1. 1 Yotta Zetta Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo Storage: Alternate Futures Jim Gray Microsoft Research Research.Micrsoft.com/~Gray/talks NetStore ’99 Seattle WA, 14 Oct 1999

2. 2 Acknowledgments: Thank You!! Dave Patterson: –Convinced me that processors are moving to the devices. Kim Keeton and Erik Riedell –Showed that many useful subtasks can be done by disk-processors, and quantified execution interval Remzi Dusseau –Re-validated Amdhl’s laws

3. 3 Outline The Surprise-Free Future (5 years) –500 mips cpus for 10$ –1 Gb RAM chips –MAD at 50 Gbpsi –10 GBps SANs are ubiquitous –1 GBps WANs are ubiquitous Some consequences –Absurd (?) consequences. –Auto-manage storage –Raid10 replaces Raid5 –Disc-packs –Disk is the archive media of choice A surprising future? –Disks (and other useful things) become supercomputers. –Apps run “in the disk”

4. 4 The Surprise-free Storage Future 1 Gb RAM chips MAD at 50 Gbpsi Drives shrink one quantum Standard IO 10 GBps SANs are ubiquitous 1 Gbps WANs are ubiquitous 5 tips cpus for 1K$ and 500 mips cpus for 10$

5. 5 1 Gb RAM Chips Moving to 256 Mb chips now 1Gb will be “standard” in 5 years, 4 Gb will be premium product. Note: –256Mb = 32MB: the smallest memory – 1 Gb = 128 MB: the smallest memory

6. 6 MAD at 50 Gbpsi MAD: Magnetic Aerial Density: 3-10 Mbpsi in products 20 Mbpsi in lab 50 Mbpsi = paramagnetic limit but…. People have ideas. Capacity: rise 10x in 5 years (conservative) Bandwidth: rise 4x in 5 years (density+rpm) Disk: 50GB to 500 GB, 60-80MBps 1k$/TB 15 minute to 3 hour scan time.

7. 7 Disk vs Tape Disk –47 GB –15 MBps –10 ms seek time – 5 ms rotate time – 9$/GB for drive 3$/GB for ctlrs/cabinet –4 TB/rack Tape –40 GB – 5 MBps –30 sec pick time –Many minute seek time –5$/GB for media 10$/GB for drive+library –10 TB/rack The price advantage of tape is narrowing, and the performance advantage of disk is growing Guestimates Cern: 200 TB 3480 tapes 2 col = 50GB Rack = 1 TB =20 drives

8. 8 System On A Chip Integrate Processing with memory on one chip –chip is 75% memory now –1MB cache >> 1960 supercomputers –256 Mb memory chip is 32 MB! –IRAM, CRAM, PIM,… projects abound Integrate Networking with processing on one chip –system bus is a kind of network –ATM, FiberChannel, Ethernet,.. Logic on chip. –Direct IO (no intermediate bus) Functionally specialized cards shrink to a chip.

9. 9 500 mips System On A Chip for 10$ 486 now 7$ 233 Mhz ARM for 10$ system on a chip http://www.cirrus.com/news/products99/news-product14.html AMD/Celeron 266 ~ 30$ In 5 years, today’s leading edge will be –System on chip (cpu, cache, mem ctlr, multiple IO) –Low cost –Low-power –Have integrated IO High end is 5 BIPS cpus

10. 10 Standard IO in 5 Years Probably Replace PCI with something better will still need a mezzanine bus standard Multiple serial links directly from processor Fast (10 GBps/link) for a few meters System Area Networks (SANS) ubiquitous (VIA morphs to SIO?)

11. 11 1 GBps Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs in 5 years 1Gbps Ethernet are reality now. –Also FiberChannel,MyriNet, GigaNet, ServerNet,, ATM,… 10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192) –3 Tbps WDM working in lab In 5 years, expect 10x, progress is astonishing Gilder’s law: Bandwidth grows 3x/year http://www.forbes.com/asap/97/0407/090.htm 5 MBps 20 Mbsp 40 MBps 80 MBps 120 MBps (1Gbps)

12. 12 Thin Client’s mean HUGE servers AOL hosting customer pictures Hotmail allows 5 MB/user, 50 M users Web sites offer electronic vaulting for SOHO. IntelliMirror: replicate client state on server Terminal server: timesharing returns …. Many more.

