1. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 1 What is an Extreme Solar Minimum? W. Dean Pesnell NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center

2. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 2 The Sun Has Many Cycles We used to time our years by the motion of the Sun in the sky, building large structures to anticipate that motion. Summer Solstice at Stonehenge, 2005

3. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 3 The Sun Has Many Cycles I would like to mention that Simon Newcomb (1935-1909), who calculated a 5000 year catalogue of solar eclipses, was born about 150 km from here in Wallace. Summer Solstice at Stonehenge, 2005

4. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 4 What is Solar Minimum? 1.The traditional emphasis on sunspot number (minimum in R z, maximum in number of spotless days) 2.New cycle activity exceeds old cycle activity 3.Corona shape and alignment 4.Maximum in polar field 5.Others? How can we define solar minimum? Is this minimum weird? What are the interesting features of this minimum? Was solar minimum in December 2008? (SIDC ISSN continued to decrease until March 2009 but needs to be smoothed.)

5. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 5 What is Solar Minimum? Solar minimum is the set of contiguous months during the solar cycle when the 12-month mean of monthly average sunspot numbers is the smallest. We define minimum different from maximum. While maximum is local, minimum is defined using a ceiling value (i.e., < 20). This implies that the Sun returns to the same base state at every minimum.

6. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 6 What is Solar Minimum? The solar minimum between Solar Cycles 22 and 23 could be May 1996 (by the minimum definition) or October 1996 if more information, such as the number of old vs. new spots, is used. Could a quantity that peaks at solar minimum be used to define the instant of solar minimum? (Is there a conjugate variable?)

7. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 7 WSO Polar Magnetic Field Polar field has peak at minimum, sign change at maximum We have three successively smaller minima (1.3, 1.0, 0.6)!

8. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 8 The Polar Magnetic Field Peaks Near Solar Minimum

9. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 9 Cosmic Rays are Maximum after Solar Minimum The cosmic ray flux continues to grow and has exceeded earlier fluctuations. McMurdo currently has the highest relative flux. The highest relative flux is at South Pole in 1965 but measurements there stopped in November 2005. Swarthmore/Newark (blue) and Thule are the other stations. (The neutron monitors of the Bartol Research Institute are supported by NSF grant ATM-0527878.)

10. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 10 Cosmic Rays are Maximum after Solar Minimum By plotting the negative of the relative fluxes we see a pattern similar to the sunspot number.

11. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 11 Magnetic Field Three sunspot cycles are covered with regular LOS magnetograms Shows the butterfly diagram plus the polar contribution and field surges that are not seen in the sunspot record

12. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 12 So we have a few examples of secondary variables, but not enough to use them to define the instant of solar minimum Is it late? –No, a little long and deviates from recent past but well within average –If minimum was in December 2008 SC 23 was about 12.6 years long, one standard deviation from the mean length, longest since SC 6 –We have have been spoiled with fairly regular cycles for 50 years Is it weird? –Not really –The number of spotless days (>670 since 2006) is large compared to the average of 485, but similar to the early part of the 20th century –It is also extremely well-observed by many observatories But, there are some interesting features of this minimum Oddities in this Minimum

13. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 13 Spotless Days? The number of spotless days has tended to go down while the total sunspot number per cycle has increased.

14. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 14 Solar EUV spectral irradiance Helioseismology White light (TSI & corona) Response of the magnetosphere Notables in this Minimum July 27, 2009, another spotless day on the Sun (MDI)

15. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 15 EUV: The Heartbeat of SWx The solar EUV spectral irradiance causes much of what we call space weather This irradiance has been reported by SEE on TIMED as daily and orbital values Identifying the sources of this irradiance is a major goal of the EVE instrument on SDO

16. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 16 Ultrasound of the Sun Helioseismology compares how sound travels between different parts of the Sun to see into and through the Sun. Here we see that bands of faster rotating material (jet streams) appear to determine where sunspots appear (GONG and MDI). But we only have two points.

17. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 17 Ultrasound of the Sun Helioseismology compares how sound travels between different parts of the Sun to see into and through the Sun. Here we see that bands of faster rotating material (jet streams) appear to determine where sunspots appear (GONG and MDI). But we only have two points.

18. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 18 Ultrasound of the Sun Drawing a line at 25˚ shows how the zonal band moves thru the same latitude at about the time sunspots appear. Does this show how the Sun times solar activity?

19. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 19 Total Solar Irradiance TSI is lower this minimum than the previous two Unexpected change after a greatly disputed increase in the previous minimum Few mechanisms exist for magnetic changes in the basal solar luminosity Figure from C. Fröhlich

20. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 20 Sunspot and F10.7 Residual of the fit between R Z and F10.7 (in blue.) The North-South asymmetry in the number of active regions is shown as a solid red line. The tendency of R Z to be smaller than F10.7 may be increasing with time.

21. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 21 Coronal Variations Have Not Simplified as Yet Corona evolves from simple, dipolar-like structure aligned with the rotation axes at minimum to complex at maximum and back to simple Current LASCO images show an aligned structure with multiple streams Work done by Daniel Young and Chris St. Cyr shows pattern is consistent through three cycles, possible extension to include all photographed eclipses Dissociates O 2

22. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 22 State of the Magnetosphere The Dst index has dropped to levels not encountered before in the measured record. Only quicklook data is available in 2007 and 2008, but trend is present in the second half of 2006. Shown in black +’s is the number of days in each Carrington rotation with a daily average Dst < -25 (at least small storms) and sunspot number in red The trend after 2006 is the most interesting feature

23. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 23 Solar activity predictions by Schatten et al., have used the polar magnetic field to predict 3 cycles and predict a low Cycle 24. Blue = predicted Red = F10.7 (annual) +++ = F10.7 (monthly) … = date of prediction How Active Will Solar Cycle 24 Be?

24. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 24 What Do We Learn From Solar Minimum? 1.Is the core a part of the variation? 2.Changes in the convection zone may be all that is necessary 3.How does the magnetic field measured outside the Sun reflect what is happening inside the Sun? 4.Solar dynamo is constantly running. Solar minimum is just as important as solar maximum. 5.Does the lack of symmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres give us a clue? 6.How far are we from physically consistent models of the solar dynamo? The Sun’s magnetic field is created by an internal dynamo. We accept that major variations in that dynamo have occurred in the past. What does the present minimum teach us about the solar dynamo?

25. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 25 Predictions of Solar Cycle 24 Our lack of knowledge about the dynamo is summarized by the spread of predictions for Solar Cycle 24.

26. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 26 Summary We need a physical definition of solar minimum, perhaps the competition between the 2 cycles, because we use the instant of minimum to set the timing of predictions for upcoming solar cycle. Best definition would be a dynamo model. Solar minimum is a good time to study the Sun as a Star Basal level of emission, effect on climate and evolution Studies of isolated active regions that grow in coronal holes Helioseismology without sunspots Spectral irradiance levels Relative importance of photons, particles, and magnetic field Simple configuration of magnetic field and current sheet Galactic cosmic rays are most dangerous during minimum and may be more so in the upcoming 11 years Better predictions of solar activity would be useful

27. SHINE 2009 Workshop, August 2009 27 The Solar Dynamics Observatory, the first mission of Living With a Star, will provide the data needed to understand the solar convection zone and how magnetic field is assembled and dissipated in the solar atmosphere. Questions? SDO is at the Cape, ready to GO! http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov