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Imagine that the number of students in our AP HG Class has doubled. List the effects of this, both positive and negative. Would you like to have more,

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Presentation on theme: "Imagine that the number of students in our AP HG Class has doubled. List the effects of this, both positive and negative. Would you like to have more,"— Presentation transcript:

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2 Imagine that the number of students in our AP HG Class has doubled. List the effects of this, both positive and negative. Would you like to have more, fewer or the same number of students in the class as now?

3 Questions: 1. What services are easier to provide for an area of high population density? 2. What qualities are desirable about areas of lower population density? 3. If population continues to grow locally, what is the impact on population density?

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5 Population Geography Distribution of World Population Population Statistics Population Pyramids Demographic Transition Theory Population Control Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-Malthusians)

6 Population Demography: The study of the Characteristics of human population –Demographers look statistically at how people are distributed spatially by age, gender, occupation, fertility, health, etc. The distribution of the worlds population is in one word “uneven”

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9 A little information about world Population 80% of pop. Lives within 500 Mi. of an ocean World inhabitants live on only 10% of the land 90% of pop. Lives North of the Equator 65% lives between 20°N and 60 ° N latitude

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12 Population Concentrations 23 countries = 75% of world population (172) 10 Countries have pops. Greater than 100M China, India, United States, Indonesia, Brazil

13 World and Country Population Totals Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface! Total: 6.6 billion on planet as of 2007 World Clock! Five most populous regions and countries REGIONPOPULATION COUNTRYPOPULATION East Asia 1.5 billion China 1.254 billion South Asia 1.2 billion India 986 million Europe 750 million U.S. 274 million SE Asia 500 million Indonesia 206 million East N. Am. 120 million Brazil 168 million

14 Factors that Shape Distribution Accessibility Topography Soil Fertility Climate Weather Water Political History Economic History

15 Ecumene Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 BC - AD 1900 Ecumene, or portion of the earth’s surface that has permanent human settlement has expanded to cover most of the earth’s land area.

16 Population Density Density: numerical measure of the relationship between the number of people and some other unit of interest (typically space)

17 Population Density 2 Main Types of Densities –Crude/Arithmetic –Physiological

18 Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi 2 ; NYC=1,000,000/ mi 2 ; Australia = 7/mi 2 Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.

19 Crude/Arithmetic Density Total number of people divided by the total land are (also called Population Density) Limitations Assumes Uniformity One dimensional Tells little about opportunities or obstacles contained in the relationship of people to land

20 Assumes Uniformity Example: New York State 407.731 People Per Sq. Mile (6 th ) Remove NY City Population of 8 Million And area of NYC 368 sq mi. Density = 240.19 People Per Sq. Mile

21 Population Density of Georgia

22 Physiological Density Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land Excludes agriculturally non- productive land Reflects the “burden of dependency” or “carrying capacity”

23 United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land Egypt = 9,073 people per sq. Mile Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than Crude/Arithmetic Density? Physiological Density

24 Answer Physiological gives us a better picture of the populations strain on the country’s resources EXAMPLE United States Crude Density = 78 per sq. mi. Physiological = 404 per sq. mi. Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq. mi. Physiological = 9,073 per sq. mi.

25 Population Density – Egypt All but 5% of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley It is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops

26 Growth

27 In order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors: - Fertility and Mortality

28 Measuring Population Geographers/Demographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures

29 Measuring Population –Crude Birth Rate (CBR) –Crude Death Rate (CDR) –Natural Increase Rate (NIR) Natural means excluding migration Crude means looking at society as a whole

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31 Crude Birth Rate Total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive –CBR of 20 means that for every 1,000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one- year period –CBR for United States 2005 = 14.1 CBR = number of live births ÷ population x 1000

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33 Crude Death Rate Total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people CDR for United States 2005 = 8.2 CDR = number of deaths ÷ population x 1000

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35 Natural Increase Rate (NIR) Percentage by which a population grows in a year

36 Natural Increase Rate (NIR) Computed CBR – CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1,000 to % (# per 100) CBR = 20, CDR = 5 20 – 5 = 15 per 1,000 or 1.5% (15÷1000 x100)

37 Natural Increase World NIR for the 1 st Half of the 20 th Century = 1.3 –Peaked at 2.2 in 1963 –Declined sharply during the past decade

38 Natural Increase 80 million people are added to the world’s population annually High of 87 million in 1989 Small % changes in the NIR are very dramatic because the % affects such a large base (7 Billion)

39 Rates of Natural Increase

40 Natural Increase = CBR - CDR

41 Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population

42 Demographic Equations Growth Rate (%) = (Birth Rate – Death Rate) +/– Migration (Rate of Natural Increase) Population Doubling Time (yrs.) = 72  Rate of Natural Increase

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44 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49) TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current) World TFR is around 3. –Sub Saharan Africa >6 –Europe <2

45 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children. Fertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1,000 total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period

46 2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age. Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2. England & Wales