13. 13 Standard Storage Metrics Capacity: –RAM: MB and $/MB: today at 512MB and 3$/MB –Disk:GB and $/GB: today at 50GB and 10$/GB –Tape: TB and $/TB: today at 50GB and 12k$/TB (nearline) Access time (latency) –RAM:100 ns –Disk: 10 ms –Tape: 30 second pick, 30 second position Transfer rate –RAM: 1 GB/s –Disk: 15 MB/s - - - Arrays can go to 1GB/s –Tape: 5 MB/s - - - striping is problematic, but “works”

14. 14 New Storage Metrics: Kaps, Maps, SCAN? Kaps: How many kilobyte objects served per second –The file server, transaction processing metric –This is the OLD metric. Maps: How many megabyte objects served per second –The Multi-Media metric SCAN: How long to scan all the data –the data mining and utility metric And –Kaps/$, Maps/$, TBscan/$

15. 15 For the Record (good 1999 devices packaged in system http://www.tpc.org/results/individual_results/Compaq/compaq.5500.99050701.es.pdf) X 100 Tape is 1Tb with 4 DLT readers at 5MBps each.

16. 16 For the Record (good 1999 devices packaged in system http://www.tpc.org/results/individual_results/Compaq/compaq.5500.99050701.es.pdf ) Tape is 1Tb with 4 DLT readers at 5MBps each.

17. 17 The Access Time Myth The Myth: seek or pick time dominates The reality: (1) Queuing dominates (2) Transfer dominates BLOBs (3) Disk seeks often short Implication: many cheap servers better than one fast expensive server –shorter queues –parallel transfer –lower cost/access and cost/byte This is obvious for disk arrays This even more obvious for tape arrays Seek Rotate Transfer Seek Rotate Transfer Wait

18. 18 Storage Ratios Changed 10x better access time 10x more bandwidth 4,000x lower media price DRAM/disk media price ratio changed –1970-1990 100:1 –1990-1995 10:1 –1995-1997 50:1 –today ~ 0.1$pMB disk 30:1 3$pMB dram

19. 19 Data on Disk Can Move to RAM in 8 years 30:1 6 years

20. 20 Outline The Surprise-Free Future (5 years) –500 mips cpus for 10$ –1 Gb RAM chips –MAD at 50 Gbpsi –10 GBps SANs are ubiquitous –1 GBps WANs are ubiquitous Some consequences –Absurd (?) consequences. –Auto-manage storage –Raid10 replaces Raid5 –Disc-packs –Disk is the archive media of choice A surprising future? –Disks (and other useful things) become supercomputers. –Apps run “in the disk”.

21. 21 The (absurd?) consequences 256 way nUMA? Huge main memories: now: 500MB - 64GB memories then: 10GB - 1TB memories Huge disks now: 5-50 GB 3.5” disks then: 50-500 GB disks Petabyte storage farms –(that you can’t back up or restore). Disks >> tapes –“Small” disks: One platter one inch 10GB SAN convergence 1 GBps point to point is easy 1 GB RAM chips MAD at 50 Gbpsi Drives shrink one quantum 10 GBps SANs are ubiquitous 500 mips cpus for 10$ 5 bips cpus at high end

22. 22 The Absurd? Consequences Further segregate processing from storage Poor locality Much useless data movement Amdahl’s laws: bus: 10 B/ips io: 1 b/ips Processors Disks ~ 1 Tips RAM Memory ~ 1 TB ~ 100TB 100 GBps 10 TBps

23. 23 Storage Latency: How Far Away is the Data? Registers On Chip Cache On Board Cache Memory Disk 1 2 10 100 Tape /Optical Robot 10 9 6 Olympia This Hotel This Room My Head 10 min 1.5 hr 2 Years 1 min Pluto 2,000 Years Andromeda

24. 24 Consequences AutoManage Storage Sixpacks (for arm-limited apps) Raid5-> Raid10 Disk-to-disk backup Smart disks

25. 25 Auto Manage Storage 1980 rule of thumb: –A DataAdmin per 10GB, SysAdmin per mips 2000 rule of thumb –A DataAdmin per 5TB –SysAdmin per 100 clones (varies with app). Problem: –5TB is 60k$ today, 10k$ in a few years. –Admin cost >> storage cost??? Challenge: –Automate ALL storage admin tasks

26. 26 The “Absurd” Disk 2.5 hr scan time (poor sequential access) 1 aps / 5 GB (VERY cold data) It’s a tape! 1 TB 100 MB/s 200 Kaps

27. 27 Extreme case: 1TB disk: Alternatives Use all the heads in parallel –Scan in 30 minutes –Still one Kaps/5GB Use one platter per arm –Share power/sheetmetal –Scan in 30 minutes –One KAPS per GB 1 TB 500 MB/s 200 Kaps 200GBeach 500 MB/s 1,000 Kaps

28. 28 Drives shrink (1.8”, 1”) 150 kaps for 500 GB is VERY cold data 3 GB/platter today, 30 GB/platter in 5years. Most disks are ½ full TPC benchmarks use 9GB drives (need arms or bandwidth). One solution: smaller form factor –More arms per GB –More arms per rack –More arms per Watt

