SCT025 OVC050 TEMPO 1821 4SM RA BR BKN025 FM2100 19015G25KT 6SM -RA SCT025 OVC040 PROB30 2103 3SM RA BR BKN025 FM0300 21012G20KT P6SM OVC040 PROB30 0306 -SHRA BKN030 FM0600 22010G18KT P6SM SCT040 ARRIVAL RATE REDUCED TO 28

7. Front stalls over SoCal Weather conditions are deteriorating more slowly than originally expected. Following hotline discussion with TMU, arrival rate increased to 48 for 2 hours. 15Z OBS: 30003KT 10SM FEW050 BKN140 OVC250 16Z OBS: 24005KT 10SM FEW050 BKN140 OVC250 17Z OBS: 24005KT 10SM FEW050 BKN140 OVC250 18Z OBS: 20009KT 10SM FEW050 SCT140 BKN250

8. Another Adjustment Based on the new 18Z TAF, the 48 arrival rate is extended through 2300Z. Delay minutes are still climbing due to GA traffic (avg 100.3 min, max 697 min). KLAS 021732Z 021818 18005KT P6SM FEW050 SCT140 BKN250 FM2300 19015G25KT P6SM -RA SCT025 OVC040 FM0300 21012G20KT P6SM -SHRA OVC040 TEMPO 0306 -SHRA BKN030 FM0600 22010G18KT P6SM SCT040 FM1000 21010KT P6SM SCT040

9. Date: 01/02/2006 22:31 Advn: 118 Origin: ATCSCC Facid: LAS/ZLA Title: CDM GROUND DELAY PROGRAM AIRPORT: LAS DELAY ASSIGNMENT MODE: DAS ADL TIME: 2228Z ARRIVALS ESTIMATED FOR: 02/2228Z - 03/0859Z PROGRAM RATE: 30 FLIGHTS INCLUDED: ALL CONTIGUOUS US DEPARTURES SCOPE: (Manual) ZSE ZAB ZLC ZFW ZLA ZAU ZMP ZDV ZKC ZME ZID ZMA ZHU ZJX ZOB ZBW ZTL ZNY ZDC ZOA ADDITIONAL FACILITIES INCLUDED: CANADIAN AIRPORTS INCLUDED: CYVR CYYC CYEG DELAY ASSIGNMENT TABLE APPLIES TO: ZLA MAXIMUM DELAY: 724 AVERAGE DELAY: 202.1 REASON: WEATHER, WIND, LO CIGS REMARKS: By 2230Z, average delay time is 202 minutes, maximum delay of 724 minutes (12 hours). Many flights originally scheduled into LAS for the 1800Z-2300Z time frame have now been delayed into the inclement weather.

11. Economic Impact Total KLAS Arrival Delays =32,826 min 2005 National Avg DOC =$62/min 2005 SWA,USA DOC @ KLAS =$40/min Total Cost of Ground Delay Program on Airline Direct Operating Costs Estimated Between $1.3M - $2.0M

12. Lessons Learned Daily ground delay decisions for pacing airports are heavily influenced by the 12Z TAF. Focusing TEMPO group time frames is extremely important. Frequent updates for improving or deteriorating conditions can save a substantial amount of $$. We need real-time communications concerning ground delay status.

13. Lessons Learned Weather doesn’t have to threaten life in order to be significant. Shifting our focus from routine operational templates to a fresh look at where we have the best opportunity to add value will help us to concentrate resources more effectively during high impact events.

14. 3 Key Ops Questions What is the biggest challenge or problem of highest impact for this shift? Where can we best add value? Based on those answers, what is the best use of our available resources?

15. Questions? Comments?