1. The Future of Automobiles: Rolling Out the Next Generation of Advanced Vehicles Thomas J. Gross Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy May 17, 2001 World Environment Center Colloquium Washington, DC

2. 2 U.S. Transportation Uses More Oil Than Is Produced Domestically 1990 2000 2010 2020 325 384 455 507 Highway Carbon Emissions (million metric tons) Source: Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 19, DOE/ORNL-6958, September 1999, and EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA- 0383(2000), December 1999 Millions of Barrels per Day Domestic Oil Production Heavy Trucks Automobiles Light Trucks Passenger Vehicles ActualProjected Commercial Vehicles

3. 3 Closing the Oil Gap Increase the Supply of Oil AND Reduce the Demand for Oil Improve the Fuel Economy of Vehicles (& other Oil Using Equipment) Replace Oil with Alternative Fuels (& Feedstocks) Reduce the Amount of Travel (& other Behavioral Changes)

4. 4 US AMP Partnerships Are Key to Success USABC Government-Industry 21 st Century Truck Partnership Bioenergy Initiative

5. 5 PNGV: A Historic Collaboration Between Industry & Government Technologies Resources Prioritized Needs Resources Technologies Universities Federal Labs Suppliers Small Business TechnologiesCapabilities Goal 2: Near-Term Vehicle Improvements Goal 3: Triple Fuel Efficiency (up to 80 mpg) Daimler Chrysler Goal 1: Adv. Manufacturing GMFord USCAR Government (DOC Lead) Agencies DOT EPA NSF NASA DO C Government Industry (PNGV) Partnership DOD DOE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES

6. 6 Candidates for Development: Hybrid Vehicles Fuel Cells, Fuel Reformers CIDI Engines, Turbines Low Emissions Technologies New Materials Advanced Design Simulations Efficient Electronics and Electrical Devices Advanced Batteries Ultra-Capacitors and Flywheels Three Concept Cars 1993 200420001997 Technology Selection Decisions Completed Three Production Prototype Cars PNGV Technology Milestones Completed on Schedule Focus and Accelerate Technology Concept Vehicles PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES

7. 7 Technology Portfolio Continues to Evolve Systems Development Aerodynamics Rolling Resistance – Tires Accessory Loads – HVAC Powertrain Configuration –Parallel HEV –Series HEV Engine/Power Sources Advanced Heat Engines –DI Engines –HCCI –VCR Combustion and Aftertreatment –Lean NOx Catalyst –EGR –Traps Fuel Cell Batteries –NiMH Battery –Lithium Battery Pneumatic/Hydraulic Storage Power Electronics –Invertors/Controllers –Motors –Ultracapacitors – Electric Advanced Materials Lightweight Materials –Aluminum/Composite BIW –Composite BIW Propulsion Materials Fuels Utilization Gasoline Diesel Fuels and Blends (<30 ppm sulfur) Natural Gas Methanol Fischer-Tropsch Dimethyl Ether Ethanol Hydrogen Most promising options Other technologies PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES

8. 8 2000 PNGV Concept Vehicles Ford Prodigy GM Precept DaimlerChrysler ESX3 Body system weighs 46% less* Efficient diesel engine, motor, and battery projected at 72 mpg (gasoline equivalent)* Cost penalty halved to $7500 Vehicle body weight reduced 45% * World’s most energy efficient vehicle lighting system Lowest drag coefficient ever recorded for a 5-p sedan Dual-axle parallel hybrid achieves 79.6 mpg (gasoline equivalent) Lightweight materials reduce vehicle body structure weight 50%* Integrated starter/alternator* 33% reduction in aerodynamic drag Advanced diesel engine with 35% efficiency improvement projected to exceed 70 mpg (gasoline equivalent)* High-power battery * *Government supported technologies PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES

9. 9 Many Research Facilities and Firms Are Working to Make PNGV a Success 19 5 79 8 1 10 6 1 22 34 31 4 1 1 2 17 35 343 13 15 1 3 4 10 9 2 51 9 65 30 124 36 21 5 2 15 7 RI 2 3 10 26 89 8 2 1 1 1,201 Projects at 622 Sites, including 51 Universities and 21 Federal Labs in 47 States 2

10. 10 DOE Support of PNGV Is Focused on Long-Range, High-Risk R&D 200020082004 Research Validation Production Productio n Prototype Next Concept Productio n Vehicle Program s Government & Industry Industry Concept Cars Goals 1 and 2 Goal 3: 3X Research 2012 Integration DOE Support of PNGV