29. 29 Prediction: 6-packs One way or another, when disks get huge –Will be packaged as multiple arms – Parallel heads gives bandwidth –Independent arms gives bandwidth & aps Package shares power, package, interfaces…

30. 30 Stripes, Mirrors, Parity (RAID 0,1, 5) RAID 0: Stripes –bandwidth RAID 1: Mirrors, Shadows,… –Fault tolerance –Reads faster, writes 2x slower RAID 5: Parity –Fault tolerance –Reads faster –Writes 4x or 6x slower. 0,3,6,..1,4,7,..2,5,8,.. 0,1,2,.. 0,2,P2,..1,P1,4,..P0,3,5,..

31. 31 RAID 10 (strips of mirrors) Wins “wastes space, saves arms” RAID 5: Performance –225 reads/sec –70 writes/sec –Write 4 logical IO, 2 seek + 1.7 rotate SAVES SPACE Performance degrades on failure RAID1 Performance –250 reads/sec –100 writes/sec –Write 2 logical IO 2 seek 0.7 rotate SAVES ARMS Performance improves on failure

32. 32 The Storage Rack Today 140 arms 4TB 24 racks 24 storage processors 6+1 in rack Disks = 2.5 GBps IO Controllers = 1.2 GBps IO Ports 500 MBps IO

33. 33 Storage Rack in 5 years? 140 arms 50TB 24 racks 24 storage processors 6+1 in rack Disks = 2.5 GBps IO Controllers = 1.2 GBps IO Ports 500 MBps IO My suggestion: move the processors into the storage racks.

34. 34 It’s hard to archive a PetaByte It takes a LONG time to restore it. Store it in two (or more) places online (on disk?). Scrub it continuously (look for errors) On failure, refresh lost copy from safe copy. Can organize the two copies differently (e.g.: one by time, one by space)

35. 35 Crazy Disk Ideas Disk Farm on a card: surface mount disks Disk (magnetic store) on a chip: (micro machines in Silicon) Full Apps (e.g. SAP, Exchange/Notes,..) in the disk controller (a processor with 128 MB dram) ASIC The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail Clayton M. Christensen.ISBN: 0875845851

36. 36 The Disk Farm On a Card The 500GB disc card An array of discs Can be used as 100 discs 1 striped disc 50 Fault Tolerant discs....etc LOTS of accesses/second bandwidth 14"

37. 37 Functionally Specialized Cards Storage Network Display M MB DRAM P mips processor ASIC Today: P=50 mips M= 2 MB In a few years P= 200 mips M= 64 MB

38. 38 It’s Already True of Printers Peripheral = CyberBrick You buy a printer You get a –several network interfaces –A Postscript engine cpu, memory, software, a spooler (soon) –and… a print engine.

39. 39 Tera Byte Backplane TODAY –Disk controller is 10 mips risc engine with 2MB DRAM –NIC is similar power SOON –Will become 100 mips systems with 100 MB DRAM. They are nodes in a federation (can run Oracle on NT in disk controller). Advantages –Uniform programming model –Great tools –Security –Economics (cyberbricks) –Move computation to data (minimize traffic) All Device Controllers will be Cray 1’s Central Processor & Memory

40. 40 With Tera Byte Interconnect and Super Computer Adapters Processing is incidental to –Networking –Storage –UI Disk Controller/NIC is –faster than device –close to device –Can borrow device package & power So use idle capacity for computation. Run app in device. Both Kim Keeton (UCB) and Erik Riedel (CMU) thesis investigate this show benefits of this approach. Tera Byte Backplane

41. 41 Implications Offload device handling to NIC/HBA higher level protocols: I2O, NASD, VIA, IP, TCP… SMP and Cluster parallelism is important. Tera Byte Backplane Move app to NIC/device controller higher-higher level protocols: CORBA / COM+. Cluster parallelism is VERY important. Central Processor & Memory ConventionalRadical

42. 42 How Do They Talk to Each Other? Each node has an OS Each node has local resources: A federation. Each node does not completely trust the others. Nodes use RPC to talk to each other –CORBA? COM+? RMI? –One or all of the above. Huge leverage in high-level interfaces. Same old distributed system story. SAN SIO streams datagrams RPC? Applications SIO streams datagrams RPC? Applications

43. 43 Outline The Surprise-Free Future (5 years) –Astonishing hardware progress. Some consequences –Absurd (?) consequences. –Auto-manage storage –Raid10 replaces Raid5 –Disc-packs –Disk is the archive media of choice A surprising future? –Disks (and other useful things) become supercomputers. –Apps run “in the disk”