1. Two sides of optimism: The positive and negative consequences of dispositional optimism and optimistic attributional style Evgeny Osin (Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia) Tamara Gordeeva (Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia) eosin@hse.ru tamgordeeva@gmail.com eosin@hse.rutamgordeeva@gmail.com Theoretical Background Optimistic people report being happier and more satisfied with life. However, the studies of association between optimism and achievement have produced rather controversial results. The reason is that there are two different approaches to optimism: optimistic attributional style tradition (Peterson et al., 1982), where optimism is operationalised as a tendency to attribute positive events to causes that are permanent, global, and associated with one’s personality, and dispositional optimism, defined as generalized expectations of positive events in the future (Carver & Scheier, 1981, 1990; Scheier & Carver, 1988). These two constructs are often placed under the same general label of optimism in the literature, however, their underlying psychological mechanisms are different. Although their association with well-being might be similarly positive, as the literature suggests, the two varieties of optimism should result in different performance consequences in a specific activity. Hypothesis Our hypothesis is that optimistic attributional style and dispositional optimism (Scheier, Carver, 1987) have different patterns of association to achievement in academic domain. This hypothesis is based on the previous findings. Our previous results indicated a positive association between attributional optimism and academic achievement in several school student samples, but an inverse relationship in a university entrant sample’(Gordeeva, Osin, 2009). Yet another study (Osin, Gordeeva, Sychev, 2009) revealed that dispositional optimism was associated with lower achievement in an academic competition setting, and was marginally negatively associated with academic performance at university. The aim of the present study was to summarise and confirm these findings in a single sample, to see the interaction between optimistic attributional style and dispositional optimism. Methods A longitudinal study was undertaken in two cohorts (N=166 and N=128) of first- and second-year Chemistry students at the Moscow State University. Validated Russian 8-item version of Life Orientation Test (LOT: Gordeeva, Sychev, Osin, 2010) was used to measure dispositional optimism, and 36-item Attributional Style Questionnaire (ASQ: Gordeeva, Osin, Shevyakhova, 2009) was used to measure optimistic attributional style for positive and negative situations. Academic performance was operationalised as grade point average spanning 4 subsequent semesters. Results: Optimism and Academic Achievement In the first cohort, moderate significant positive correlations (see Table 1) were found between AS and LOT scores, but only AS for positive events demonstrated positive associations with future achievement indicators. Optimistic AS Positive Situations Optimistic AS for Negative Situations Dispositional Optimism (LOT) Fall Exams 2008.11-.02-.13 Spring Exams 2009.15-.01-.11 Fall Exams 2009.24 **-.06-.07 Spring Exams 2010.18 *-.04 Optimistic AS: Positive Sit..02.35 *** Optimistic AS: Negative Sit..25 ** Table 1. Correlations between optimistic attributional style, dispositional optimism and academic achievement (N=153). *** p<.001, **p<.01, *p<.05 Figure 1. The association of two components of optimistic attributional style to well-being and achievement 1 year later (N=102; Chi-sq.=3.17, p=.67; CFI=1.00, RMSEA=0.00; all paths significant p<.05). The data allowed to discern the possible effects of optimistic explanations for positive and negative situations. A path analysis model (see Figure 1) indicated that optimistic explanations of positive situations predicted future academic achievement and, marginally, vitality, while optimistic explanations of negative situations predicted future well- being more strongly. However, we hypothesized that optimistic attributional style, unlike dispositional optimism, is not only a motivational factor, but also a cognitive feedback- processing mechanism. The way people explain their successes and failures results in different conclusions they make, with different consenquences for motivation and performance. Results: Attributional Style as a Performance Feedback Moderator The students were split into 5 performance groups based on their GPA during the first examination session which preceded the measurement. They were split into 2 groups based on the median of optimism scores for positive and negative situations. Using ANOVA approach, we entered past performance and one of the optimism variables in turn, expecting to find an interaction effect. Figure 2. The moderating effect of optimistic attributional style on previous and subsequent academic performance. It was found that optimistic attributional style moderated the effect of academic performance feedback on academic performance during 3 subsequent examination sessions (see Figure 2). More specifically, students within middle and lower-middle performance range who were more likely to give optimistic explanations to their academic failures were likely to show lower perofmance in the future. Their more pessimistic counterparts, in contrast, were probably likely to invest more effort into future activity, resulting in higher grades. Only attributional style for negative situations showed this pattern of association with performance; no similar moderating effects were found for positive situation explanations. In order to discern between the effects of dispositional and attributional optimism upon subsequent performance, path analysis was performed, entering attributional optimism as predictor of performance, controlling for dispositional optimism (see Figure 3). The results analysis revealed negative unique contribution of dispositional optimism to achievement, confirming the existence of two different mechanisms behind the association of optimism and achievement. Figure 3. Path analysis indicating inverse association of the two varieties of optimism to subsequent academic performance (N=153, all parameters significant at p<.05). The second cohort data is being analyzed to replicate these findings. The results fit well with the ideas of self-regulation approach (Carver, Scheier, 1983) and the concept of unrealistic optimism. Discussion The results suggest that dispositional and attributional optimism are indeed different psychological mechanisms, each with its specific effects upon performance. These effects can be moderated by situational variables. Consequences Dispositional Optimism Attributional Optimism POSITIVE Motivates initiation of goal- directed activity. Associated with increased well-being. Associated with increased well- being. Optimistic explanations of successes are associated with sustained activity performance. NEGATIVE Positive expectations may lead to underestimation of activity difficulty, resulting in less effort invested. Optimistic explanations of failures lead to less effort invested into activity. Future Directions The conclusions above summarize the results of several correlational studies undertaken during the last years. It is planned to test the existence of these mechanisms in an experimental setting, using dispositional optimism and induced optimistic vs. pessimistic explanations of activity outcomes as predictors of motivation, effort invested, and resuting performance of subsequent activity. Acknowledgments We are grateful to Prof. Dmitry Leontiev for his useful comments, and to the students who assisted the data collection.