11. 11 Difficult, but Surmountable, Research Challenges Remain to Achieve Very High Fuel Economy  Hybrid Systems:Parallel configuration offers best option to meet 80 mpg. Series configuration may be used with fuel cells. Cost, weight, and packaging remain as challenges.  CIDI Engines:Mature technology with 44% efficiency, but Nox and particulate emissions remain challenges.  Fuel Cells:Lowest onboard emissions and potential for highest efficiency, but cost, systems integration, and fueling infrastructure are major challenges.  Energy Storage:Considerable progress in developing high-power battery; focus now on cost and cycle life.  Power Electronics:Progress on cost, power-to-weight ratios, and efficiencies needed.  Light Materials:Significant weight reductions achieved. Major issues are cost, manufacturability, joining, recycling, and repair.  Fuels:Fuel impacts on infrastructure must be addressed. Thorough evaluation is needed of the effects of fuel composition and physical properties on CIDI and fuel systems’ performance.

12. 12 Technology Is Migrating into New U.S. Vehicles Hybrid-electric drives scheduled for: –Dodge Durango in 2003 –Ford Escape in 2003 –Chevrolet Silverado in 2004 –and Ford Explorer in 2005 412 pounds of lightweight aluminum in the 2000 Lincoln LS Aluminum used for door, deck, and hood panels for Cadillac, Oldsmobile, and Chevrolet vehicles 50-pounds lighter composite pickup truck box on the 2001 Chevrolet Silverado Production of a new, lighter, recyclable thermoplastic hardtop for the Jeep Wrangler in 2001

13. 13 Department of Defense Department of Transportation Environmental Protection Agency Allison Transmission BAE SYSTEMS Controls Caterpillar Cummins DaimlerChrysler Detroit Diesel Eaton Corporation Freightliner General Motors Honeywell International Truck and Engine Mack Trucks NovaBUS Oshkosh Truck PACCAR Volvo Trucks North America Industry Participants DOE/EE/OTT Heavy Vehicle Technologies R&D Army/TACOM NAC Military Vehicle R&D Intelligent Vehicle and Highway Safety R&D Vehicle Emissions Regulations Department of Energy 21 st Century Truck Partnership

14. 14 21 st Century Truck Partnership Declaration of Intent Develop production prototype vehicles that:  Improve fuel efficiency, specifically, by 2010;  Double the Class 8 long-haul truck fuel efficiency*;  Triple the Class 2b and 6 truck (delivery van) fuel efficiency*; and  Triple the Class 8 transit bus fuel efficiency*;  Exceed expected emissions standards for 2010;  Meet or exceed motor carrier safety goal of reducing truck fatalities by half in ten years; and  Enhance affordability, and maintain or enhance performance. * On a ton-mile per gallon basis

15. 15 Many Federal Roles in Promoting Advanced Vehicles Area Research & Development Demonstration Deployment Incentives & Funding Regulation Example PNGV U.S. Postal Service Energy Policy Act TEA-21 Clean Air Act

16. 16 Selected Transportation Policies PolicyYearRegulations & Standards Financial Incentives Information EPCA (CAFE) 1975  AMFA1988  EPACT1992  ISTEA & TEA-21 1991 & 1996 

17. 17 Selected Proposals to Promote Clean and Efficient Vehicles Types of Incentives/Inducements Bill AFVS EVs Hybrids Fuel Cells Fuel Use Stations HOV Lanes Federal Agencies S. 389 Murkowski  S. 597 Bingaman  S. 760 Hatch 

18. 18 Federal Agencies Can Have A Role Number of vehicles in the Federal fleet – 578,000 Number of alternative fuel vehicles – 55,000 Estimated annual purchases – 55,000 uSedans ~ 17,500 uLight trucks, vans, SUVs ~ 22,500 uMedium, heavy-duty vehicles ~ 15,000 Average cost for Federal vehicles is low uCompact sedans @ $12,000; light trucks @ $13,000 Fleets are located all over the country, including rural areas

19. 19 Executive Order 13149 April 2000 Goals and Requirements: –20% Petroleum Reduction in Covered Federal Fleets in FY 2005 Compared to FY 1999 Baseline –Use of Alternative Fuel in AFVs by FY 2005 –Increased Average Fuel Economy of New Light Duty Vehicle Acquisitions

20. 20 In Summary  Federal role –Energy supply and demand are national issues –Federal efforts can support industry marketing –Testing and evaluation; consumer education; Clean Cities –Federal agency demonstrations  Comprehensive program –Multiple market segments (e.g., light and heavy duty) –Multiple technology options and fuels  Coordination and partnership are critical  Long term commitment is necessary