47 Total Fertility Rate

48 Influences on Birth Rates Family planning programs Contraceptive technology Role of mass media Education/opportunities for women Child mortality rates Affluence/wealth

49 Mortality Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual # of deaths of infants under one year of age, compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1,000) Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1,000 number of live births during time period

50 Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

51 Mortality Exceeds 100 in some LDC’s (10%) –W. Europe < 1% Generally a reflection of a country’s healthcare system

52 World Death Rates Infectious diseases –HIV/AIDS –SARS Degenerative diseases –Obesity –Tobacco use Epidemiological transition –Communicable diseases/pathogens in less developed countries –Degenerative diseases in more developed countries (obesity, heart disease, diabetes, cancer)

53 Adults and Children Living with HIV/AIDS, mid-2006

54 Epidemiologic Transition Stages 1 and 2 –Infectious and parasitic disease. –“natural checks” according to Malthus Stages 3 and 4 –Degenerative and human created disease. –Increase in chronic disorders associated with aging (heart attack, etc) Possible Stage 5 –Reemergence of infectious and parasitic disease.

55 Life Expectancy Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels W. Europe = late 70’s Sub Saharan Africa = Late 30’s

56 Life Expectancy

57 Doubling Time How long will it take for a population of a given area to double in size? Doubling time assumes the population will grow at a given annual rate Approximated by dividing the annual rate of population into 72 World = 50 MDC = 550 LDC = 40 Honduras = 22 Denmark = 700 Russia = never? Example: Bangladesh 72/R.N.I. => 72/2.09 = 34.4 years Bangladesh with a population of 144.3 million people in 2005 will have approximately 288.6 million people in 2039, if the population continues to grow at current rates.

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59 The Demographic Transition Model

60 Model that shows changes in natural increase, fertility, and mortality rates A process with several stages

61 Demographic Transition Model www.prb.org/pdf04/transitionsinWorldPop.pdf The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

62 The Demographic Transition Model Every country in the world is in one of the stages The process has a beginning, middle, and end Once a country moves to a stage it does not revert back

63 Demographic Transition Model

64 The Demographic Transition –1. Low growth– 4. Low growth –2. High growth– 5. Negative growth? –3. Moderate growth Population pyramids –Age distribution –Sex ratio Countries in different stages of demographic transition Demographic transition and world population growth

65 Demographic Transition Model Stage one –Crude birth/death rate high –Fragile population Stage two –Lower death rates –Infant mortality rate –Natural increase high Stage three –Indicative of richer developed countries –Higher standards of living/education Stage Four –CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost = –ZPG= Zero Pop. Growth –Most Northern and Western Euro countries

66 Stage/Phase 1: Low Growth (Pre- Industrial) Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1 CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels

67 Stage/Phase 1: Low Growth (Pre- Industrial) Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero Population remained unchanged (around 500,000)

68 Stage/Phase 1: Low Growth (Pre- Industrial) Between 800 B.C. and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution

69 Stage/Phase 1: Low Growth (Pre- Industrial) Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply No Country is currently in Stage 1

70 Human Numbers Through Time: A.D. 0 2,000 years ago......at the dawn of the first millennium A.D. the world's population was around 300 million people.

71 Human Numbers Through Time: A.D. 1000 1,000 years later......the population had risen by as little as 10 million. And well into the second millennium, it grew less than 0.1 percent each year. The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300s—struck down by the Black Plague. But beginning in the late 18th century, the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth.

72 Stage/Phase 2: High Growth (Beginning of Industrial) Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from.05% to.5% Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2

73 Stage/Phase 2: High Growth (Beginning of Industrial) In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high) Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth

74 Stage/Phase 2: High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism) Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life better/easier) 1800 in Europe and N. America

75 Stage/Phase 2: High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism) 1950 in Africa, Asia, and Latin America Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20 th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDC’s LDC’s were given “Death Control” Edward Jenner 1796: Smallpox vaccine

76 Human Numbers Through Time: 1800 800 years later......the population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people. Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia, 21 percent in a prospering Europe, and less than 1 percent in North America.

77 Stage/Phase 3: Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete) Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR Pop. Still grows – just at a modest rate Europe and North America Enter 1 st Half 20 th Century Asia, Latin America in recent years, Africa – Not yet

78 What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop? Change in Social Customs People choose to have fewer children Parents understand the decline in mortality rates More service jobs, less farming jobs In urban areas children are not economic assets Urban homes are smaller

79 Stage/Phase 4: Low Growth (Post-Industrial) CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG) Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 2.1 = ZPG

80 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). Demographic Transition Model

81 Why such a low Fertility Rate in Stage/Phase 4? Women in Stage 4 work Childcare is needed in order to work Birth control Upscale Activities

82 Stage/Phase 4/5 in other Countries Eastern Europe (especially Russia) Negative Natural Increase High Death Rates: poor pollution controls during communist control Low Birth Rates –“Family Planning” remains from communism –In Russia women average 3.5 abortions –Pessimism about the future

83 To Review…

84 Pre-industrial CBR and CDR high and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters. Population is a constant and young pop. Stage One

85 Stage Two Death rates drop… improvements in food supply, sanitation, etc. Birth rates do not drop… causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population.

86 Stage Three Birth rates fall –Access to contraception –Increase in wages –Urbanization –Move away from subsistence agriculture. –Education of women Population growth begins to level off

87 Stage Four Low birth AND low death. Birth rates may drop below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth (Stage 5?). Large group born during stage 2 ages… creates a burden on the smaller working population.

88 Soooo…. A cycle, in a way, from 1 to 4 Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are high… in Stage 4 they are low. Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1

89 The Demographic Transition in England Now Stage 4 Historically –Stage 1 – Low growth until 1750 –Stage 2 – High growth 1750-1880 –Stage 3 – Moderate growth 1880-early 1970’s –Stage 4 – Early 1970’s- present. Long time below the 2.1 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement.

90 Problems with the Demographic Transition Model based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3 it is not an exact science!!!!!!!!

91 Remember… Demographic Transition is not only dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out migration!!!!

92 If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate?

93 Demographic Transition and World Population Growth Second Half of the 20 th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4 Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4 Most countries are Stage 2 or 3, many countries won’t reach Stage 4 any time soon

94 Demographic Transition and World Population Growth Stage 4 is caused by 2 “breaks” 1.Drop in the Crude Death Rate 2.Drop in the Crude Birth Rate N. America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically

95 Demographic Transition and World Population Growth However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries The Regions of Africa, Parts of East Asia, and others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate

96 Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate Change in Social Customs People choose to have fewer children Parents understand the decline in mortality rates More service jobs, less farming jobs In urban areas children are not economic assets Urban homes are smaller Women work Birth Control Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2?

97 Answer Only Europe, Australia and Parts of Asia and North America are in Stage 4 Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3 The problem lies in how to encourage those areas to reach Stage 4 (P.S. – Why is staying in Stage 2 or Stage 3 a “problem?”)

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99 How do the crude birth rate & the fertility rate differ? Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world?

100 What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a population’s age and gender composition?

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102 Population in Demographic Transition A country’s stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways: % of population in Each Age Group Distribution of males and females We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids

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104 Population Pyramid (Age/Sex Pyramid) Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects, such as birth or deaths Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age

105 Characteristics of Population Pyramids Males = left side of the vertical axis Females = right side of the vertical axis Age = order sequentially with youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population

106 Population Pyramid Developed Countries A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model Large number of “older people” Smaller % of young people

107 Population Pyramid Developing Countries A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model Large number of young people and a smaller older population

108 Rapid Growth in Cape Verde Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out- migration.

109 Moderate Growth in Chile Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

110 Age Distribution Dependency Ratio: number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years

111 Sex Ratio Sex Ratio: number of males per hundred females In general more males are born than females Males have higher death rates

112 3 age groupings 0-14 = Dependents 15-64 = Workers 64+ = Dependents Stage 2 Countries = 1:1 Stage 4 Countries = 1:2

113 Sex Ratio Europe and North America = 95:100 Rest of World = 102:100

114 Developing Countries Have large % of young people – where males generally outnumber females Lower % of older people – where females are typically more numerous High immigration = more males

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120 Population Shift

121 An Aging World Discussion What are the implications of an aging population for: 1.The U.S. housing market? 2.Social security and pension funds? 3.Public financing of colleges and universities? 4.Global migration flows?

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123 Overpopulation When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.

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125 Thomas Malthus An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) Earth’s population was growing much more rapidly than the Earth’s food supply

126 Thomas Malthus on Population Malthus predicted: population would outrun food supply decrease in food per person. Assumptions Populations grow exponentially. Food supply grows arithmetically. Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

127 Reason… Population increases geometrically Food Supply increases arithmetically

128 Population J-Curve

129 Reasoning… Made prediction following England’s entrance into stage 2 of DT Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR

130 Neo-Malthusians Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted

131 2 Main Reasons Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDC’s would reach stage 2 Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production

132 Population and Resource Consumption

133 Technology, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Impact There has been a dramatic increase in: individual energy use over time: 3,000 kcal/person - 300,000 kcal/person the power of technology to change the environment: think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb. The scope and severity of environmental impacts.

134 Population and the Environment I = P x A x T Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology Population-influenced environmental problems: Global Warming Habitat Loss / Endangered Species Resource Depletion Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.

135 Criticism of Malthus Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding Increased pop. could create more resources Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution

136 (1743 – 1794) predicted that innovation, resulting increased wealth, and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family believed that society was perfectible Jean Antoine Condorcet

137 Malthus and Reality Last half-century has not supported Malthus’s theory Food production & effects of globalization

138 Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker Consistent drop in the NIR Caused by a drop in the CBR –Economic Development –Contraceptives Malthus and Reality


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